When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

#21 Postby **AdamFirst** » Thu Mar 10, 2011 11:36 pm

I'm saying late June (21-30)

Probably in the Bay of Campeche or in the Caribbean somewhere

grentz7721 · #22 Postby **grentz7721** » Sun Mar 13, 2011 8:13 pm

I'm going to say June 11-20, voted for that part.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 10:19 am

Those who have not voted yet,you still have time until the 31rst to do so,but dont leave it to the last day,as you may forget. This poll is like a pre season in sports as is before the big poll of the numbers that opens on April 1rst.

boca · #24 Postby **boca** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 11:40 am

Went with the last week of June.

#25 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:04 pm

So does everyone lose because of Arani?

After all, it was the first named storm of the year in the Atlantic Basin... just not the basin we're used to!

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:18 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:So does everyone lose because of Arani?

After all, it was the first named storm of the year in the Atlantic Basin... just not the basin we're used to!

I fixed the title to add North

Hurricane Jed · #27 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Those who have not voted yet,you still have time until the 31rst to do so,but dont leave it to the last day,as you may forget. This poll is like a pre season in sports as is before the big poll of the numbers that opens on April 1rst.

You mention the poll of the numbers so I'm a little confused. Does that mean it is going to be a poll on how many storms we think will form?

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:58 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Those who have not voted yet,you still have time until the 31rst to do so,but dont leave it to the last day,as you may forget. This poll is like a pre season in sports as is before the big poll of the numbers that opens on April 1rst.

You mention the poll of the numbers so I'm a little confused. Does that mean it is going to be a poll on how many storms we think will form?

Yes,every year since 2007,we have had a poll about what set of numbers the members think,the season may have. The members say the following= Number of storms/ number of hurricanes/ number of major hurricanes. If you go to the announcement section at the top of this forum,you will see the announcement about this poll that will start on April 1rst at Noon EDT.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=110235&start=0

#29 Postby **gigabite** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:37 pm

2011 New Moon at aphelion is over Saudi Arabia with analog years of 1977, 1952. They are low storm count years, first storm was the 3rd week in August both years.

New Moon at Noon

Hurricane Jed · #30 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 7:51 pm

Therefore you believe there's a chance we could be inactive this year?

#31 Postby **gigabite** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:18 pm

near apogee 7/1/2011, Saudi Arabia 12:00:00 am zulu
New Moon at Noon

#32 Postby **MGC** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:23 pm

There have been active seasons that didn't get rolling till August.....I voted for the first week in July.....MGC

#33 Postby **gigabite** » Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:36 pm

I would think that with the reportedly high stratospheric moisture content and the kicking off of the solar max at least a slight rainfall increase might be anticipated, but that might not offset the long amount of time that the optimum moisture collection phase is over dry land.

Crostorm · #34 Postby **Crostorm** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:10 pm

24 may

FireRat · #35 Postby **FireRat** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:02 pm

May 20-30, first hurricane like in 1951.

Macrocane · #36 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:09 pm

I voted for the first week of June (June 2 is my guess).

#37 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:16 pm

Those who still have not voted have less than 24 hours to do so as the poll closes tommorow at 8:13 PM EDT.

Kat5 · #38 Postby **Kat5** » Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:02 pm

My pick is the Middle of June.

#39 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:14 pm

The voting is over as the poll has closed.But if any member wants to make comments about this question,go ahead as the thread will remain open for that.

xcool22 · #40 Postby **xcool22** » Thu Mar 31, 2011 7:44 pm

may 20

When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

When will the first system form in the North Atlantic Basin?

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New Moon at Noon, Go Fly a Balloon.

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