2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[southerngale]

SPC Day 1









NWS LCH discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING A
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION INCLUDING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CLOUDINESS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH EQUALLY
STRONG OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WEST OF CALCASIEU PASS OUT BEYOND 60 NM. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENT LOCATED OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS
AM WILL DIVE TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID
70S. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS DROP QUICKLY INTO MID 50S WITH 40S
OVER OKLAHOMA.

THIS LATEST FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT IS WITH WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT BUT WILL SLACKEN A BIT DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
AND GUSTY. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL END AROUND AN HOUR OR SO
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEAN AREA RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT AN INCH WITH TWO TO
THREE INCHES POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE DRAWING TO A CLOSE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF. IN THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND THROUGH SUNRISE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY LATE
IN THE DAY. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE AROUND 15 TO 25
PERCENT. ON SUNNY SKIES TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 70 OR SO.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 78 45 71 49 78 / 80 10 0 0 0
KBPT 77 45 72 51 77 / 90 10 0 0 0
KAEX 78 41 70 44 78 / 90 10 0 0 0
KLFT 83 45 70 46 77 / 90 30 0 0 0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.

GM...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
BAY.

GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

[vbhoutex]

Well I hope someone gets some rain out of this frontal passage. I'm not!

[Tireman4]

Wow, it just died. I mean it hit a wall and died. Goodness.

[Flyinman]

We may have received 10 drops I am bothered by the pattern of development to our North, fizzle out, then redevelop to the South and East. This seems like the cylce the past few years. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[southerngale]

I couldn't believe how it just fell apart about where I thought it was supposed to START getting its act more together. It did start to build back up though and storms are currently approaching my area. It's very dark outside and we've got a Tornado Watch here, but they don't look nearly as impressive as I had imagined. We'll see.

[vbhoutex]

We may have received 10 drops I am bothered by the pattern of development to our North, fizzle out, then redevelop to the South and East. This seems like the cylce the past few years. Wash, rinse, repeat.

My thoughts exactly!! I do not like the pattern I am seeing. We've had a total of 4.63" of rain so far this year at the house. Most of it was in January with .57" in Feb. and .7" in March.

[PTrackerLA]

We got missed badly, barely enough rain to wet the ground. Squall line congealed and intensified as it moved east of here and hammered the eastern part of the state with lots of power outages. Didn't want that but a good soaking would have been nice in this drought!

[vbhoutex]

We hit 90f today. I do hope this is not a harbinger of temps to come. It is usually late April or early May before we get that hot. Meantime the entire area is getting closer and closer to exceptional drought. 3 more metro counties were added to the burn bans today also.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-111100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.A.0003.110411T1700Z-110412T0100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MADISON...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON...AND
MONTGOMERY.

* WIND...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.

* HIGHEST THREAT...IS LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO EL CAMPO.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

[vbhoutex]

I washed both vehicles this afternoon trying to set off some rain. The above shows how much good it did. There isn't a drop in sight in TX last time I looked at radar.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff:

Code: Select all

One of the worst wildfire days in Texas history occurred yesterday.
 
Drought conditions across SE TX deepen into the “exceptional” category or the worst category on the US drought index scale. Current drought is the second worst since the late 1800’s with the 1950’s multi year drought being the worst on record. 
 
Red Flag Fire Warning issued for all of SE TX for today.
 
Upper level trough which brought strong tornadoes to the upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday brought very strong winds across Texas this weekend. The strong winds along with very low surface RH and bone dry vegetation led to one of the worst wildfire outbreaks the state has ever experienced. Fires already burning over west TX from last week exploded on Sunday as surface winds of 35-55mph resulted in rapid forward fire growth. In Potter County alone an ongoing fire went from 1,000 to 65,000+ acres in a few hours on Sunday afternoon. The Midland County fire which was also burning prior to yesterday expanded to 16,500 acres and burned 34 homes. In Presidio County the Marfa Fire burned an unknown number of acres and 20-30 homes.  In the last 7 days, 200 wildfires have burned 187, 113 acres across the state of Texas. 25 states are currently supplying resources to the state of Texas including both ground and air support to attempt to contain ongoing fires.
 
