Possible Severe Weather Outbreak April 2-5?

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MENDOTA TO LADD TO
TISKILWA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

AT 1005 PM CDT PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN PRINCETON
ILLINOIS WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERU...LA SALLE...OGLESBY...SERENA...OTTAWA...MARSEILLES...
STREATOR...SENECA...MORRIS...EARLVILLE...LELAND...UTICA...
SHERIDAN...TONICA...NAPLATE...NEWARK...GRAND RIDGE...MAZON...COAL
CITY AND BRACEVILLE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTH CENTRAL CHARITON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
WESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT


* AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CONCORDIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SWEET SPRINGS...MARSHALL...SLATER...BOONVILLE...GLASGOW...
WAVERLY...BLACKBURN...HOUSTONIA...MALTA BEND...PILOT GROVE...NEW
FRANKLIN...GRAND PASS...MOUNT LEONARD...NELSON...BLACKWATER...
GILLIAM...ARROW ROCK...LAMINE AND FRANKLIN.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* AT 1006 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR IOLA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONSON...DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...
HAMMOND...HARDING...MAPLETON...MARMATON...PETERSBURG...REDFIELD...
UNIONTOWN AND XENIA.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1009 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR ADRIAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...CREIGHTON...URICH...MONTROSE...DEEPWATER...CALHOUN...
BALLARD...HARTWELL...LA DUE...COAL...BROWNINGTON AND TIGHTWAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1017 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1014 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF DEXTER...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WINFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEDAN...CEDAR VALE...ELGIN...CHAUTAUQUA...PERU...HALE AND NIOTAZE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1018 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...
FOND DU LAC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1015 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEAVER DAM...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WAUPUN AND BRANDON AROUND 1035 PM CDT.
RIPON AROUND 1040 PM CDT.
OAKFIELD AND ROSENDALE AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
FOND DU LAC AIRPORT AROUND 1050 PM CDT.
FOND DU LAC AND NORTH FOND DU LAC AROUND 1055 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FOX
LAKE...BURNETT...ATWATER...OAK CENTER...LAGODA...LAMARTINE...
TAYCHEEDAH...PEEBLES...JOHNSBURG AND CALVARY.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1023 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DANE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHWESTERN ROCK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW
GLARUS TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINSLOW...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70
MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FITCHBURG...VERONA...MONROE AIRPORT AND MONTICELLO AROUND 1030 PM
CDT.
MONONA AND OREGON AROUND 1035 PM CDT.
MCFARLAND...I90/94 INTERCHANGE...BROOKLYN AND ALBANY AROUND 1040 PM
CDT.
COTTAGE GROVE AND EVANSVILLE AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
MARSHALL...STOUGHTON AND DEERFIELD AROUND 1050 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
DAYTON...MAGNOLIA...UNION...DELAVAN...COOKSVILLE...FULTON...
INDIANFORD...UTICA...ALBION AND ROCKDALE.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 040323Z - 040430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
CONTINUES.

03Z ANALYSIS PLACED COLD FRONT FROM KMKE-KRFD-NERN MO. CONSIDERABLE
ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED FROM ERN IA INTO SRN WI WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT AS ANAFRONTAL SITUATION DEVELOPS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 6.5-8.5 DEG C PER KM
EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY MORNING MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...TSTMS APPROACHING THE CHICAGOLAND MAY BE MORE SFC-BASED
AND GIVEN DAVENPORT VWP SHOWING 50 KTS OF WSW FLOW AT HALF OF A
KILOMETER AGL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
CHICAGO METRO FROM 0330-05Z. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY.

..RACY.. 04/04/2011

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1028 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WARRENSBURG TO 5 MILES NORTH OF
URICH...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KNOB NOSTER...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...WINDSOR...SEDALIA...
LEETON...LA MONTE...GREEN RIDGE...SMITHTON...POST OAK...HUGHESVILLE
AND SEDALIA MEMORIAL ARPT.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1035 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF KILDARE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HARDY...KILDARE AND NORTHERN KAW
LAKE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT.

