WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 12.8N 135.2E POOR
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 15.5N 140.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Forecast to be our first TS of the year.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 12.9N 135.8E POOR
MOVE E 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 15.7N 141.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.5N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 139.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
WEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
032351Z APR 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 040000)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.6N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.5N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 142.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 050353Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING,
FROM WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS LOCATED JUST
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (APPROXIMATELY 25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE. TD 02W IS QUICKLY TRACKING
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
TD 02W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH DIGS SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 24,
TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES SHEARED AND DISSIPATES BEFORE COMPLETING ETT. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, EXCEPT FOR
GFDN, WHICH TRACKS TD 02W EASTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
THIS IS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT AND THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS,GFS, UKMO, AND ECMWF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z
AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Northern Marianas going to go get the brunt of this, really still do expect this to remain a weak ET system as it goes off towards the NE, good news only have a few TS warnings. Nothing to severe.

*On that note though, you don't see this to often in this theater, a NWS warning for a tropical.*

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050959 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP022011
800 PM CHST TUE APR 5 2011

CORRECTION TO UPDATE TIMES

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS AGRIHAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
290 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN ISLAND
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
280 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W BETWEEN AGRIHAN AND PAGAN AROUND 8 AM CHST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 800 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 143.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 143.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.8N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 18.5N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 144.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ob out of Siapan, are seeing winds near small craft conditions but nothing to severe, shoot, I'm seeing winds near Okinawa near 30kts right now due to the Asiatic high ridging in, so kind of putting that in to perspective.

PGSN 051454Z 20016G23KT 10SM SCT025 BKN033 BKN100 28/26 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP048 T02780256 58008

[RobWESTPACWX]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051021Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 30
TO 35 KNOTS, INDICATING INITIAL INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE >26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 02W IS
QUICKLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
SHEARED AND DISSIPATES BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

PK wind in Siapan this hour at 26kts, nothing sustained though that is for the whole hour.

PGSN 051554Z 20014KT 10SM SCT019 28/26 A2966 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/1518 SLP041 T02780256

[phwxenthusiast]

didn't they say that the northern half of the storm is more severe?? do we have obs north of Saipan??

[RobWESTPACWX]

You know I wish we had obs N of Saipan but most of the islands in the N Marianas are very sparse, if there are obs coming from there they will be on this page

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/weatherobs.php

But ya that is right the north side is really just stronger due to the interaction with the asiatic high moving over the pacific. Thus this really isnt a tropical system. More ET at this point. Or at least thats my thoughts.

[HURAKAN]

05/1501 UTC 16.6N 144.1E EXTRATROPICAL 02W -- West Pacific

looks weird to have an extratropical cyclone below 17N

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well there is an event happening out here currently we like to call a cold surge, the leading edge of that event is interacting with this tropical low.

It all revolves around the Asiatic high you know? That causes such different weather patterns in the West pack vice the Atlantic.

[HURAKAN]

Well there is an event happening out here currently we like to call a cold surge, the leading edge of that event is interacting with this tropical low.

It all revolves around the Asiatic high you know? That causes such different weather patterns in the West pack vice the Atlantic.

Thanks for the explanation. My brain always thinks in terms of the Atlantic!