Very warm maxmimum temps were registered today but for the first time in 10 days none of them was the warmest of the year for its respective location. The minimum temps were cool in some locations and warm in others.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18°C (64°F) Warmest for 2011.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.3°C (39.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.0°C (53.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.3°C (59.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.8°C (38.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.5°C (61.7°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.2°C (102.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 25.6°C (78.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Caribbean - Central America Weather
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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST MON APR 4 2011
.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY DECENT PATCH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT
UP IN THE EASTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATION/WIND
SURGE JUST NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THEREFORE STILL LOOKING
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...INTERVALS OF PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS TKPK...TNCM..TIST..TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH
AT LEAST 05/12Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK BETWEEN 05/12Z THROUGH AT LEAST
05/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST MON APR 4 2011
.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY DECENT PATCH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAUGHT
UP IN THE EASTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATION/WIND
SURGE JUST NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THEREFORE STILL LOOKING
FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. BRIEF
DOWNPOURS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL HOWEVER BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...INTERVALS OF PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS TKPK...TNCM..TIST..TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH
AT LEAST 05/12Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK BETWEEN 05/12Z THROUGH AT LEAST
05/22Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
.UPDATE...FCST AMMENDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVS ABOVE
2000 FEET. A 0750Z ACARS FROM SJU SHOWS WINDS OF 25 KT OR GREATER
OCCURRING AT 1720 FEET WITH A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE. SO
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVS ABOVE 2000 FT CONSIDERING
LAND FRICTION. BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM 88D ALSO SHOWS SAME
MAGNITUDE WINDS AROUND 1800 FT. THE ACARS ALSO SHOWED 30-KT GUSTS
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS BUT THESE SHOULD BE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND NOT SHOULD BE THE RULE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011/
SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED THEN
COLLAPSE AS TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS THE ATLC. SFC HIGH PRES
NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH LOCAL PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WED AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN THU-SAT.
DISCUSSION...HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
WWD LATER TODAY ACROSS PR/USVI ON FRESH TRADE WINDS AND PROMISES
TO BRING A RAW DAY WITH FREQ SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES GIVEN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. MOISTURE
EXITS THE AREA QUICKLY TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH. IN FACT...MODELS
INDICATE STROND DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES
PLUMMETING TO 0.88 INCHES BY 12Z WED. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF NO
CONVECTION FORMS AT ALL WED AND THU UNDER H5 HIGH OVERHEAD.
THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...RIDGE COLLAPSES AS TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ATLC
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AND MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AND K INDICES RISING TO 1.5 INCHES AND
30 RESPECTIVELY. ANTICIPATE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE ALG THE NORTH COAST.
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS/GFES RUNS DO
NOT SHOW A FVRBL TROF POSITION THAT COULD ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICS.
AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 05/12Z...
SPREADING ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AFT 05/15Z. WINDS MAINLY EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE...SCA FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS MOST WATERS TODAY. WINDS AT
THEIR PEAK RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA BY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU-SAT AS LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. ANTICIPATE A NEW ROUND OF SCA`S
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AT THE VERY LEAST.
FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE STRONG WINDS TODAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN THICK CLOUDS AND NMRS SHOWERS. SO NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. HOWEVER...THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFTOVER
FUEL AND SOIL WETNESS FROM TODAY`S RAIN WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND FCST LOW RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANTICIPATE INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE AFTER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THU-SAT AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (AFTER TODAY) ALSO DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY GOOD WITH FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING
LESS THAN AN INCH CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM EVER OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH
OF APRIL ACCORDING TO A PW CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 1948 WHICH IS THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 70 20 10 20
STT 84 74 86 76 / 70 20 10 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
.UPDATE...FCST AMMENDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVS ABOVE
2000 FEET. A 0750Z ACARS FROM SJU SHOWS WINDS OF 25 KT OR GREATER
OCCURRING AT 1720 FEET WITH A VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE. SO
OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ELEVS ABOVE 2000 FT CONSIDERING
LAND FRICTION. BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM 88D ALSO SHOWS SAME
MAGNITUDE WINDS AROUND 1800 FT. THE ACARS ALSO SHOWED 30-KT GUSTS
AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN WITH ANY SHOWERS BUT THESE SHOULD BE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND NOT SHOULD BE THE RULE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011/
SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH WED THEN
COLLAPSE AS TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS THE ATLC. SFC HIGH PRES
NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST WITH LOCAL PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WED AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN THU-SAT.