* AT 1031 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL BOURBON
COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DEERFIELD...HARWOOD...HORTON...METZ...
MILO...MONTEVALLO...MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA...RICHARDS...SCHELL CITY...
STOTESBURY AND WALKER.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1034 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF
SHIDLER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...GRAINOLA...FORAKER...PEARSONIA AND BIGHEART.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1041 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CHARITON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN MACON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT


* AT 1037 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF BRUNSWICK TO
SLATER TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 65 MPH IN MARSHALL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASGOW...SALISBURY...BOONVILLE...FAYETTE...HUNTSVILLE...MOBERLY...
MACON...KEYTESVILLE...ARMSTRONG...NEW FRANKLIN...HIGBEE...CALLAO...
BEVIER...CAIRO...NELSON...DALTON...ROTHVILLE...BLACKWATER...ARROW
ROCK AND LAMINE.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1041 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR STOUGHTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE RIPLEY AROUND 1050 PM CDT.
LAKE MILLS AROUND 1055 PM CDT.
JOHNSON CREEK AND JEFFERSON AROUND 1100 PM CDT.
WATERTOWN AIRPORT AND WATERTOWN AROUND 1105 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
MILFORD...IXONIA AND PIPERSVILLE.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...84...

VALID 040350Z - 040515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
83...84...CONTINUES.

PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY INVOLVES HOW FAR E THE
SVR THREAT WILL EXTEND INTO CNTRL IL AND ECNTRL MO. UPSTREAM STORMS
WERE LARGELY ELEVATED ACROSS IA AND NCNTRL MO. BUT...THERE HAS BEEN
TENDENCIES FOR ACTIVITY TO OCCASIONALLY ROOT INTO THE FRONTAL
INTERFACE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN MO THIS
EVENING.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH EVOLVED VIA MIXING OVER THE MO OZARKS TODAY...HAS
ADVECTED INTO PARTS OF WCNTRL IL AND ERN MO. SOME RECOVERY WILL TAKE
PLACE PRIOR TO UPSTREAM STORMS ARRIVING AND THIS COMBINED WITH
SOMEWHAT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS CNTRL IL AND ECNTRL MO...ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED
ACTIVITY CAN BE MAINTAINED. YET...LATEST MODELS SEEM TO NOT
MAINTAIN ACTIVITY THAT FAR E OVERNIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
BELIEVE THAT STORMS WOULD NOT BE MAINTAINED TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS
ECNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
AS SUCH...WW EXTENSIONS INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM WATCHES
83/84 WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 04/04/2011


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

[Dave]

With that I'm going to grab some sleep so I'll be ready when all this gets over into our area tomorrow. I'm sure there will be more watches issued tonight & overnight so if someone is awake go ahead and post them. G'night all and stay safe.

[Bunkertor]

770
WUUS54 KTSA 040339
SVRTSA
OKC113-040430-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0031.110404T0339Z-110404T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1034 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF
SHIDLER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
SHIDLER...GRAINOLA...FORAKER...PEARSONIA AND BIGHEART.

breaking news
SPAVINAW ( somewhere in OK ) SCHOOL ROOF BLOWN OFF BY HIGH WINDS

[Bunkertor]

Didn´t follow the D2 that closely, but it has been upgraded significantly, it seems ...



SPC AC 040559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN
TN...MS...FAR SE AR...NW AL AND A SMALL PART OF SW KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
MID-MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL TO SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY AND
TN VALLEY...

...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS TODAY
AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS
MORNING FROM SE MO SWWD ACROSS CNTRL AR. AHEAD OF THE LINE...SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
F...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS A
BROAD AREA. AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT...ORGANIZING A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS SQUALL-LINE BEGINNING NEAR THE MS RIVER IN FAR ERN AR
LATE THIS MORNING AND DRIVING THE LINE ESEWD ACROSS WRN TO MIDDLE
TN...NRN TO CNTRL MS AND NW AL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE
WILL BE ON THE SEWD SIDE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE ENHANCED ACROSS WRN
TN...NRN TO CNTRL MS...NW AL...FAR SE AR AND FAR NE LA WHERE A
MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD HAVE THE MOST
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE CROSSOVER OF
THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A THREAT
FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST SWWD ACROSS LA INTO SE TX BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS POTENTIAL MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL AND
SRN MS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE LINE COULD CONTINUE EWD INTO
SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED.

....OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
MORNING WITH A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZING IN ERN IND AND CNTRL KY
AROUND MIDDAY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -14 TO 16C SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS OH...ERN KY INTO WV BY EARLY EVENING.

[Bunkertor]

[Dave]

Love waking up to no power at my house/town this morning, non thunderstorm wind gust got a limb/line. At ema office now watching from here.