Cool front will move across the region this morning ushering in a very dry and windy air mass. Critical fire weather concerns will be met at many locations today leading to potential rapid and explosive wildfire growth. Very strong cap in place this morning has and will continue to prevent thunderstorms from developing and the lack of rain will only worsen the ongoing drought and fire weather.  Afternoon RH is expected to fall to less than 20% west of I-45 and 20-30% east of I-45 and this combined with NW winds of 15-20mph and very dry surface fuels all support a high fire danger this afternoon and evening. Highest threat area will be in the Montgomery and Walker county areas where fires have been the last few days in the dense forest regions. The state of Texas and the Texas forest Service has equipment and manpower prepositioned in the region to quickly respond to any wildfire.
 
Otherwise, little change from our dry and windy weather for this week. What appeared to be a decent shot at rainfall for this Thursday has slowly trended toward another dry frontal passage as strong aping will prevent anything from developing along the boundary over SE and S TX. Winds will be weakest on Tuesday for the first time in days and then swing back to the south and increase on Wednesday. Should see strong southerly flow Thursday as the next trough approaches from the west and passes well north. Wednesday/Thursday are looking to be dangerous fire days across the state and suspect a few very large and fast moving fires will develop.
 
Drought Update:

After another very dry week the drought index update last Friday pushed much of the area into an exceptional drought, indicating significant impacts from drought on vegetation and livestock. Since February 1st, Conroe has only received .97 of an inch of rainfall and at Huntsville only .49 of an inch. Below are the rainfall amounts and departures for the past six months from the National Weather Service.:
 
 
LOCATION      OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB    MAR    TOTAL  PERCENT
                                                           OF NORMAL
 
BELLVILLE     0.00  1.28  0.98  2.75  0.76   1.14    6.91  35.7
NORMALS       3.70  3.76  3.16  3.33  2.48   2.92   19.35
DEPARTURE    -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72  -1.78  -12.44
 
BRENHAM       0.03  1.42  1.28  4.15  0.81   0.80    8.49  40.3
NORMALS       4.48  4.17  3.29  3.41  2.78   2.93   21.06
DEPARTURE    -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97  -2.13  -12.57
 
COL STATION     T   0.90  0.81  2.99  0.61   0.69    6.00  31.3
NORMALS       4.22  3.18  3.23  3.32  2.38   2.84   19.17
DEPARTURE    -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77  -2.15  -13.17
 
COLUMBUS      0.00  2.59  1.30  3.51  0.64   0.48    8.52  41.1
NORMALS       4.16  3.99  3.21  3.61  2.84   2.93   20.74
DEPARTURE    -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20  -2.45  -12.22
 
CONROE          T   5.33  1.49  4.04  0.61   0.35   11.82  49.3
NORMALS       4.70  4.79  4.37  4.21  2.97   2.94   23.98
DEPARTURE    -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36  -2.59  -12.16
 
CROCKETT      0.85  3.43  1.12  5.29  0.70   0.35   11.74  51.7
NORMALS       4.22  3.93  4.02  4.00  3.10   3.45   22.72
DEPARTURE    -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40  -3.10  -10.98
 
DANEVANG      0.00  2.40  4.28  3.62  0.37   0.05   10.72  53.5
NORMALS       4.56  3.68  3.08  3.23  2.67   2.83   20.05
DEPARTURE    -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30  -2.78   -9.33
 
GALVESTON     1.37  6.90  2.13  3.86  0.67   2.70   17.63  87.7
NORMALS       3.49  3.64  3.53  4.08  2.61   2.76   20.11
DEPARTURE    -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94  -0.06   -2.48
 
FREEPORT      0.03  3.86  1.75  4.21  0.84   0.81   11.50  51.2
NORMALS       4.52  4.42  3.51  4.29  2.84   2.87   22.45
DEPARTURE    -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00  -2.06  -10.95
 
HOU HOBBY     0.07  4.75  5.84  4.10  0.34   0.78   15.88  66.1
NORMALS       5.26  4.54  3.78  4.25  3.01   3.19   24.03
DEPARTURE    -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67  -2.41   -8.15
 
HOU IAH       0.02  2.71  3.04  5.05  0.69   0.78   12.24  54.6
NORMALS       4.50  4.19  3.69  3.68  2.98   3.36   22.40
DEPARTURE    -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29  -2.58  -10.16
 
HUNTSVILLE    0.58  2.01  1.23  3.62  0.37   0.07    7.88  32.6
NORMALS       4.32  4.87  4.10  4.28  3.14   3.47   24.18
DEPARTURE    -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77  -3.40  -16.30
 
LIVINGSTON    0.14  3.23  1.38  3.73  0.89   0.84   10.21  40.0
NORMALS       3.82  4.76  4.92  4.64  3.47   3.89   25.50
DEPARTURE    -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58  -3.05  -15.29
 
