Severe Weather April 9/10/11 Upper Midwest & Deep South
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Hm, the LFC in Il is around 2000 - 3000 meters. With much Cape an Li in place, what would be needed to get through this cap ?
It would need increased lower-level dynamics. You can have 10,000 CAPE but without surface support, nothing will develop.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Continuous watches from northern Ontario to central Texas now.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF VICHY
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG DRY
LINE FROM SW MO SSW INTO S CNTRL OK...AS UVV BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH
APPROACH OF W TX UPR IMPULSE. AMPLE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO
BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL GIVEN 40+ KT 850-700 MB FLOW
BENEATH 70+ KT 500 MB WIND IN ENTRANCE REGION OF DEVELOPING UPR LVL
JET STREAK.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...CORFIDI
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 730 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF VICHY
MISSOURI TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG DRY
LINE FROM SW MO SSW INTO S CNTRL OK...AS UVV BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH
APPROACH OF W TX UPR IMPULSE. AMPLE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR
SUPERCELLS. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO
BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL GIVEN 40+ KT 850-700 MB FLOW
BENEATH 70+ KT 500 MB WIND IN ENTRANCE REGION OF DEVELOPING UPR LVL
JET STREAK.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
...CORFIDI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
WIC087-110115-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110411T0115Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-
741 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUTAGAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...
AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW LONDON...OR 13 MILES WEST
OF APPLETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT A
ROTATING WALL CLOUD NEAR THE TOWN OF HORTONVILLE.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLACK CREEK AROUND 800 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE
STEPHENSVILLE...GREENVILLE...SHIOCTON...MACKVILLE...BINGHAMTON...
FREEDOM...SEYMOUR AND ONEIDA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GREEN BAY.
&&
LAT...LON 4443 8872 4459 8819 4425 8819 4424 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 246DEG 35KT 4432 8863
$$
KALLAS
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110411T0115Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-
741 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUTAGAMIE COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...
AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW LONDON...OR 13 MILES WEST
OF APPLETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORT A
ROTATING WALL CLOUD NEAR THE TOWN OF HORTONVILLE.
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLACK CREEK AROUND 800 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE
STEPHENSVILLE...GREENVILLE...SHIOCTON...MACKVILLE...BINGHAMTON...
FREEDOM...SEYMOUR AND ONEIDA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GREEN BAY.
&&
LAT...LON 4443 8872 4459 8819 4425 8819 4424 8868
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 246DEG 35KT 4432 8863
$$
KALLAS
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 110100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN WI INTO THE U.P.
OF MICH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO
THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
...GREAT LAKES REGION...
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERTAKE
THE DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/SOUTH OF A WEST-EAST WARM
FRONT...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WI INTO MI THIS EVENING. BENEATH
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...VERY STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC/VEERING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT AND NEARBY WARM SECTOR. PER AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LONG LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED WITH THE 00Z GREEN BAY OBSERVED RAOB AND THE
GRB WSR-88D VWP...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS EASTERN WI WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS /LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. OTHERWISE...OTHER MORE
LINEAR-TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS OTHERWISE PROBABLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALSO SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST WI
AND LOWER MI TONIGHT.
...MIDWEST/OZARKS/ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX TO LOWER OH/MS RIVER
VALLEYS...
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR ALONG THE INITIAL WEAK COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE-TYPE FEATURE FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE
ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX...WHERE AROUND 60F OR LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
SUPERCELLS WITH A HAIL/TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF INITIATION...BUT STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS /WITH SOME BOWS/ CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX.
..GUYER.. 04/11/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0106Z (9:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN WI INTO THE U.P.
OF MICH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO
THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
...GREAT LAKES REGION...
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVERTAKE
THE DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND NEAR/SOUTH OF A WEST-EAST WARM
FRONT...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN WI INTO MI THIS EVENING. BENEATH
THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...VERY STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC/VEERING WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT AND NEARBY WARM SECTOR. PER AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LONG LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED WITH THE 00Z GREEN BAY OBSERVED RAOB AND THE
GRB WSR-88D VWP...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS EASTERN WI WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS /LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. OTHERWISE...OTHER MORE
LINEAR-TYPE DEVELOPMENT IS OTHERWISE PROBABLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALSO SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST WI
AND LOWER MI TONIGHT.
...MIDWEST/OZARKS/ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX TO LOWER OH/MS RIVER
VALLEYS...
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR ALONG THE INITIAL WEAK COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE-TYPE FEATURE FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE
ARKLATEX/CENTRAL TX...WHERE AROUND 60F OR LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
SUPERCELLS WITH A HAIL/TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH IN THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF INITIATION...BUT STRONG/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE SUPPORT
THE EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS /WITH SOME BOWS/ CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX.
..GUYER.. 04/11/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0106Z (9:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
WWCN11 CWTO 110100
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:00 PM EDT SUNDAY 10 APRIL 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM LAKE HURON WITH A RISK
OF A TORNADO..
THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS A FOCUS
FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
CENTRAL LAKE HURON HAS HAD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS EVENING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON.
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/OSPC
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:00 PM EDT SUNDAY 10 APRIL 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...
TORNADO WATCH FOR:
=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY
=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
=NEW= GREY - BRUCE
=NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM LAKE HURON WITH A RISK
OF A TORNADO..
THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES..MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR UPDATED BULLETINS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS A FOCUS
FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
CENTRAL LAKE HURON HAS HAD REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THIS STORM
LATE THIS EVENING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON.
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
END/OSPC
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
WWUS53 KGRB 110110
SVSGRB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
WIC087-135-137-139-110130-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110411T0130Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WAUSHARA WI-WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAUPACA...
NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...EASTERN WAUSHARA AND SOUTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...
AT 806 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE POYGAN...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO
WAS LOCATED WEST OF WINNECONNE.
WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO NEAR BORTH
AT AROUND 753 PM.
THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN WAUSHARA...
NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...SOUTH CENTRAL WAUPACA AND SOUTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DALE...WINCHESTER...
ALLENVILLE...MEDINA...LARSEN...NEENAH AND MENASHA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4434 8841 4407 8841 4401 8907 4427 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 259DEG 39KT 4418 8875
$$
KIECKBUSCH
SVSGRB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
WIC087-135-137-139-110130-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110411T0130Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WAUSHARA WI-WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-
810 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAUPACA...
NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...EASTERN WAUSHARA AND SOUTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...
AT 806 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE POYGAN...OR 16 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TORNADO
WAS LOCATED WEST OF WINNECONNE.
WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO NEAR BORTH
AT AROUND 753 PM.
THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN WAUSHARA...
NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...SOUTH CENTRAL WAUPACA AND SOUTHWESTERN OUTAGAMIE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DALE...WINCHESTER...
ALLENVILLE...MEDINA...LARSEN...NEENAH AND MENASHA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4434 8841 4407 8841 4401 8907 4427 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 259DEG 39KT 4418 8875
$$
KIECKBUSCH
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER NRN AND ERN WI EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS CNTRL AND PERHAPS ERN PARTS OF THE UPR
PENINSULA OF MI. WHILE NEAR-SFC LAYER IS RELATIVELY STABLE GIVEN
FLOW OFF THE LAKES...KGRB SOUNDING AND VWP DATA SUGGEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF EXISTING LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THAT MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...CORFIDI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
LAKE SUPERIOR
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM UNTIL
200 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ESCANABA MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 120...WW 121...WW
122...WW 123...WW 124...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER NRN AND ERN WI EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE ACROSS CNTRL AND PERHAPS ERN PARTS OF THE UPR
PENINSULA OF MI. WHILE NEAR-SFC LAYER IS RELATIVELY STABLE GIVEN
FLOW OFF THE LAKES...KGRB SOUNDING AND VWP DATA SUGGEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SFC COULD
SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF EXISTING LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES THAT MOVE INTO REGION FROM THE WSW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.
...CORFIDI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10 Upper Midwest
WWUS53 KGRB 110147
SVSGRB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
847 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
WIC139-110200-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110411T0200Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-
847 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...
AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSHKOSH...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF OSHKOSH.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4389 8885 4394 8879 4396 8876 4403 8869
4409 8840 4389 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 253DEG 53KT 4398 8857
$$
EB
SVSGRB
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
847 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
WIC139-110200-
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110411T0200Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-
847 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...
AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OSHKOSH...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CITY OF OSHKOSH.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4389 8885 4394 8879 4396 8876 4403 8869
4409 8840 4389 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 253DEG 53KT 4398 8857
$$
EB
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT.
* AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROGERSVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
STRAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIGGINS...DUNCAN...FORDLAND...
GROVESPRING...MANES...MARSHFIELD...NIANGUA...NORTHVIEW...ODIN...
RADER AND ROGERSVILLE.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 100 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
WEBSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT.
* AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROGERSVILLE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
STRAFFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIGGINS...DUNCAN...FORDLAND...
GROVESPRING...MANES...MARSHFIELD...NIANGUA...NORTHVIEW...ODIN...
RADER AND ROGERSVILLE.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 100 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS TORNADO.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
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Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1057 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
* AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRADY LAKE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF BRADY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BRADY LAKE BY 1100 PM CDT...
BRADY BY 1105 PM CDT...
ROCHELLE BY 1115 PM CDT...
PLACID BY 1120 PM CDT...
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1057 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
* AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRADY LAKE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF BRADY...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BRADY LAKE BY 1100 PM CDT...
BRADY BY 1105 PM CDT...
ROCHELLE BY 1115 PM CDT...
PLACID BY 1120 PM CDT...
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN LWR MI...NWRN IND...CNTRL AND ERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110403Z - 110530Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SPARSE IN COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW.
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE ARE SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STRENGTHENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS ACTIVITY
IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS SLOWLY STABILIZING... BUT
WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WHICH THE
STORMS ARE EMBEDDED /IN EXCESS OF 50 KT/...AND SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN 00Z RAOBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN LWR MI...NWRN IND...CNTRL AND ERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 110403Z - 110530Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SPARSE IN COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW.
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
CYCLONE ARE SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO...WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS STRENGTHENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS ACTIVITY
IS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IS SLOWLY STABILIZING... BUT
WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN WHICH THE
STORMS ARE EMBEDDED /IN EXCESS OF 50 KT/...AND SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS EVIDENT IN 00Z RAOBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10/11 Upper Midwest & Deep South
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...AND SERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111358Z - 111500Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR.
AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO
AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA
WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING
IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING
TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH
A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
INHIBITION.
SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR
WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH
VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING.
..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
JAN...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...AND SERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111358Z - 111500Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR.
AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO
AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA
WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING
IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING
TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH
A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
INHIBITION.
SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR
WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH
VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING.
..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
JAN...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
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Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather April 9/10/11 Upper Midwest & Deep South
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN
MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111446Z - 111515Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR
NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE
EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY
/REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/.
MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND
CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA
INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS
PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS
AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING
THE FORMER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN
MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111446Z - 111515Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR
NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE
EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY
/REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/.
MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND
CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA
INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THESE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS
PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS
AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING
THE FORMER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
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Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
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