DISCUSSION...HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE QUICKLY
WWD LATER TODAY ACROSS PR/USVI ON FRESH TRADE WINDS AND PROMISES
TO BRING A RAW DAY WITH FREQ SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES GIVEN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. MOISTURE
EXITS THE AREA QUICKLY TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH. IN FACT...MODELS
INDICATE STROND DRY AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES
PLUMMETING TO 0.88 INCHES BY 12Z WED. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF NO
CONVECTION FORMS AT ALL WED AND THU UNDER H5 HIGH OVERHEAD.
THU NIGHT-FRI MORNING...RIDGE COLLAPSES AS TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ATLC
INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS TAKE ON A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AND MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AND K INDICES RISING TO 1.5 INCHES AND
30 RESPECTIVELY. ANTICIPATE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE ALG THE NORTH COAST.
WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS/GFES RUNS DO
NOT SHOW A FVRBL TROF POSITION THAT COULD ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICS.
AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 05/12Z...
SPREADING ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AFT 05/15Z. WINDS MAINLY EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE...SCA FOR WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS MOST WATERS TODAY. WINDS AT
THEIR PEAK RIGHT NOW BUT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA BY EVENING.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THU-SAT AS LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. ANTICIPATE A NEW ROUND OF SCA`S
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AT THE VERY LEAST.
FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE STRONG WINDS TODAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN THICK CLOUDS AND NMRS SHOWERS. SO NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. HOWEVER...THINGS DRY OUT QUICKLY TONIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY LEFTOVER
FUEL AND SOIL WETNESS FROM TODAY`S RAIN WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY DUE
TO GUSTY WINDS AND FCST LOW RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANTICIPATE INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE AFTER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THU-SAT AS WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS (AFTER TODAY) ALSO DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY GOOD WITH FCST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING
LESS THAN AN INCH CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM EVER OBSERVED FOR THE MONTH
OF APRIL ACCORDING TO A PW CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 1948 WHICH IS THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT FROM THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 70 20 10 20
STT 84 74 86 76 / 70 20 10 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
...WINDY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ABOVE 2000 FEET...
PRZ006-007-009-051630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0001.110405T0822Z-110405T1900Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
422 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.
&&
$$
ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
...WINDY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ABOVE 2000 FEET...
PRZ006-007-009-051630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.WI.Y.0001.110405T0822Z-110405T1900Z/
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
422 AM AST TUE APR 5 2011
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION IS RESULTING IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OR
GREATER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS OR LAWN FURNITURE. TRUCKS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS PASSES.
&&
$$
ROSA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE APR 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC JUST
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD LATE
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING AGAIN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING
SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...DECREASING LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS THE FA...DIMINISHING
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY EARLY TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY...INCREASING AGAIN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST AND TISX THRU 06/00Z...
SPREADING ACROSS TJPS AND TJSJ THRU 06/06Z. WINDS MAINLY EAST AT 15
TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 85 / 30 10 20 20
STT 74 86 76 86 / 30 10 10 10
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tropicana
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Mon-8pmET Tues) for
Tue Apr 5 2011
THUNDERSTORM BRINGS WELCOME DRENCHING TO WESTERN CUBA
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.8C 89F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.1C 88F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 88F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.2C 86F 0.3mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.8C 87F 0.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.1C 86F trace
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 2.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.2C 85F 7.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 34.2C 94F 12.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.6C 85F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.7C 84F 1.5mm
St Thomas, VI 28.9C 84F 1.3mm
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F 2.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 5.8mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.5C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.9C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.9C 90F
Havana, Cuba 32.7C 91F 51.0mm (late afternoon thunderstorms)
Key West, Florida 28.9C 84F 7.4mm
Miami, Florida 33.3C 92F 8.6mm
Nassau, Bahamas 30.5C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.2 70F
Timehri Airport, Guyana 32.1C 90F trace
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.3C 86F 6.0mm
-justin-
Tue Apr 5 2011
THUNDERSTORM BRINGS WELCOME DRENCHING TO WESTERN CUBA
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 31.8C 89F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.1C 88F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 88F trace
Point Salines, Grenada 30.2C 86F 0.3mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.8C 87F 0.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.1C 86F trace
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 2.2mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.2C 85F 7.5mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 34.2C 94F 12.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.6C 85F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.7C 84F 1.5mm
St Thomas, VI 28.9C 84F 1.3mm
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F 2.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 5.8mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.5C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 30.9C 87F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.9C 90F
Havana, Cuba 32.7C 91F 51.0mm (late afternoon thunderstorms)
Key West, Florida 28.9C 84F 7.4mm
Miami, Florida 33.3C 92F 8.6mm
Nassau, Bahamas 30.5C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.2 70F
Timehri Airport, Guyana 32.1C 90F trace
Cayenne, French Guiana 30.3C 86F 6.0mm
-justin-
Last edited by tropicana on Wed Apr 06, 2011 8:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Today was a warm day again, only Costa Rica had a nice day with mild temps.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F) Warmest for 2011.
