Global model runs discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Id say looking at it in reality, the next storm will be by June 2011

[cycloneye]

None of the global models shows tropical development thru November 30th in the Atlantic Basin, so is safe to say that the 2010 season is over,unless a renegade system forms in December.

[cycloneye]

No other explanation than a very bad feedback by GFS showing a disturbance east of Brownsville,this has to be.

[cycloneye]

Attention to all the peeps! There will be a new site for the models like GFS, NAM etc that you have to bookmark.It will be in operation from April 5th.

Present site of Models until April 5th 2011

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

New site for Models from April 5th 2011

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

[hiflyer]

Thanks! Went right into the favorites.....nice

[HUC]

Thank's cycloneye. and hello to all; we are always here i and Gusty wind ..in three monts!!!

[cycloneye]

Thank's cycloneye. and hello to all; we are always here i and Gusty wind ..in three monts!!!

Welcome back my friend in the butterfly island. Yes,time goes fast and the hurricane season will be here soon enough.Dont forget to visit the Caribbean - Central America Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&p=2119103#p2119103

[cycloneye]

Yes, I know we are in March,but something interesting caught my eye and that is why I am posting this GFS run, where it shows something turning warm core in the Central Atlantic??



Also,I am bringing this long range run that shows deep tropical moisture surging towards the SE Caribbean,when normally is the dry season in the Caribbean.But so far in 2011,the SE Caribbean has seen above normal rainfall in the dry months of January,Febuary and March. It wont be too long before GFS and company,will start to show the first real shot to develop.

[Florida1118]

Hmmm...Well if GFS isn't pulling our leg then I could see Arlene as a STS or maybe even Tropical. But the GFS image is what, 14 days out? Probably will be somtihng else. And shear is very high currently, but it will be interesting to see.

[cycloneye]

Well,I thought it was only one run thing that GFS was showing that small warm core in the Central Atlantic,but GFS continues to show it and guess what,it has company as CMC has it too.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF joining GFS/CMC on a subtropical or tropical feature?

[Florida1118]

Well if everyone is starting to join in, I guess we'll have to watch it and keep checking the TWD. I don't see how they can develop with the shear the way it is though and the SST aren't very warm.

[tolakram]

Some spin, but nothing obvious at the surface yet.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Florida1118]

Clouds diminished a bit but still spinning. Waters aren't very warm though. I don't know if its in the TWD or not but here it is-
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/071139.shtml?

[wxman57]

Still another 3 months before any real tropical development out there.

[cycloneye]

Still another 3 months before any real tropical development out there.

Unless there is a surprise development,I agree. This thread was started in early March of 2009 with all the Global Models showing something NE of the Leeward Islands and nothing occurred. The same situation has happened this year,with the models trying to have at least a subtropical feature,but also,nothing occurred.

[wxman57]

With the NHC getting more and more lenient as to what they'll consider a system worth naming, we may see more and more pre-season semi-tropical systems get names in the future. It's getting harder and harder to make it all the way to August before that "A-storm" is named. I'll be happy if the season doesn't get going until mid August, though I do expect an early-season storm maybe in the 2nd week of June.

[cycloneye]

We dont have to wait until April 5th as it was announced in past weeks,as the date for the new model guidance site for the runs of GFS,NAM etc,as right now is operational.Nothing on the pipe per models right now.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

[cycloneye]

GFS will be upgraded on April 26

Among the changes,will be to take out some bugs at the 192 hour timeframe. Let's see when after the upgrade,GFS turns into the best model among the global.

Model Changes:
--Set new thermal roughness length
--Set minimum moisture value in Stratosphere to 1.0x10-7
--Reduce background diffusion in the Stratosphere

Product Changes:
-Correct error in the 192 hr, 12-hr precipitation bucket

The three model changes and the 192 hr precipitation change
listed above are designed to address shortfalls introduced
with the 27 July 2010 GFS resolution increase. The issues
being addressed are:

--increased low level warm bias over land
--negative temperature bias in the stratosphere
--negative wind speed bias in the stratosphere
--error in the calculation of the 12 hr accumulated
precipitation at 192 hrs only.

Data Availability:

The format and content of all GFS data sets will remain
unchanged. GFS data is currently available on NOAAPORT, the
NWS FTP server, the NCEP server and in NOMADS. The location
of the data will remain unchanged.

Product delivery timing of the GFS products is not expected
to change as a result of this implementation

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... pgrade.htm

[South Texas Storms]

Do yall like the new NCEP model page? I don't really like it so far because when I'm out and about I like to check the NCEP models on my Blackberry phone and it doesn't work as well and as fast as it does on the old NCEP model page.