Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8401 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:18 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST THU MAR 24 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AT THE SFC...ATLC RIDGE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
NORTH OF 20N AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE ESE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROF AT MID LEVELS WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGH
PRES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX FEATURES TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION XCPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST
SOUTHEAST NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO SIG MID OR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
THAT COULD CAUSE WINDS TO BACK AND ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AT ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. A LIGHT E TO
SE L/LVL WND FLOW OF 5-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL BLO 15K FT.


&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
NEXT FIVE DAYS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK RATHER DRY WITH
LITTLE CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OTHER THAN SOME WEAK ISOLD
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. SOIL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ACROSS ALL OF PR AND THE USVI WITH LATEST
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) VALUES RANGING FROM 434 IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR UP TO 778 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ON A SCALE
THAT GOES FROM 0 TO 800. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR NOW HAS ALL OF SOUTHEAST PR AND PORTIONS OF WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PR UNDER D0 CATEGORY OR AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY. MOST
RECENT NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX (NDVI) IMAGERY FROM
THE MODIS INSTRUMENT ONBOARD NASA`S TERRA SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES
THAT MOST OF THE VEGETATION ACROSS PR AND THE USVI IS IN POOR HEALTH
AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR WHERE MUCH HEAVIER FUELS MADE UP OF WET MONTANE
FOREST EXIST. THE PAST TWO WEEKS THE REGION EXPERIENCED PREDOMINANT
NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH KEPT THINGS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING THEIR TOP FIVE COOLEST MARCH SO FAR
ON RECORD. WHILE NO DAYS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS LOOK LIKE WE
WILL EXPERIENCE PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS OR EXTREMELY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AS OPPOSED TO
NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES INCREASING THE RISK OF
IGNITION OF FUELS FROM SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION. IN
SUMMARY...INCREASING WILDLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN
DAYS DUE TO FURTHER LOSS OF SOIL MOISTURE DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES
REMAINS LOW DUE TO WINDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH.


&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT IN ST CROIX...2011 REPRESENTS
THE SIXTH DRIEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WITH ONLY 2.57 INCHES OF
RAIN BEING MEASURED. IN ADDITION...MARCH 2011 ALSO REPRESENTS THE
FOURTH COOLEST MARCH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 75.8F.

FOR THE CYRIL E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2011 REPRESENTS THE
THIRD COOLEST MARCH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 76.5F.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 74 82 / 10 10 20 20
STT 74 83 75 83 / 10 10 10 10

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8402 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 24, 2011 6:18 pm

Parts of Puerto Rico are now included in the drought monitor site.Let's see how this evolves in the next few weeks to see if a drought establishes or not.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8403 Postby Macrocane » Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:41 pm

Hi. Minimum temps are still cooler than normal in most of Central America (except Belize and Panama) though most of the locations were a little warmer than yesterday on the other hand the maximum temps are getting pretty warm but that's normal for March.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13°C (55°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 18°C (64°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.4°C (45.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 5°C (41°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Coldest since Feb 7.
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 0.3°C (32.5°F) 2nd coldest for this month.
Panama city, Panama 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30°C (86°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20°C (68°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37°C (99°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.8°C (82.0°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.1°C (84.4°F) 2nd warmest for this month.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8404 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 25, 2011 6:08 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
STABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
A UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA OVER THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NWS/FAA DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL LANDMASS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RADAR ONLY REPORTED A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF ST CROIX.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
ALSO THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST A JET MAXIMA OVER THE REGION TODAY THAT
WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS.
THEREFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE INTRODUCED TO THIS AFTERNOON
FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AT FIRST ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
STABLE...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...AND TJMZ FROM 25/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CALM AND SEAS SUBSIDE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW THAT JUST CAME OUT FROM THE EAST U.S.
AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL GENERATE A
SWELL BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL MISS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF
THIS ENERGY IN THE FORM OF SWELL WILL BE REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS
ON SATURDAY. MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST SEAS HIGHER THAN 5 FEET
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SWELL BUT WILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE
SWELLS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THIS SWELL
EVENT...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS MODERATE SWELL THAT COULD
AFFECT EXPOSED WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 76 / 30 10 20 30
STT 83 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8405 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:21 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

PRC017-021-039-047-051-054-091-101-105-135-143-145-252100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0014.110325T1804Z-110325T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-
TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-
204 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA
ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...BARCELONETA...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 155 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THESE AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WAS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND MOROVIS...COROZAL...NARANJITO AND TOA
ALTA...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT AN 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A 1 INCH OR
MORE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 5 PM AST.
IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6658 1848 6624 1842 6626 1840 6620
1828 6616 1827 6656

$$
RAM
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8406 Postby Macrocane » Fri Mar 25, 2011 1:30 pm

