Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST THU MAR 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS....SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATED RAPIDLY BY MID MORNING...BUT REDEVELOPING EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MIMIC
TPW FROM CIMSS STILL SHOWED SOME MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...
BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT A STRONG RIDGE AT
MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. ONLY SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TOMORROW AND DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATE WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
SEABOARD BY MONDAY...INDUCING AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 3118Z/3121Z IN SHRA. WINDS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 20 10 10 20
STT 75 85 75 84 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST THU MAR 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC
PROMOTES STRONG WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90F
FRI AND SAT IN MANY PLACES. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT FOR SUN AND WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY AHEAD OF A SHEARLINE THAT IS FCST TO COME
ACROSS SUN NIGHT AND MON. BY EARLY MON...SFC WINDS TURN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BECOMING MORE LIKELY.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF THE REGION AND
HELPS TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TUE. FLAT RIDGING DOMINATES MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY LIMITED SHRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW AND VFR CONDS WILL BE THE
RULE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT BOTH ATLC AND CARIB OPEN WATERS. SEAS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FRI AND SAT WILL FEATURE VERY LOW RH
VALUES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S WITH
LITTLE CLOUD COVER. WINDS PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY
TUE WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND POOR VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS MOST
OF PR. OVERALL..SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS.

&&

.CLIMATE...MARCH 2011 WILL LIKELY END AS THE FOURTH COOLEST MARCH
ON RECORD AT THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN ST. THOMAS WITH AN AVG
TEMP OF 76.8F. AT THE HENRY. ROLHSEN ARPT IN CHRISTIANSTED...2011
REPRESENTS THE 8TH DRIEST START TO A YEAR ON RECORD WITH ONLY 3.02
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR BEING RECORDED.

[Macrocane]

Hi! Very warm maximum temps were registered again in Central America today but most of the countries had cooler maximum temps than the previous days. The minimum temps were cooler too in most of the locations.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14°C (57°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.8°C (51.4°F) Warmest for 2011.
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.7°C (47.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.3°C (59.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.9°C (44.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.3°C (59.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 40°C (104°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.2°C (79.2°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.6°C (79.9°F) Warmest for 2011.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST FRI APR 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OVERALL DRY
AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ALLOWING NORTH COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER...
IN ABSENCE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME...STILL FEEL THAT LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE
WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EACH AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT FOR SUNDAY AND WINDS BECOME MORE EAST AHEAD OF A
SHEAR LINE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION BECOMING MORE LIKELY. MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF
SHORE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER. WINDS PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND POOR VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS
MOST OF PUERTO RICO. OVERALL..SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WILD FIRE
OCCURRENCE DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 10 0 10 10
STT 85 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

The first quarter of 2011 had a deficit of rainfall of over one inch in San Juan.Last year over 15 inches fell in that three month period,but so far this year 6.17 inches has fallen.With the rainy season comming soon,is expected that the deficit will go.

Code: Select all

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.00          1.34 1953   0.09  -0.09      T
  MONTH TO DATE    1.27                      2.14  -0.87     3.08
  SINCE MAR 1      1.27                      2.14  -0.87     3.08
  SINCE JAN 1      6.17                      7.46  -1.29    15.23