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.4°C (59.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 31°C (88°F) Warmest for 2011.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.1°C (75.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.2°C (99.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 29.3°C (84.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.5°C (50.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F) Warmest for 2011.
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.4°C (59.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.6°C (43.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 31°C (88°F) Warmest for 2011.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 39°C (102°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.1°C (75.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.2°C (99.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 29.3°C (84.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST WED APR 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS
DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AS A TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF TRADE WIND
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. AS A RESULT...SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD LATE TODAY...TIGHTENING
ONCE AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z FRI. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING AND MOVE ONSHORE WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/IST AND ISX. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY BUT THEY PICK UP AGAIN THU-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A NEW ROUND OF SCA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS IS LIKELY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING
IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD CLOVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER
TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP RH VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. ANY LEFTOVER FUEL OR SOIL WETNESS
FROM YESTERDAY`S AND TODAY`S SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EVAPORATE
LATER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THU
LOOKS PARTICULARLY VERY DRY WITH MIN_RH DROPPING INTO THE 35-40% FOR
A VERY LARGE PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER ON THU WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE ONES
EXPERIENCED ON TUE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THUS
ANTICIPATED THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 74 / 10 20 70 70
STT 86 75 86 76 / 10 10 70 70
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST WED APR 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AIR MASS
DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY...AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AS A TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES OF TRADE WIND
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES. AS A RESULT...SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST WITH
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD LATE TODAY...TIGHTENING
ONCE AGAIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z FRI. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS EARLY FRI MORNING AND MOVE ONSHORE WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT JSJ/IST AND ISX. WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY BUT THEY PICK UP AGAIN THU-FRI.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...A NEW ROUND OF SCA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS IS LIKELY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THIS MORNING
IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUD CLOVER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER
TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP RH VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. ANY LEFTOVER FUEL OR SOIL WETNESS
FROM YESTERDAY`S AND TODAY`S SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EVAPORATE
LATER TODAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THU
LOOKS PARTICULARLY VERY DRY WITH MIN_RH DROPPING INTO THE 35-40% FOR
A VERY LARGE PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER ON THU WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE ONES
EXPERIENCED ON TUE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THUS
ANTICIPATED THU.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 74 / 10 20 70 70
STT 86 75 86 76 / 10 10 70 70
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 PM AST WED APR 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING
BETWEEN CIALES AND SAN SEBASTIAN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 70 PERCENT FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL LOCALES GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. MONITORING THIS FOR A
POSSIBLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ISSUANCE BUT GIVEN
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER DRY AS UPSTREAM MIMIC
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR UPSTREAM. SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THU.
THINGS DO CHANGE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE
EAST. PW IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARDS 20N/60W AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SW AS
THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS THIS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
NE CARIBBEAN. THE RESULT IS THE EXPECTATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THU NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A 60 POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH POPS BEGINNING
IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS MOIST SURGE THU NIGHT.
THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...WNAWAVE SHOWS 7 FT SEAS PERSISTING OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY N OF THE VI. COULD STILL BE SOME
7 FT SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ON THU OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
SERVICE AREA. SEAS START TO INCREASE AGAIN AS WINDS INCREASE A
TAD THU-FRI. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED EVEN
FURTHER EXTENSION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 83 / 20 20 60 20
STT 75 86 76 83 / 20 20 60 20
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 PM AST WED APR 6 2011
.DISCUSSION...NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS OCCURRING
BETWEEN CIALES AND SAN SEBASTIAN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 70 PERCENT FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL LOCALES GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. MONITORING THIS FOR A
POSSIBLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ISSUANCE BUT GIVEN
ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WE HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER DRY AS UPSTREAM MIMIC
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR UPSTREAM. SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THU.
THINGS DO CHANGE THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE
EAST. PW IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARDS 20N/60W AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SW AS
THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS THIS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
NE CARIBBEAN. THE RESULT IS THE EXPECTATION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE NORTH AND EAST COAST OF PR AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
THU NIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH A 60 POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH POPS BEGINNING
IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH RAPIDLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LAPSE RATES...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS MOIST SURGE THU NIGHT.
THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...WNAWAVE SHOWS 7 FT SEAS PERSISTING OVER THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...MAINLY N OF THE VI. COULD STILL BE SOME
7 FT SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ON THU OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE
SERVICE AREA. SEAS START TO INCREASE AGAIN AS WINDS INCREASE A
TAD THU-FRI. EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NEED EVEN
FURTHER EXTENSION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 74 83 / 20 20 60 20
STT 75 86 76 83 / 20 20 60 20
&&
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Sorry for posting this so late but I was very busy at college and than got to do a lot of homework but finally I have some free time before going to bed.
