Severe Weather April 9/10/11 Upper Midwest & Deep South

[Bunkertor]

Nice triplet.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102151Z - 102315Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING
ACROSS UPPER LAKE MICHIGAN...TOWARD THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INHIBITION REMAINS CONSIDERABLE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AUGMENTATION OF STORMS/STORM
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS APPROACHING
FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 45098609 45358516 44878377 44148336 43858414 44168512
44378623 44558655 45098609

[srainhoutx]

Further E in Michigan...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102151Z - 102315Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NOW SPREADING
ACROSS UPPER LAKE MICHIGAN...TOWARD THE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INHIBITION REMAINS CONSIDERABLE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...AUGMENTATION OF STORMS/STORM
DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS APPROACHING
FORCING INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY 23-00Z.

..KERR.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO NERN MO INTO SERN IA/NWRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102203Z - 102300Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 00Z FROM
SWRN TO NERN MO INTO SERN IA/NWRN IL. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW. AN INITIAL THREAT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO INITIATION OVER PORTIONS OF
MO...AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER CNTRL IA/NRN
MO WOULD IMPLY SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...21Z SOUNDING AT
SPRINGFIELD SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS NEARLY
ERODED...WITH 5 DEGREE C COOLING AT 850/700 MB SINCE 12Z AND
MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN
AGITATED CU FIELD ALONG A DRYLINE THAT HAS MIXED EWD INTO CNTRL
IA...SWWD TO WRN MO...SERN KS...AND INTO CNTRL OK. WIND FIELDS AND
SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...ORIENTED
THROUGH ERN IA...NWRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS. AS ASCENT/HEIGHT
FALLS GENERALLY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...RAPID INITIATION MAY OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SEWD TO THE DRYLINE...GENERALLY AROUND OR AFTER 00Z AS IMPLIED BY
MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC/HI RES MODELS. INITIALLY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
WILL CONGEAL INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FORCING.

..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...

[CrazyC83]

Agreed they need a watch farther south, at least across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.

[CrazyC83]

US53 KMPX 102205
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
505 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

WIC017-035-102230-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110410T2230Z/
CHIPPEWA WI-EAU CLAIRE WI-
505 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN EAU CLAIRE
AND SOUTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 503 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR LUDINGTON...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIPPEWA
FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED
A WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM WEST OF FOSTER.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUDINGTON...CADOTT...BOYD AND STANLEY AND INTERSTATE 94.

LAT...LON 4470 9126 4495 9127 4515 9092 4515 9091
4480 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 237DEG 33KT 4483 9119

$$

[CrazyC83]

At this point I am only posting warnings that are:

1) Ground-confirmed evidence

2) Involve a larger population center

3) Strong wording (i.e. extremely dangerous...)

4) Involve extreme hail or wind (i.e. 2+ inches or 75+ mph)

[RL3AO]

At this point I am only posting warnings that are:

1) Ground-confirmed evidence

2) Involve a larger population center

3) Strong wording (i.e. extremely dangerous...)

4) Involve extreme hail or wind (i.e. 2+ inches or 75+ mph)

Thank you. Getting tired of scrolling though 200 radar based tornado warnings.

[CrazyC83]

New tornado watch coming out for northern Michigan. That activity will be headed towards me tonight.

[srainhoutx]

New tornado watch coming out for northern Michigan. That activity will be headed towards me tonight.

Until 2:00AM...

Code: Select all

MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ALCONA               ALPENA              ANTRIM             
     ARENAC               BENZIE              CHARLEVOIX         
     CHEBOYGAN            CRAWFORD            EMMET               
     GLADWIN              GRAND TRAVERSE      IOSCO               
     KALKASKA             LEELANAU            MANISTEE           
     MISSAUKEE            MONTMORENCY         OGEMAW             
     OSCODA               OTSEGO              PRESQUE ISLE       
     ROSCOMMON            WEXFORD             


[CrazyC83]

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 620 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PELLSTON MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUGHTON LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED SUSTAINED TSTMS...NOW OVER
CNTRL/NRN LK MI...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE ACROSS NRN LWR MI THROUGH
REMAINDER OF EVE...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS
ASSOCIATED AREA OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH SLOWLY-MOVING WARM FRONT
OVER REGION. GIVEN STRONG DEEP WIND FIELD...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WINDS THIS EVE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER S OF WARM FRONT IN
LWR MI HAVING WARMED THROUGH THE DAY...POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. THUS...A THREAT MAY DEVELOP FOR
ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch 122 out south of 120.

