ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

La Nina wants to stay a little bit more according to todays SOI (Southern Ocillation Index) as the index continues to be very high.

Graphic below does not update:



Graphic below updates:

[Ivanhater]

El Nino by peak season?

[cycloneye]

El Nino by peak season?

The big question will be,which one of the ECMWF model imput will be right,the multimodel one or the other one.I would like to see the pro mets chimming in on this.

[srainhoutx]

My hunch is neutral by the start of season. I suspect that we will see El Nino return, but likely not a 'full fledge' Nino until next winter. Perhaps a weak Nino in the October/November time frame. We will see.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/4/11 Update

Nino 3.4 remains at -0.8C,the same as the past two weeks.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[MGC]

Since the PDO has gone cold, expect longer and more frequent La Nina and fewer and weaker El Nino conditions. I still think things will be about neutral for the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.......MGC

[xironman]

I don't know, we have been -PDO for while and during that had a moderate-strong nino. I thought the idea was not that the indexes effected each other, but that the combination of the two effected the ultimate signal from the pattern.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center April update

Nothuing new that may come as a surprise as Neutral ENSO is the most likelyhood status by the summer.

Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011.

La Niña weakened for the third consecutive month, as reflected by increasing surface and subsurface ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. All four Niño indices ranged between –0.3oC and –0.8oC at the end of March 2011 (Fig. 1). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 2) became weakly positive in response to the continued eastward progression of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave, which has begun to shoal in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3). However, the basin wide extent of negative SST anomalies remained considerable throughout the month (Fig. 4). Also, La Niña impacts on the atmospheric circulation remained strong over the tropical and subtropical Pacific. Convection remained enhanced over much of Indonesia and suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds have persisted in this region. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening La Niña, but with ongoing global impacts.

Nearly all of the ENSO models predict La Niña to continue weakening in the coming months, and the majority of models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral by May-June-July 2011 (three month average in the Niño-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). While there is confidence in ENSO-neutral conditions by June 2011, the forecasts for the late summer and beyond remain highly uncertain. At this time, all of the multi-model forecasts (shown by the thick lines) suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will persist from June through the rest of the year. However, the spread of individual model forecasts and overall model skill at these lead times leaves the door open for either El Niño or La Niña conditions by the end of 2011.

La Niña will continue to have global impacts even as the episode weakens through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Expected La Niña impacts during April-June 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance for below-average precipitation across much of the South, while above-average precipitation is favored for the northern Plains. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted across the northern tier of the country (excluding New England). A higher possibility of above-average temperatures is favored for much of the southern half of the contiguous U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on March 17th, 2011).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

The subsurface in the Pacific continues to warm.The question is if the warming will continue,causing ENSO to be Neutral to El Nino territory earlier than expected.

[SFLcane]

I think that neutral conditions are the most likely scenario for this year's cane season. There is a lot of model spread at the current time, which is expected, since ENSO models have their lowest levels of skill during the spring months.

[cycloneye]

There are mixed signals about ENSO right now as the subsurface is warming,meaning La Nina is going fast,but on the other hand,the 30 day SOI index continues well in positive territory (See second graphic at first post of this page,10 posts above this one),meaning La Nina is holding on.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think a neutral season is a good forecast at this time, combining the warming sub-layer and the strongly positive SOI.

[cycloneye]

The blue cool waters continue to shrink.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/11/11 Weekly Update

Nino 3.4 area warmed up to -0.6C,that is up from -0.8C that was for the past three weeks.

Niño 4= -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.6ºC
Niño 3= -0.2ºC
Niño1+2= -0.2ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

This is my first post at Talking Tropics forum after my vacation,and as I dont see posted the April update of the ENSO models,here they are.

[euro6208]

The SOI has fallen rapidly the past few days now down to 13.2, lowest since Nov-Dec of 2010.EL NINO???

20110326,20110424,30.1
20110327,20110425,30.2
20110328,20110426,29.6
20110329,20110427,28.9
20110330,20110428,29.0
20110331,20110429,27.5
20110401,20110430,25.1
20110402,20110501,21.9
20110403,20110502,19.7
20110404,20110503,19.0
20110405,20110504,17.5
20110406,20110505,16.1
20110407,20110506,15.4
20110408,20110507, 13.2

[euro6208]

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/9/11 Update

No big changes in the numbers,but Neutral ENSO is a sure thing for the summer as all signs point to that.

Niño 4= -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.5ºC
Niño 3= -0.2ºC
Niño1+2= 0.4ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi says no el nino this hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Here is a very interesting graphic that shows how ENSO has behaved in the last 3 decades. It clearly shows how similar it is right now with the 2007-08 timeframe when it was Neutral. 2011 looks to be in Neutral status for summer and possibly going into fall.