KATY          0.00  2.01  1.73  4.76  0.05   1.24    8.55  41.4
NORMALS       4.00  4.41  3.67  3.34  2.59   2.64   20.65
DEPARTURE    -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54  -1.40   -9.46
 
MADISONVILLE  0.21  1.05  1.09  2.89  0.81   0.95    7.29  33.3
NORMALS       4.41  4.01  3.62  3.81  2.83   3.24   21.92
DEPARTURE    -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02  -2.29  -14.63
 
MATAGORDA     0.05  2.85  1.66  3.42  0.61   0.89    9.48  48.7
NORMALS       3.72  4.19  2.57  3.63  2.81   2.54   19.46
DEPARTURE    -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20  -1.65   -9.98
 
NEW CANEY     0.00  6.18  2.71  6.42  0.96   0.90   17.17  67.9
NORMALS       4.57  4.83  4.40  4.22  3.31   3.96   25.29
DEPARTURE    -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35  -3.06   -8.12
 
SOMERVILLE    0.03  0.88  0.80  2.77  0.41   0.08    4.97  25.9
NORMALS       4.33  3.63  3.14  2.93  2.53   2.62   19.18
DEPARTURE    -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12  -2.54  -14.21
 
TOMBALL         T   3.28  1.00  2.52  0.30   1.24    8.34  35.8
NORMALS       4.02  5.11  3.89  3.85  3.33   3.09   23.27
DEPARTURE    -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03  -1.85  -14.93
 
WASH ST PARK  0.00  1.17  1.29  3.76  0.66   1.08    7.96  38.3
NORMALS       4.38  3.68  3.30  3.54  2.74   3.13   20.77
DEPARTURE    -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08  -2.05  -12.81
There appears to be little relief in sight as the 7-14 days period continues to show a dry signal in the CPC outlooks and model data. Drought conditions will only continue to worsen.
 

[Flyinman]

WOW WOW WOW WOW!! I received a little over .25" this morning. Looked like the front fizzled then showers redeveloped just as it approached the house. Not a ton of rain but given the circumstances I will take what I can get!

[vbhoutex]

I figure every little spit counts these days!! We had 0.08" here at the house. It actually was a relatively heavy shower, but it lasted all of 5 minutes. Now that we're in the exceptional drought designation every drop counts.

[Flyinman]

Yes every drop counts. That is the difference between really really exceptional drought and really exceptional drought. Yes, I have made up new categories. Not to change the subject, but I am not looking foward to the event that busts our drought!

[vbhoutex]

Yes every drop counts. That is the difference between really really exceptional drought and really exceptional drought. Yes, I have made up new categories. Not to change the subject, but I am not looking foward to the event that busts our drought!

Nor am I. The worse this drought gets it is more than likely the event that breaks it will be a very significant weather event also. That has been proven over and over here in TX. Once, just once, I would like to see our drought or "long hot summer" broken by a steady soaking rain event as opposed to the usual TC of some sort or flood event.

[Flyinman]

I grew up in Beaumont and moved away from there in 2008. I lived there almost 33 years with the exception of College. The house I grew up in was built in 1975 and we never had a sprinkler system put in. I remember getting showers almost daily during the summer and we would rarely have to supplement our yard with water. It is amazing to me in the past 10 years how the weather patterns have changed.

Yes, the facts are the facts and even if it is not a TC it will be one of those days where we receive 8" to 10" of rain. I too am ready to get back to the more even rainfall!

[Ptarmigan]

Nor am I. The worse this drought gets it is more than likely the event that breaks it will be a very significant weather event also. That has been proven over and over here in TX. Once, just once, I would like to see our drought or "long hot summer" broken by a steady soaking rain event as opposed to the usual TC of some sort or flood event.

I hope to see this drought end too. I think it will be a large weather event like in the past. I know the big drought of the 1950s ended in a severe flooding event in 1957. I would not be surprised if it ends by a tropical cyclone.

[Flyinman]

Looks like at the end of the 7 day forecast there may possibly be some low pressure areas close enought to bring a little rain. Fingers crossed this way!

[South Texas Storms]

When do you guys think our drought will end across all of Texas? It is getting so bad everywhere. I hate our droughts!!

[vbhoutex]

When do you guys think our drought will end across all of Texas? It is getting so bad everywhere. I hate our droughts!!

Sometime between May and October since we normally have some sort of tropical weather event to end droughts here in TX.