Hi, 4 earthquakes occurred today in just one hour, the epicenters were located inland in the western part of the country near Laguna Verde (a small volcanic lake). The magnitudes were 3.2, 2.6, 2.8 and 2.6. No damages have been reported. More info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107415&p=2121196#p2121196
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8407 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 25, 2011 2:40 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS
GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS PRODUCING A
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR AT MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERING MOST OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. NEVERTHELESS...SATELLITE DERIVED
TPW IMAGERY INDICATES A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH VALUES
AROUND 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE JET
MAXIMA ALOFT NEAR PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECT
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...ALLOWING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THESE CLOUDS. AS JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE
FAVORABLE...EXPECTING WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES TO GROW PROGRESSIVELY MORE ACTIVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS OVR PARTS OF N CTRL AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PR WILL DISSIPATE BY 25/22Z LEAVING MOSTLY VFR CONDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME AFTN SHOWERS WILL FORM AND DRIFT IN VCNTY OF TJMZ...TJBQ...
AND TJSJ TIL 25/22Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL WNDS WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15KTS AND VEERING WITH HGT BLO
15K FT.


&&

.MARINE...WIND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 17 KT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS. THE DIRECTION WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 10
STT 74 84 76 84 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8408 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 25, 2011 3:12 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

PRC001-013-027-065-141-252200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0015.110325T2001Z-110325T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADJUNTAS PR-UTUADO PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
401 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ADJUNTAS...UTUADO...CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 355 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AND SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN
AND AROUND UTUADO AND ADJUNTAS...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT AN 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 6 PM AST. IN ADDITION...RUNOFF FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6685 1843 6666 1826 6661 1820 6677

$$

FIGUEROA
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8409 Postby Macrocane » Fri Mar 25, 2011 11:02 pm

Minimum temperatures are still cool in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Costa Rica but a little warmer than the previous days. The maximum temps were near normal in most of the countries but in El Salvador and Honduras where they were cooler than normal. By the way, San Jose in Costa Rica had its warmest high for this year so far.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18°C (64°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9°C (48°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22°C (72°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.2°C (57.6°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.0°C (41.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29°C (84°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19°C (66°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36°C (97°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.4°C (81.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.3°C (86.5°F) Warmest for this year so far.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8410 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:14 am

Good morning.Afternoon showers due to diurnal phase will again fall in interior PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS PRODUCING A MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NWS/FAA DOPPLER RADAR REPORTED ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITHOUT
AFFECTING NAY LAND MASS. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUD SKIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND GENERATE AN INCREASE ON CLOUD AND SHOWER
COVERAGE. THE WIND HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
THEREFORE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

THE SUB TROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE GOOD VENTILATION
ALOFT...ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WIND MAXIMA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH A MORE STABLE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 26/18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...AND TJMZ FROM 26/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 26/22Z IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...THE WW3 CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED TO LOW THAT CAME OUT OF EASTERN U.S. 48 HOURS AGO
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH AN
INCREASE ON SWELL HEIGHTS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...
MARINERS COULD EXPECT A SMALL TO MODERATE NNW SWELL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 10 10
STT 84 75 84 74 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8411 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 26, 2011 1:38 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

PRC013-027-065-081-141-262115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0018.110326T1829Z-110326T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UTUADO PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
229 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO...LARES...CAMUY...HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 222 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OR
MOVING INTO IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERIODS
OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6690 1848 6674 1831 6669 1828 6691

$$

ET
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

PRC013-017-039-054-091-141-145-262100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0017.110326T1800Z-110326T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-UTUADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-
200 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...UTUADO...BARCELONETA...MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 154 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS CIALES...UTUADO WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND
INTO ARECIBO...BARCELONETA...FLORIDA...AND MANATI DURING THROUGH THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 3 PM. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6674 1853 6645 1850 6644 1831 6646
1831 6668

$$

TIRADO
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8412 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 26, 2011 2:22 pm

