2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262133Z - 262230Z

PARTS OF ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A COUPLE OF STRONGER
TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 20Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX /THE COUNTIES OF
BANDERA TO BLANCO AND TRAVIS/. SO FAR...HAIL PRODUCED BY THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWWD
FROM EXTREME SWRN AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...JUST WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NERN TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE CU
APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND GIVEN
THAT THE FLOW IS VEERED IS BOTH LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN
BECOME SUSTAINED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER LIMITATION FOR GREATER TSTM COVERAGE
IS THE APPARENT LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

..PETERS.. 03/26/2011

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Chance of Thundersto​rms

Pesky cool front continues to push southward this morning and is well south of progged model positions. Front currently extends offshore of SW LA through the upper TX coastal waters to south of Corpus Christi. North of this boundary a cool and drier air mass has advected southward into the region with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s on NNE to NE winds. South of this boundary temperatures remain in the muggy 70’s.

Expect this front to finally pull up stationary in the next few hours and then begin a slow track back northward as a warm front late tonight into early Tuesday as the next storm system develops over New Mexico and begins to head for north TX. Not sure how quickly this boundary will return northward as large sprawling high pressure system over the Great Lakes will help keep the boundary surpressed and models are likely too quick in bringing it northward across the area on Tuesday. As has been the case for much of the past few months, warm mid level temperatures continue to hamper convective chances, and today will be no different.

Changes appear more likely by late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a strong storm system moves across N TX and brings a strong front across the area. Moisture will rapidly return across C TX tonight and early Tuesday helping to sharpen a dry line feature to our west. Locally, will slowly move the warm front back northward on Tuesday to a position from near College Station to The Woodlands to Liberty by late afternoon. Breaks in the cloud cover south of this boundary along with a returning humid Gulf air mass will result in building instability by late afternoon, however forecast soundings still remain capped over the region and do not expected thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon, maybe a few showers under the capping inversion.

Short wave and cold front will advance across the region Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with our best shot at rainfall in a while. Cooler mid level temperatures and frontal lift should help break the capping inversion, although unfavorable time of day does cast some doubt how weak the capping will be. Still expect the dry line out west along I-35 and the front to spark scattered convection by early evening which will move/develop into SE TX and the TX coastal plain by late evening/overnight. There does appear to be some chance at severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large hail and strong winds. Main severe threat looks to be just north and east of our area or more toward Louisiana. SPC Day 2 outlook has outlined a large part of the area for a risk of severe storms, except for the Matagorda Bay region. Will take a closer look at severe parameters tomorrow as it becomes more clear as to when the capping may/will break and the amount of instability and shear available at that point.

Drier and cooler air will move across the region behind the cold front Wednesday yielding a nice end to the week.

[southerngale]

Keep an eye on the sky!

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-291800-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
517 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A WARM FRONT RETURNING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE...AND A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/LAKECHARLES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

[PTrackerLA]

Tornado watch in effect til 10pm, but we sure did miss the cells that went severe east of here earlier. Here's hoping we do get the 1"-2" of rain forecasted tonight, we really need it. Next good chance of rain after this is a week away.

[CajunMama]

1" - 1.25" hail reported in Leonville, a small town about 20 miles or so northeast of here. Tornado reported near Port Barre also. I am sitting at the UL baseball game with no storms in sight here.

[PTrackerLA]

Sure is humid tonight and feels like summer. Dewpoint 70 and temps still in the mid to upper 70s at this hour. Storms are increasing over SE TX/SW LA and into the gulf so I believe it's only a matter a time before we get some action. Was hoping to be able to see a good thunderstorm before bed time tonight, it feels like it's been forever! Hurry up rain!.

[vbhoutex]

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 75
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
834 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-201-239-291-321-473-481-300900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.A.0075.110330T0134Z-110330T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
75 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS
COLORADO FORT BEND GALVESTON
HARRIS JACKSON LIBERTY
MATAGORDA WALLER WHARTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
BAY CITY...BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLUMBUS...
DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...
WHARTON AND WINNIE.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-300900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.A.0075.110330T0134Z-110330T0900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
75 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS

MATAGORDA BAY GALVESTON BAY
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM

$$

[vbhoutex]

According to radar rain and storms are increasing in the Houston metro area and to the East near Beaumont and surrounding areas. Some of the storms in the Beaumont area seem to be increasing in strength and may go severe(jmho). Please keep your weather radios on and/or follow this developing situation through your local media.

[Jagno]

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen this many advisors posted at once.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast

[southerngale]

According to radar rain and storms are increasing in the Houston metro area and to the East near Beaumont and surrounding areas. Some of the storms in the Beaumont area seem to be increasing in strength and may go severe(jmho). Please keep your weather radios on and/or follow this developing situation through your local media.

