Texas Severe Weather Thread 2011

[srainhoutx]

Something to keep an eye on is a potent Spring like storm later next week into the weekend. The SPC is already mentioning severe weather chances in the extended period for next Wednesday/Thursday...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE...AND APPARENTLY UNPREDICTABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP
BEGINNING AROUND TUE/D4 AS THE MODELS TRY TO HANDLE AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA CA AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH FORECAST TO SINK SWD...OR RETROGRADE...ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
AND WRN CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...A BROAD WSWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL ENCOMPASS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH/LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND ON TUE/D4. BEHIND THIS NE
TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ERN STATES WITH GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED OFFSHORE.

BY WED/D5...THE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN STATES...AND A
RETURN FLOW BEGINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH TX BY WED AFTERNOON.

FROM WED/D5 ONWARD IS WHERE MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN BAJA CA
COAST BY 00Z THU...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. IF THE LATTER SOLUTION OCCURS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND TX...AS
EARLY AS WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EWD ON THU WITH A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW. THE GFS...BEING MUCH
SLOWER...DEVELOPS A SEVERE THREAT ON LATE THU OVER OK/TX...WITH A
MUCH WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ON THUR AFFECTING THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY.

WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WED/D5 INTO THU/D6 FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO INTRODUCE ANY OUTLOOK AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/19/2011

[srainhoutx]

This morning the SPC has ramped up the potential for Severe Weather for parts of TX/OK/AR and points E. This may well be the first significant threat of the season as we move to closer to the end of February...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA
COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP
TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/20/2011

[cheezyWXguy]

This morning the SPC has ramped up the potential for Severe Weather for parts of TX/OK/AR and points E. This may well be the first significant threat of the season as we move to closer to the end of February...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA
COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP
TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 02/20/2011

Wow, thats pretty aggressive. FWD NWS doesnt seem to buying into it yet, only wording the forecast with showers and an isolated thunderstorm. However, as we've seen with winter weather events so far this winter, they are often rather conservative with severe events of any kind until there is certainty. 5 days out is still a good ways out, but I figured the possibility would have been mentioned by now with such strong potential.

[RL3AO]

Well, it is almost March and I don't think theres been anything close to a moderate day yet.

Its gotta start ramping up soon.

[newtotex]

Im pretty sure they can't tell this far in advance but is this looking like its going to me one of those moderate CAPE days?

[Kelarie]

Out of Shreveport for this week, just a snippet...

A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS NW TX...AMPLIFYING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT
SHIFTS NE INTO SE OK/WRN AR. WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAMPER
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY /CAPES ~500-800 J/KG/...STRONG SHEAR AND
0-3KM HELICITIES OF 300-500 M2/S2 IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD A
SVR THREAT WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
EXTREME NE TX/SE OK INTO SW AR DURING PEAK HEATING NEAR THE WARM
FRONT/SFC LOW TRACK. HAVE MAINTAINED SVR WORDING FOR THE I-30 CORRIDOR
OF NE TX...AS WELL AS SE OK/SW AR...BUT SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED FARTHER S. DID REMOVE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING AS THE SVR
THREAT WILL BE MORE DOMINANT...AND QPF WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY
HIGH FOR THIS EVENT. THE CONVECTION/ATTENDANT SVR THREAT WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO OPEN
UP/ACCELERATE E AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH COOLER AIR SPILLING SE
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.

A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMMENCES IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW PROGGED TO DROP S ALONG THE W COAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING E ACROSS AZ/NM SUNDAY...AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EARLY MONDAY. AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS A WARM FRONT WILL WORK NWD ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
SUNDAY...AS THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP/ACCELERATE E ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE DYNAMIC THAN THURSDAY/S
SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS AS TO THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED LOW/ATTENDANT SFC
LOW...WITH THE ECMWF MORE OF THE DOOM AND GLOOM MODEL FOR OUR
REGION IN TERMS OF A SVR THREAT...AS IT TAKES THE TRACK OF THE LOW
FARTHER S ACROSS N TX/N LA. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE
UNTIL LATER RUNS CAN GRAB A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TRACK AND
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE DAY IS SLATED LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING...AS CONVECTION
HAS ALREADY FIRED ACROSS NW TX/CNTRL OK/NRN AR...AHEAD OF THE OPEN
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION ATTM. THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT N THIS MORNING...AND EXTENDED FROM CNTRL
OK...INTO EXTREME NE TX N OF A SLR...TO TXK...TO JUST N OF AN ELD/LLQ
LINE AS OF 10Z. GIVEN A 40KT SWRLY LLJ IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO ECNTRL OK/NRN AR...WITH MID
60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FARTHER N ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SFC
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW TX JUST E
OF CDS...WITH THE SFC LOW TRAVERSING NE ACROSS CNTRL OK ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE TODAY...AND INTO NRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS LOW BY A FEW MB
TODAY/TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A FASTER AND MORE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
W TX DRYLINE...AS IT IS JUST E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CNTRL TX BY 21Z
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

