2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#101 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 9:03 pm

I believe it can be presumed the strongest winds were not measured, and I also think it was weakening at the time of the Recon report. As a result, that is the basis for what I think was 90 kt for a peak intensity.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#102 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 9:19 pm

I noticed that the 983mb pressure reported in Barbados (which is far from the Recon estimates used in the TCR - the BT is 997mb) is verified as an actual report, but I guess they call it unrepresentative? It seems reasonable to me...Recon may have been way off at that point. IMO, the Barbados landfall intensity was 80 kt (pressure 983mb).

Also at 02/0100Z (BT intensity 40 kt), a ship reported 60 kt winds. That was probably unrepresentative.
0 likes   

christchurchguy
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:31 am

Re: 2010 Tropical Cyclone Reports=Hurricane Tomas is up

#103 Postby christchurchguy » Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:23 pm

This passed virtually over my roof.

lowest pressure at this http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICHRISTC13&month=10&day=30&year=2010 coastal station was 992.4 mb.

I'm thinking the real central pressure at Barbados landfall might have been 993mb as most recording stations convereged around that point. Could the pressure have been some type of mesoscale feature?

CrazyC83 wrote:I noticed that the 983mb pressure reported in Barbados (which is far from the Recon estimates used in the TCR - the BT is 997mb) is verified as an actual report, but I guess they call it unrepresentative? It seems reasonable to me...Recon may have been way off at that point. IMO, the Barbados landfall intensity was 80 kt (pressure 983mb).

Also at 02/0100Z (BT intensity 40 kt), a ship reported 60 kt winds. That was probably unrepresentative.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 329 guests