Except for the usual diurnal showers in interior Puerto Rico, dry weather for the most part will be the rule for the NE Caribbean in the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC..AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF 30 NORTH WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM...AS IMPULSES/JET
SEGMENT ALONG JET STREAM CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
LOW LEVELS LEVEL ONLY FRAGMENT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN PWAT VALUES BUT RANGING BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE WAS SUFFICIENT POCKETS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO INDUCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE PROXIMITY
OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ALSO AIDED IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION
PRODUCING SOME EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET GIVING WAY TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION OVER LAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT OVERALL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
TRADE WIND MOISTURE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND LEAD TO BRIEF DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...STILL
FORESEE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE MENTIONED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN
REINFORCE ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK SO
EXPECT SOME SUPPRESSION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. FOR
THE MOST PART MUCH OF THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY EXCEPT FOR THE PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AT LEAST TIL 26/22Z SHRA/TSRA PSBL AT OR NEAR TJSJ...TJMZ
AND TJBQ DUE TO AFTN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PR. THEREAFTER VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AS
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KTS BLO
15K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 84 / 20 10 10 10
STT 75 84 75 84 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8413 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 26, 2011 6:05 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

PRC039-054-073-107-141-270015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0020.110326T2216Z-110327T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-
616 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...OROCOVIS AND UTUADO

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 610 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS OR MOVING INTO IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
PERIODS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 815 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6658 1834 6645 1818 6652 1822 6666

$$

FIGUEROA
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8414 Postby tropicana » Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:11 pm

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Fri-8pmET Sat)
for Sat Mar 26 2011

TORRENTIAL RAINS IN DOMINICA, MARTINIQUE

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.8C 89F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.1C 88F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 85F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.7C 87F trace
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.2C 86F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 32.0C 90F

Melville Hall, Dominica 26.2C 79F 92.7mm
Canefield, Dominica 29.4C 85F 7.9mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 28.9C 84F 28.0mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.8C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 28.9C 84F trace
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.9C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.5C 89F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Havana, Cuba 32.0C 90F
Miami, Florida 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.3C 83F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.3C 70F

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.6C 84F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.1C 88F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.4C 87F

-justin-
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8415 Postby Macrocane » Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:31 pm

Hi. The trend of the temps in Central America today:
-Belize, Guatemala and Honduras experienced warmer than normal lows. In the rest of the countries they were normal.
-Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras registered cooler than normal highs, the rest of the region registered near normal highs.
-Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama had their warmest highs for this year so far though that doesn't mean that they were above normal.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18°C (64°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11°C (52°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21°C (70°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.7°C (58.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.6°C (61.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.8°C (60.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29°C (84°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18°C (64°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35°C (95°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F) Warmest of the year.
Esteli, Nicaragua 28.2°C (82.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.4°C (86.7°F) Warmest of the year.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 35.2°C (95.4°F) Warmest of the year.
Boquete, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8416 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 26, 2011 8:53 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2011

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL REMAIN DRY.
INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH
TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL
ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8417 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 27, 2011 6:12 am

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC..AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLAND THROUGH MID MORNING.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE SUBTROPICAL JET...NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS
GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE
THE CLOUD AND SHOWERS COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 27/18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...AND TJMZ FROM 27/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 27/22Z IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE GENERATING A SMALL CHOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 74 84 73 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8418 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 27, 2011 11:29 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2011

.UPDATE...LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATING
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LOCALLY THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS...STILL
FEEL THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND FAIRLY FAVORABLE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND DID NOT SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS
CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8419 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:04 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A OVERALL SUBSIDENT AND
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER... LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY STILL SHOWED SUBTROPICAL JET LIFTING PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS IT ROUNDS THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS INFLUENCING THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AND MAINTAINING AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT LINGERING POCKETS OF MOISTURE
TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...
TERRAIN EFFECTS AND SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION FOR AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LESSER OR NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...
EXPECT A CHANGE IN THE SCENARIO AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AS AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH/EASTERLY PERTURBATION
AND ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. STILL HOWEVER DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...BUT DO EXPECT
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND ENHANCEMENT OF THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS DURING THAT
TIME. ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEREFORE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE
VICINITIES OF TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 27/22Z OR 27/23Z...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 73 86 / 10 10 10 10
STT 73 84 74 85 / 20 20 20 20

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8420 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 27, 2011 2:52 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2011

PRC011-013-027-065-081-083-093-097-125-131-141-272215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0021.110327T1924Z-110327T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICAO PR-SAN GERMAN PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
LARES PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-ARECIBO PR-
324 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO...SAN GERMAN...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...LAS MARIAS...
LARES...CAMUY...HATILLO...MAYAGUEZ...ANASCO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 321 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SOME
SECTIONS OF THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA
AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH
IS EXPECTED THROUGH 615 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6720 1832 6704 1837 6692 1837 6689
1840 6676 1834 6673 1829 6676 1824 6682
1812 6700

$$

BCS
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