[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI APR 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
THIS WEEK. NEXT WEEK A JET IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF 20 NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MID WEEK. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TROUGHING DRAPING
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES WEST...SO THAT BY THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY THE TROUGH IS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE ANOTHER HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH MIGRATES NORTHEAST DURING
THE THE WEEK...BUT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF THE FIRST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVES OFF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY WILL SAG TOWARD THE
AREA...UNTIL LATE ON THURSDAY WHEN A PART OF IT CROSSES THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FEW SHOWERS WERE EXCELLENT
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRES WHICH BROKE OUT IN A FEW PARTS OF THE
ISLAND...MOST NOTABLY IN VEGA BAJA...PONCE OR JUANA DIAZ AND
GUAYAMA. SHOWERS DID APPEAR WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM SAINT CROIX AND
MOVED ACROSS EASTERN VIEQUES...BUT AS OF 3 PM AST NONE HAD
APPEARED OVER THE MAINLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE ONLY A LITTLE TOMORROW AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES IN SAN JUAN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
INTO THE LOWER 90S AS HAPPENED TODAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY MORNING WHEN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST. BUT IN
GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONT THAT MAY
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ONLY MODESTLY BETTER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THIS PATCH
OF MOISTURE AGAIN THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST YET MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS TO COME THEN...BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 01/21Z.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2011 ENDED AS THE FOURTH COOLEST MARCH ON RECORD
AT THE CYRIL KING AIRPORT IN ST THOMAS AND THE SIXTH COOLEST AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT IN ST CROIX WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF
77.0 AND 76.8 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...2011
REPRESENTS ONE OF THE TOP 10 DRIEST STARTS TO A YEAR ON RECORD AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT IN ST CROIX WITH ONLY 3.02" OF RAINFALL SO
FAR.

STATICALLY THE MONTH OF APRIL IS MUCH WETTER THAN MARCH...
INDICATING THE TRANSITION TO THE RAINY SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE...ON APRIL 1997
ONLY 0.08" OF RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT...
MAKING IT ONE OF THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT SHIPS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
WILL HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.FIREWEATHER...MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED BY AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 4400 FEET. BUT VENTILATION WILL BE AIDED BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE FROM
NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE FEW IF ANY.
NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND SUPPRESSED MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 90 74 86 / 0 10 10 10
STT 76 85 77 86 / 10 10 10 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Thur-8pmET Fri) for
Fri Apr 01 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.3C 88F trace
Crown Point, Tobago 30.9C 88F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 29.5C 85F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 87F

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.0C 86F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.1C 86F 8.1mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 30.1C 86F 0.5mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.3C 86F 6.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.4C 87F 2.6mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F 5.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.7C 87F 0.9mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.1C 85F 0.2mm
St Thomas, VI 28.3C 83F trace
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 32.2C 90F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.2C 86F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 31.2C 88F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.3C 90F 2.0mm
Havana, Cuba 31.0C 88F
Key West, Florida 28.9C 84F
Marathon, Florida 30.6C 87F 11.2mm
Miami, Florida 31.7C 89F 3.6mm
Nassau, Bahamas 32.5C 91F
Hamilton, Bermuda 24.2C 76F 0.5mm

Timehri, Guyana 32.1C 90F 2.0mm
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.4C 87F 36.0mm

-justin-
Marath

[Macrocane]

Hi. Today was a mixed day in terms of temperatures across the region:
-Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama had warm maximum temps but not as high as in previous days.
-El Salvador experienced below average highs and it was the coolest day of the week.
-Guatemala and Costa Rica had one of the warmest days of the year.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.1°C (48.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F) Warmest since Feb 28.
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.8°C (60.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.8°C (40.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F) Warmest since Feb 23.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.2°C (77.4°F) Warmest for 2011.
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.7°C (96.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.9°C (82.2°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 31.2°C (88.2°F) Warmest for 2011.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Mainly dry weather will continue for the next few days in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST SAT APR 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OVERALL DRY
AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT
IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME AND COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR TODAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW NORTH
COASTAL AREAS TO AGAIN HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...AND THIS MAY BE THE CASE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...DEPENDING UPON WHEN SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEAST. IF THEY SHIFT EARLY ENOUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IT WONT BE AS WARM AS IF THE WIND STAYS EAST SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE EAST
NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEAST AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL OFF SHORE WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN AND THE
MONA PASSAGE TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILD FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS FUEL DRYING CONTINUES AND WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASE. OVERALL..SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WILD FIRE OCCURRENCE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
WETTING RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 75 86 74 / 20 10 10 40
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