Today Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama had a relief from the heat of the previous days as they had below normal maximum temps, the rest of the region was pretty warm again.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.5°C (49.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.7°C (56.7°F) Warmest for 2011.
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.5°C (76.1°F) Warmest for 2011.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16.4°C (61.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.8°C (65.8°F) Warmest for 2011.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F) Warmest for 2011.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.6°C (99.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.7°C (80.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Today Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama had a relief from the heat of the previous days as they had below normal maximum temps, the rest of the region was pretty warm again.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.5°C (49.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.7°C (56.7°F) Warmest for 2011.
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.5°C (76.1°F) Warmest for 2011.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 16.4°C (61.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.8°C (65.8°F) Warmest for 2011.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.6°C (38.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.4°C (92.1°F) Warmest for 2011.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.6°C (99.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.7°C (80.1°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.1°C (55.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.6°C (69.1°F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning.Scattered showers will be the rule late today and tonight as a weak front moves thru.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT
IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST IS ANTICIPATED. THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL EXPECT LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
DAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z FRI...THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
06Z-12Z FRI AT JSJ/IST/ISX AS SHOWERS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE. VFR AFTER 12Z FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS 15G25KT WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SVRL FIRES BROKE OUT ACROSS PR YESTERDAY. AIR MASS
TODAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MIN_RH IN THE 45-50% OR ABOUT 5-10% LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
15-20 KTS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE.
OVERALL...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU SAT
DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN 16KT...LOW RH VALUES AND POOR VEGETATIVE
HEALTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 74 / 30 60 60 20
STT 85 75 84 76 / 30 50 50 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IS EXPECT TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL
DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE LATER TODAY AS A TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE BROUGHT
IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES. AS A RESULT...
SHALLOW EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST IS ANTICIPATED. THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL EXPECT LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
DAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z FRI...THEN POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
06Z-12Z FRI AT JSJ/IST/ISX AS SHOWERS BREAK OUT ACROSS THE ATLC
WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE. VFR AFTER 12Z FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS 15G25KT WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SVRL FIRES BROKE OUT ACROSS PR YESTERDAY. AIR MASS
TODAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MIN_RH IN THE 45-50% OR ABOUT 5-10% LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
15-20 KTS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE.
OVERALL...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU SAT
DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN 16KT...LOW RH VALUES AND POOR VEGETATIVE
HEALTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 74 / 30 60 60 20
STT 85 75 84 76 / 30 50 50 10
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A RETURN TO
A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND MIMIC PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF
HIGHER MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES MOVING SW
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
MOISTURE BAND WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
THE LIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE USVI AND THE NORTH AND EAST COASTS
OF PUERTO RICO. WEATHER CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRY AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE MOISTURE BAND APPROACHES
TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE EAST REACHES
THE ISLANDS. THIS WETTER PATTERN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AFT
07/23Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...EXCLUDING THE TJPS AND TJMZ. ENE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHWRS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WINDS. EXPECT SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS
THE REST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 86 / 60 60 20 20
STT 74 86 75 85 / 60 60 10 10
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tropicana
- Category 5
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Wed-8pmET Thurs) for
Thu Apr 7 2011 (updated)
APRIL SHOWERS BLESS GRENADA, ST VINCENT, BAHAMAS
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.2C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.7C 89F 3.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F 0.2mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.0C 83F 20.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 21.5mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.9C 86F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.7C 86F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.6C 85F 1.4mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.6C 85F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.0C 84F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.2C 86F
St Thomas, VI 30.0C 86F
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.3C 86F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 30.5C 87F 0.1mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Havana, Cuba 32.5C 91F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.0C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.8C 84F 17.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.6C 66F
-justin-
Thu Apr 7 2011 (updated)
APRIL SHOWERS BLESS GRENADA, ST VINCENT, BAHAMAS
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.2C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.7C 89F 3.8mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F 0.2mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.0C 83F 20.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 21.5mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.9C 86F
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.7C 86F trace
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.6C 85F 1.4mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.6C 85F
VC Bird, Antigua 29.0C 84F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.2C 86F
St Thomas, VI 30.0C 86F
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.3C 86F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 30.5C 87F 0.1mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.2C 88F
Havana, Cuba 32.5C 91F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.0C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 28.8C 84F 17.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 18.6C 66F
-justin-
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Today was one of the coolest days of the last 2 weeks in Central America, some locations registered very warm temps but there have been warmer readings in previous days.