You were right.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1012 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...PORT NECHES...NEDERLAND...GROVES...CENTRAL
GARDENS...BEAUMONT...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...MAURICEVILLE...
BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1012 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
GARDENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CENTRAL GARDENS...NEDERLAND AND ROSE CITY BY 1020 PM CDT...
PORT NECHES AND GROVES BY 1025 PM CDT...
VIDOR BY 1030 PM CDT...
BRIDGE CITY BY 1035 PM CDT...
ORANGEFIELD BY 1040 PM CDT...
MAURICEVILLE BY 1045 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

[vbhoutex]

We just had our spit of rain here at the house. So promising on radar and it just about died right over the house. I'm going to play heck trying to get some green grass if this keeps up. I may have to just keep the nice straw looking yard I have now. I've been enjoying the nice comfortable temps we have been having, but WE NEED RAIN!!!!

[Jagno]

Hmmmm, it regenerated over my house. Talk about a helpless feeling sitting here watching the hail pummel DH's new truck sitting in the driveway. It seems to be dying out now. We certainly didn't get as much rain with this as I'd expected but at this point I'll take what I can get. Stay safe everyone!

[CajunMama]

Nada here in Lafayette, Jagno. We missed out AGAIN.

[southerngale]

I thought everything was over and didn't get squat here... just a lot of thunder from the storms around me. Anyway, just woke up to very loud thunder and lots of it! Checked radar and holy moly... Wunderground pinks and purples headed right for me. Looks strong on radar.


Edit: And there's a warning out.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC199-241-245-361-300915-
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0028.110330T0836Z-110330T0915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...SOUR LAKE...SILSBEE...LUMBERTON...
SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES EVADALE...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 337 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL....9
MILES WEST OF SOUR LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUR LAKE BY 345 AM CDT...
BEVIL OAKS BY 400 AM CDT...
LUMBERTON BY 410 AM CDT...
LAKEVIEW...WEISS BLUFF...SILSBEE AND PINE FOREST BY 415 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. STAY INDOORS...
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3020 9464 3039 9405 3015 9397 3005 9445
3011 9446 3011 9461 3012 9462 3018 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 253DEG 30KT 3014 9450

$$

27

[CajunMama]

Nada here in Lafayette, Jagno. We missed out AGAIN.

WRONG!!!!! Storms woke me up. Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rains. Hail all around the area. I don't know if it hailed here or not...too much lightning to go near a window/door so i went back to bed and hunkered down with my dogs!

[cycloneye]

Folks,be careful over there.

[PTrackerLA]

Well we ended up with a decent rain, .62" officially but some areas saw much more but I'll gladly take it. Of course the big storms came through starting around 4:30am waking me up! Looks like some really nice weather ahead through the weekend with another shot of rain with a cold front around Tuesday.

Baton Rouge to New Orleans areas got hit hard with a couple reports of tornadoes in New Orleans along with large hail. Check out this picture of the hail on the West Bank from the Times Picayune, I've never seen so much on the ground in Louisiana!

[CajunMama]

Who ordered up this beautiful weather? It's perfect

[southerngale]

I've watched my NWS forecast inch up from 50% chance of thunderstorms (some possibly severe) a few days ago to today's forecast of 90%. We have a Wind Advisory and SPC has us in a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon. The wind has really been whipping pretty strong at times. I would imagine a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued in a little while.

I hope we get some decent rain. We could use it.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Impressive late season cold front roaring southward this morning with strong winds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Front is along a line from DFW to SW TX and moving SE at 30-40mph. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has developed along the boundary over N TX where local convergence on the boundary has broken the capping inversion in place. Ahead of the front southerly flow continues to pump moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico with surface dewpoints in the sticky upper 60’s to lower 70’s across the region on gusty winds. Front will reach our northern counties around 1000am and the US 59 corridor between noon and 200pm and then off the coast by 400pm. Strong convergence along the boundary along with modest heating this morning may be enough to break the strong cap in place over SE TX. Best chances for thunderstorms will be along and east of I-45 where the cap will be weakest. Favorable shear will support some of the storms going severe if they are able to develop. Higher likelihood is that a band of showers/thunderstorms develops along the boundary and pushes across the region with the cap holding in most areas. Areas around Matagorda Bay may not see any rainfall at all as boundary layer winds switch SW prior to the front passing the region and produces significant low level drying. Will need to keep an eye on trends over the DFW area for the next few hours to see if storms are able to persist as the move SE toward our region….in fact recent radar images from the Granger radar show development west of Austin ahead of the frontal boundary suggesting the cap may not be as strong as the models have shown.

Very strong pressure rises behind the front is resulting in strong NW winds of 30-45mph behind the boundary over N and W TX this morning. Surface observations show dust/haze plumes are being generated over the rolling plains of west TX and some of this may reach our area this evening. Very strong N winds of 30-40mph will develop over the region post front. Given the spring green up is well underway over the region, even with the strong winds and very dry air mass moving into the area fire weather concerns will be marginal. Westward over C TX and SC TX into the coastal bend where vegetation is drier, fire weather concerns will be much greater with Red Flag Warnings already in place.

Very cool tonight by April standards as dry air and clear skies allow most locations to fall into the 40’s. Surface high moves eastward late Tuesday allowing an extended period of onshore flow to develop with a gradual warming and moistening trend into next week. Rain chances after today will be near zero into next weekend and this will only worsen ongoing drought conditions.