I think is the first time that I do this in this thread,but I say,Happy Birthday to Patti in St Maarten.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT APR 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A JET MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER
OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH 50 WEST TO THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DURING THE WEEK THE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE FLORIDA STRAIT BY FRIDAY AT WHICH TIME A
WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AIR
AT MID LEVELS IS COMPLETELY DRY EXCEPT ON FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MOVES NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD HIGH ON THURSDAY THAT
MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY AND SOUTH OVER NEXT WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING.
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
MORNING OVER ALL BUT SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND WHERE
A TENUOUS STREAMER EXTENDS AWAY FROM SAINT CROIX...ACROSS VIEQUES
AND CEIBA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GENERATED BY A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVE
NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HAS MADE THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RAIN FREE TODAY. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND AS A RESULT SHOWERS WILL
GREATLY DECREASE AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR. THE CLEARER SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER CONVECTION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SOME SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO COME ON SHORE TO AFFECT SAN JUAN
AND OTHER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. BUT
ORIGINAL EXPECTATIONS WERE PROBABLY TOO HIGH AND HAVE REDUCED THE
POP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PATCHY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING/PASSING JET AND
SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WINDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AT LOWER
LEVELS MAY INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BETTER PATCH OF MOISTURE
MOVES BY...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DRIFT AND CANNOT BE
CONFIDENT OF SUCH WEAK FEATURES THAT FAR OUT. &&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SHRA THRU 02/22Z. TJSJ 02/12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE NOW THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
TAPER BACK A LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER MINI-MAXIMUM ON
FRIDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN...FOR SEAS. AGAIN MODELS APPEAR TO
OVERDO MAXIMUM HEIGHTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 10 10 30 30
STT 75 86 76 86 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

It was a warm day again in Central America and even the minimum temps are starting to rise.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F) Warmest for 2011 and warmest since September 2010.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.0°C (53.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16.6°C (61.9°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.8°C (42.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (87.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29°C (84°F) Warmest for 2011.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.3°C (72.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 29.1°C (84.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F) Warmest for 2011.
Panama city, Panama 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Fri-8pmET Sat) for
Sat Apr 02 2011


Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.8C 91F trace
Crown Point, Tobago 30.8C 87F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.1C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 87F trace

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.1C 86F 1.0mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.0C 86F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 30.3C 86F trace
LeLamentin, Martinique 30.3C 86F
Melville Hall Airport, Dominica 29.4C 85F 0.6mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 31.8C 89F

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.2C 86F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.9C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.7C 87F 0.8mm
Kingston, Jamaica 30.7C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.6C 91F
Havana, Cuba 33.6C 93F
Key West, FL Keys 28.3C 83F trace
Marathon, FL Keys 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.0C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 31.2C 88F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.8C 69F 14.0mm

Hato Airport, Curacao 28.9C 84F
QUeen Beatrix, Aruba 31.6C 89F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.2C 86F

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.5C 87F 47.6mm
Timehri, Guyana 31.2C 88F 0.6mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST SUN APR 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. BROAD LONGWAVE TROF FCST TO EVOLVE
ACROSS THE WEST CNTRL ATLC LATER IN THE WEEK AND EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE SRN CARIBBEAN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST LATER TODAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC INCREASING THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ATTM WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE THERE.
THESE WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION
MOST OF THE DAY AND ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS WRN PR
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. STILL NOT MUCH SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA MON TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRES GRADIENT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BUT EXPECT TO SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
AS INVERSION WEAKENS/LIFTS SOMEWHAT. TUE WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF
CLOUDS WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS PW VALUES RISE SLIGHTLY
AND WINDS DROP A BIT.

THINGS DRY OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AGAIN FOR WED AS RIDGE MUSCLES UP BEFORE
IT GETS DISPLACED WESTWARD AS MEAN TROF BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ATLC SWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER
CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL SHALLOW CONVECTION LATE IN THE WEEK UNDER
INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS INCREASE TO 5-7 FT BOTH ATLC AND CARIB OPEN WATERS
IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AND THUS SFC WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY MON-TUE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THOSE DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 40
STT 85 75 85 77 / 0 10 10 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN APR 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER IN THE
WEEK AND EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST THIS
EVENING AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
REPORTED. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE AND EVENTUALLY STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...THE DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MOISTURE REACHING
OUR LOCAL REGION IN PATCHES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TIST IN SHRA THRU 03/22Z. TJSJ 03/12Z SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY...THEREFORE A SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 73 84 / 30 10 40 40
STT 75 86 76 86 / 10 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
816 PM AST SUN APR 3 2011