[CrazyC83]

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 610 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JEFFERSON CITY
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH
THROUGH LATE EVE ALONG MERGING DRY LINE...PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
ZONE...AND COLD FRONT FROM FAR ERN IA SWD INTO ERN MO. OTHER STORMS
MAY FORM FARTHER E ALONG SSW-NNE BAND OF CONFLUENCE NOTED OVER CNTRL
IL. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATTM APPEARS TO BE DOWNWARD IN WAKE OF
PASSING UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WI...LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY
OVERSPREAD LATER THIS EVE AS JET ENTRANCE REGION EVOLVES AHEAD OF
PROGRESSIVE LARGER SCALE UPR TROUGH. WITH SFC HEATING/LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE ALREADY HAVING INITIATED CONVECTION/STORMS IN ERN IA/NE
MO...AND WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING LARGE SCALE UVV LATER
THIS EVE...A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED STORMS.
LONG...SLIGHTLY-HOOKED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...CORFIDI

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 120...

VALID 102302Z - 110030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 120 CONTINUES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO WW 120 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

SCATTERED VIGOROUS STORMS ARE ONGOING...FROM NEAR THE DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE CENTER MIGRATING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...SOUTHWARD TO
THE VICINITY OF A 90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMUM IS IN THE PROCESS OF
NOSING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIKELY TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN ITS DISCRETE NATURE AT LEAST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THROUGH
01-02Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG MIXED LAYER CAPE
/1000-1500 J PER KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS WELL AS
PERHAPS ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TORNADIC POTENTIAL COULD
STILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 43119050 43899032 44928981 45648985 46499021 47238919
47448841 47158672 46388561 45588633 43848769 43098901
42919035 43119050

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX NEWD TO ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102317Z - 110015Z

A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA FROM NEAR SAN ANGELO TX NEWD INTO TULSA OK
IS BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND A POTENTIAL WW.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC/HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPING AROUND 00Z...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER.

THE PRESENCE OF AN EML HAS WIDELY LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH
ADEQUATE HEATING/MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN ERODING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...EVIDENCED BY AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD THAT IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT OCCASIONAL ROTATION AND LARGE HAIL FORMATION IN
STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT...WITH A RISK FOR DMGG
WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD MORE SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION BECOME APPARENT. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
COMPARISON TO AREAS FARTHER N AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS MAY LIMIT A
MORE WIDESPREAD TORNADO THREAT. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER DARK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET...WITH SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE/WEAK COLD FRONTAL
SURGE LEADING TO A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD
WITH TIME.

..HURLBUT.. 04/10/2011


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 36739430 34439587 31719895 30870071 31170106 32809872
35189643 36439550 36919468 36739430

[CrazyC83]

WWUS53 KGRB 102334
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
634 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

WIC067-069-073-115-110000-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110411T0000Z/
LINCOLN WI-LANGLADE WI-MARATHON WI-SHAWANO WI-
634 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN SHAWANO...NORTHERN
MARATHON...SOUTHWESTERN LANGLADE AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO JUST
SOUTH OF MERRILL...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF WAUSAU. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF MEDFORD.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE RIVER...AND LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF ANTIGO ON HIGHWAY 64.
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF ATHENS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE WESTERN
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9031 4504 9020 4513 9018 4513 9005
4523 9004 4534 8909 4491 8909 4494 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 262DEG 58KT 4517 8956

$$

SKOWRONSKI

[Bunkertor]

70 miles. Wow. That is fast.

[CrazyC83]

70 miles. Wow. That is fast.

Some of the Severe Thunderstorm-warned cells have been moving over 80 mph.

[CrazyC83]

New watch in Texas.

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SHERMAN TEXAS TO 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW 122...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ON AXIS
OF MERGING DRY LINE AND LEAD COLD FRONT ALONG WRN BORDER OF WW.
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENCOURAGED BY APPROACH OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER
FAR W TX. INCREASING UVV...STRENGTHENING MID/UPR LVL WIND FIELD
WITH UPR IMPULSE...AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TOGETHER
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE LIKELY
WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD MOVE MAINLY E TO
ENE THROUGH LATE EVE/EARLY MON. ASSOCIATED STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS
COULD YIELD DMGG WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
GIVEN PREVAILING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...CORFIDI