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.8°C (53.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.1°C (57.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.2°C (102.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.0°C (78.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.7°C (36.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.8°C (53.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.1°C (57.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)
Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.2°C (102.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.0°C (78.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Good morning. Wet weather for today in Puerto Rico.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI APR 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...IS INDUCING AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS MOISTURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED...AND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY.
A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND WAS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE STJ WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLACE THE REGION IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF JET MAX...AND LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE EARLY MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THIS BAND OF MOISTURE
EXITS THE AREA...AND A SLOT OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER... THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WITH THE EXPECTED ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION ACROSS THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS ALWAYS ...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THEREFORE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES IS MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY DURING THE PASSAGE
OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 08/14.
THE CLOUD BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 08/18-08/22. CLEARING SHOULD
BEGIN IN TNCM AND TKPK BY 08/10Z AND IN TJSJ AFTER 08/15Z. ENE-E LLVL
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SFC GUSTS OF 20-25KT MAY BE EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 20 20 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 60 20 20 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST FRI APR 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...IS INDUCING AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS. THIS MOISTURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC... AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED...AND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY.
A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND WAS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. THE STJ WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PLACE THE REGION IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF JET MAX...AND LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT
MAINTAIN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE EARLY MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THIS BAND OF MOISTURE
EXITS THE AREA...AND A SLOT OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREAFTER... THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WITH THE EXPECTED ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION ACROSS THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS ALWAYS ...THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON
THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THEREFORE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
&&
.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES IS MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BRIEFLY DURING THE PASSAGE
OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 08/14.
THE CLOUD BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...INDUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 08/18-08/22. CLEARING SHOULD
BEGIN IN TNCM AND TKPK BY 08/10Z AND IN TJSJ AFTER 08/15Z. ENE-E LLVL
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SFC GUSTS OF 20-25KT MAY BE EXPECTED AT MOST
TAF SITES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 50 20 20 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 60 20 20 30
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI APR 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS IN THE ISLANDS
VICINITY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND EXIT
THE LOCAL REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE...DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...
DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND...THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL HELP TO INDUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SCENARIO WILL CHANGE
TO A WETTER PATTERN ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS TO FAVOR AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WITH MODELS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WETTER PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
VENTILATION ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WINDS. EXPECT SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS
THE REST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST FRI APR 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS IN THE ISLANDS
VICINITY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE BAND OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND EXIT
THE LOCAL REGION THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS BAND OF MOISTURE...DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH...
DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND...THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL HELP TO INDUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SCENARIO WILL CHANGE
TO A WETTER PATTERN ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DEEP MID TO UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS TO FAVOR AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WITH MODELS SHOWING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS WETTER PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
VENTILATION ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE WINDS. EXPECT SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS
THE REST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 20 20 30 30
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tropicana
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Thu-2pmET Fri) for
Fri Apr 8 2011
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.4C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.8C 87F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.8C 87F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 85F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.2C 83F 1.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.4C 85F 0.5mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 0.2mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 28.8C 84F 4.1mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.6C 85F 4.3mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.1C 85F 8.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.4C 85F 0.8mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.1C 85F 11.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 1.0mm
Kingston, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.6C 89F
Key West, FL 29.4C 85F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.0C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.5C 69F trace
-justin-
Fri Apr 8 2011
Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.4C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.8C 87F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.8C 87F
Point Salines, Grenada 29.0C 85F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.2C 83F 1.2mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.4C 85F 0.5mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.2C 86F 0.2mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 28.8C 84F 4.1mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.6C 85F 4.3mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.1C 85F 8.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 29.4C 85F 0.8mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.1C 85F 11.0mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 1.0mm
Kingston, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.6C 89F
Key West, FL 29.4C 85F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.0C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.5C 69F trace
-justin-
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 143863
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST FRI APR 8 2011
.UPDATE...00Z SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
SHALLOW SINCE 12Z...WHILE WINDS ALSO BECAME WEAKER. WINDS REVERSE
FROM EASTERLIES TO WESTERLIES AROUND 16 THOUSAND FEET. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. LATEST MODELS SHOW IT ARRIVING AFTER 09/10Z SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MINOR POPS TONIGHT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
COASTS. SOUNDING REMAINS CAPPED AT 700 MB SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ONLY ISOLATED IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...BUT MODELS REMAIN PESSIMISTIC ABOUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOST
OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THIS WILL HINDER WHAT OTHERWISE COULD HAVE
BEEN THE BEGINNING OF THE SPRING RAINY MAX.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TIST AND TJBQ AFT 09/06Z. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL
AS BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO BETWEEN 09/16Z-09/21Z IN SHRA.
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