PRC039-073-101-141-040315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0023.110404T0016Z-110404T0315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-JAYUYA PR-MOROVIS PR-UTUADO PR-
816 PM AST SUN APR 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...JAYUYA...MOROVIS AND UTUADO

* UNTIL 1115 PM AST

* AT 814 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED MODERATED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SOME SECTIONS OF THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST ONE INCH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 1115 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6664 1833 6642 1827 6639 1822 6664

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

It was a hot day again in Central America, and for the 9th straight day there were some locations that registered their warmest temperature for this year so far, although some stations had very cool minimum temps but that didn't made the max temps in the afternoon any cooler.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.9°C (37.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 8.1°C (46.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16.4°C (61.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.3°C (37.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.1°C (62.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.9°C (78.6°F) Warmest for 2011.
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.3°C (91.9°F) Warmest for 2011.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.6°C (103.3°F) 2nd warmest for 2011.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F) Warmest for 2011.
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28.5°C (83.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.9°C (82.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A more moist weather pattern develops this week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK.
RIDGE COLLAPSES LATER IN THE WEEK AS TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ATLC. HIGH PRES NEAR 30N AND 70W WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT 36 HRS
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC INCREASING THE LOCAL PRES
GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ARE LIFTING OUT OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN ABSENCE OF ANY SYNOPTIC LIFT OR DEEP
MOISTURE DO NOT FORESEE MUCH AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY. MOISTURE
HOWEVER INCREASES RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING TRADES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TRADES DIMINISH RAPIDLY
TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AS CENTER OF H5
HIGH RETROGRADES TOWARD THE AREA. RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON THU AS
TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS THE ATLC. WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WED NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR VERY
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST. RIDGE
COLLAPSES COMPLETELY BY THE WEEKEND WITH TROF FCST TO DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OUT
OF THIS IS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT TIME OF THE YEAR STRONGLY
FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF TROF AXIS WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER DEEP MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NWD FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS WHAT IS SUGGESTED IN THE LATEST 00Z
ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS WITH VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST THROUGH
ABOUT 04/15Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BTW 04/17Z-04/22Z. WINDS MAINLY EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ATLC. SEAS BUILD TO 6-8 FT ATLC WATERS AND
5-7 FT CARIB WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 75 / 20 50 70 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 20 60 70 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THRU MID WEEK.
RIDGE COLLAPSES LATER IN THE WEEK AS TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ATLC. HIGH PRES NEAR 30N AND 70W WILL STRENGTHEN NEXT 36 HRS
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC INCREASING THE LOCAL PRES
GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO A CU THAT DEVELOPED OVER
CULEBRA AFFECTED TH EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO AN AREA
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.


A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...NORTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO...WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY ENE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING TRADES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL SHOWERS UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HRS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 04/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE WAVE WATCH 3 IS SUGGESTING THE
ARRIVAL OF A NNW SWELL LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE LATEST MODEL RUN DO NOT SHOW WINDS ABOVE THE MINIMUM
SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 85 / 50 70 20 20
STT 75 85 76 86 / 60 70 20 20

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Apr 4 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.1C 90F 15.2mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.5C 87F 1.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.1C 88F trace

Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.3C 86F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.2C 86F trace
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.5C 85F 0.7mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 30.2C 86F

LeLamentin, Martinique 30.1C 86F
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.5C 87F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 31.7C 89F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.1C 85F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.7C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F 1.0mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.9C 88F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.5C 87F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.1C 90F 0.5mm
Havana, Cuba 31.8C 89F
Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Miami, FL 29.4C 85F
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.6C 66F

Hato Airport, Curacao 29.4C 85F
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.7C 89F
Flamingo, Bonaire 30.7C 87F

Timehri, Guyana 32.2C 90F trace
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.5C 87F 4.0mm

-justin-