SCT CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN FIRING ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN
15-18Z...SPREADING/FILLING NE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK BY 18Z. MORNING
STRATUS WILL LIMIT INSULATION TODAY ACROSS NE TX/SE OK BEFORE THE
CONVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES
STILL WELL W OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE 00Z SHORT TERM PROGS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH BY AFTERNOON FROM DEEP E
TX NE INTO NW LA/SW AR S OF THE ADVANCING SFC LOW...WITH THIS TROUGH
FOCUSING STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS BNDRY AS WELL...AS A 50-60KT SWRLY LLJ
DEVELOPS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 0-3KM SRH/S OF
250-350 M2/S2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED IN THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT AS
WELL THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS N LA/SW AR...BUT THE PROGS REMAIN
RATHER WEAK ON SFC BASED CAPES /500-800 J/KG/. HOWEVER...DO BELIEVE
THAT WE WILL SEE BREAKS IN THE LOW STRATUS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
NCNTRL LA/PARTS OF DEEP E TX...RESULTING IN TEMPS REACHING/SURPASSING
80 DEGREES. SHOULD THESE AREAS NOT MIX OUT AS MUCH AS WHAT THE 00Z NAM
INDICATES...THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED...IN AN ALREADY STRONGLY SHEARED/BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT. THUS...WE COULD SEE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING DRYLINE...WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AR/N LA. LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
THE ONGOING POPS FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH DID EXTEND SVR MENTION IN THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. HOWEVER...DID REMOVE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS THREAT WILL BE BRIEF AS A MORE LINEAR LINE
DEVELOPS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...AND
QUICKLY ADVANCES E OUT OF THE REGION PRIOR TO 06Z.

[srainhoutx]

Yikes! Wild fires are spreading across the TX Panhandle and the Midland area this afternoon...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING...CORRECTED
AMARILLO/POTTER/RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
410 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
AMARILLO...POTTER AND RANDALL OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO A WILDFIRE
THREATENING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: RICHLAND ACRES AND RANCH
ACRES...AND THEN ALSO FOR TIMBERCREEK CANYON...PALISADES...TANGLE
AIRE...AND LAKE TANGLEWOOD. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE RIVER FALLS AREA OF RANDALL COUNTY. RESIDENTS NEED TO
EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

CANYON COUNTRY CLUB HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
ORDER.

RESIDENTS EVACUATING THE WILDFIRES IN THE WILLOW CREEK AREA SHOULD
REPORT TO THE RECEIVING POINT AT THE PLEASANT VALLEY METHODIST CHURCH
AT 316 VALLEY. THE RECEIVING POINT FOR THOSE RESIDENTS EVACUATING FROM
THE SOUTH WILDFIRES IS THE COWBOY CHURCH AT WASHINGTON STREET AND
LOOP 335 (HOLLYWOOD ROAD).

$$

SCHNEIDER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TXC233-280015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
305 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE BORGER
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

A WILDFIRE IS THREATENING THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CITY OF BORGER. THE
BORGER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ORDERED THE RESIDENTS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CITY OF BORGER TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

$$

SCHNEIDER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TXC065-375-381-272345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
232 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE AMARILLO
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

A WILDFIRE IS THREATENING NORTHEAST POTTER COUNTY AND A MANDATORY
EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR: MESILLA PARK...EL RANCHO...AND WEBB
ROAD IN NORTHEAST POTTER COUNTY. PEOPLE IN THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY.

$$

SCHNEIDER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
MIDLAND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
MIDLAND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE PUBLIC IS REQUESTED TO STAY AWAY FROM WEST LOOP 250/INTERSTATE
20 AREA DUE TO SMOKE AND FIRE CONDITIONS IN THAT AREA. INTERSTATE
20 IS SHUTDOWN DUE TO EMERGENCY VEHICLES WORKING THE AREA.

[somethingfunny]

You can not only see the dry line trying to pop up through the cap, but get a load of all the dust and smoke in West Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Lubbock webcam showing the blowing dust...

[Metalicwx220]

Squall line starting to develop. What if it becomes a derecho?

[somethingfunny]

Well....so much for initiating east of the Metroplex.

[Kelarie]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
559 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...NORTH
OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH TO NEAR THE RED RIVER OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PRECLUDE A RISK
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT...AS MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE
GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH
THE STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
DEVELOP...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THESE AREAS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY EAST OF A MONROE...TO WINNFIELD AND COLFAX
LOUISIANA LINE...WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY...AND AS DRIER AIR SPREADS EAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

[somethingfunny]

Well this has been a boring start to the severe season.

[vbhoutex]

Well this has been a boring start to the severe season.

Somehow I count that as a good thing. However, it doesn't give us much to discuss about the weather. Can you say withdrawal?

[Ntxw]

Looks like La Nina and drought must be taking a toll on the severe weather season. Not much action along tornado alley so far this year. Added to last year this has got to be the most boring stretch of 2 years severe weather wise in the plains I've ever seen. I wonder if the cold late 70s were the same. Sigh...no snow in winter thread, no severe weather here >.<

[MSUDawg]

Forget snow or severe....just give me some RAIN!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Forget snow or severe....just give me some RAIN!!!!!

AMEN to that!! We are under an inch for the year.

[South Texas Storms]

When will El Nino come back? I hate Texas droughts!

[jasons2k]

Time for the cricket track. Or cactus forum....nothing in sight yet except maybe something early next week....