Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Today was a warm day in most of Central America although we've had warmer days in the last couple of weeks. Most of the countries had near normal temps but Costa Rica and Panama that experienced cooler than normal highs, actually Panama city had it's coolest maixmum temp for 2011 as it was very cloudy and rainy.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.8°C (51.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 14.6°C (58.3°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.0°C (44.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.0°C (60.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.0°C (98.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 27.8°C (82.0°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 26.2°C (79.2°F) Coolest for 2011.
Boquete, Panama 20.5°C (68.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST SAT APR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
BASE OF TROUGH NOW SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AND
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
MAINTAIN A HIGH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND SINK FURTHER SOUTHWEST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LOCAL REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA
TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS UNFOLDING PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IR IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SHALLOW PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SO
FAR NO PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND...AS OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO BRUSH PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND ONE OR TWO OF THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL
BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED OVER CULEBRA
VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BOTH GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODEL GUIDANCE TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY WETTER AND
UNSTABLE PATTERN AS THE AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING SOME INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS AND THAT BROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES...WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AND CLOUDINESS DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AS WELL AS
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO BTW 09/16Z-09/21Z IN SHRA. TJSJ 9/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 40
STT 85 74 85 75 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST SAT APR 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO SHARPEN AND BECOME
LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
AND THEN CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF
SHORT WAVE RIDGING POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN OVERALL AND GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...IMPROVING DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST ACTIVE AFTERNOONS WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY...TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. OF NOTE...GIVEN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SET-UP...LOCATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WOULD NORMALLY BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...SO NO WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND
AROUND OF TJMZ AT LEAST THROUGH 21Z. CURRENT WIND PROFILE AT JSJ
INDICATED MAINLY EAST WINDS UP TO 10 KFT WITH SPEEDS RANGING BTWN
10 AND 25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...IN GENERAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS OVERALL TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
BE FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 40 40
STT 74 85 75 86 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Hi. Near normal minimum temps were registered this morning in all the region. Near normal highs were registered in most of the countries except Costa Rica that had cooler than normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.7°C (47.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.0°C (51.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.4°C (59.7°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.0°C (64.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 29°C (84°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.2°C (99.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.7°C (51.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 19.6°C (67.3°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST SAT APR 9 2011

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES ONLY TO FORECAST. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO HAVE NOW MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND SHOWERS
STREAMING OFF OF SAINT CROIX HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND TO
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. A FEW VERY MINOR SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK AND FADED BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST SOUTHWEST
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE IN
THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW LATE TONIGHT...BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET
FORMED. LATEST 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY NEUTRAL STABILITY
CONDITIONS WITH LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN 24 HOURS AGO BUT MORE
THAN AT 09/12Z. THE DEW POINT AT THE BUOY TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN
FALLING SLOWLY...SO NOT MUCH PROMISE OF WETTER AIR UPSTREAM. EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS WERE FOUND UP TO 18 THOUSAND FEET WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 20 THOUSAND. STRONGEST WINDS OF 65 KNOTS WERE FOUND
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 THOUSAND FEET. NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH ON
MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRAILING. EXPECT
SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
IF ANY WILL BE FEW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF TJSJ...TJBQ TIST TISX TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 10/17Z BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN VICINITY OF TJMZ UNTIL 10/21Z. CURRENT
SAN JUAN WIND PROFILE INDICATED MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KFT
BTWN 10 TO 16 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It looks like this week will be more unstable with scattered showers moving thru the NE Caribbean,a welcome thing for Puerto Rico as the lakes are going down in a good pace.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SUN APR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AND
DIG SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND NOW CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE EASTWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH
IS TO THEN LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND
MORE OF AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...ONE JUST NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE EAST ATLANTIC. THESE ARE
SEPARATED BY A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH
JUST EAST OF BERMUDA THIS MORNING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RIPPED OFF
FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES... ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THESE
OCCASIONAL SURGES OF MOISTURE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIZABLE PATCH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS TODAY. SOME WILL BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THEREFORE...EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
ACROSS THESE AREAS. LATER IN THE DAY... EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER TODAY.

BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED WELL...AND
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS IN
STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE
TRADE WIND MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME...STILL NOT GOING FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...AS THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED WIND FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION . WILL HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FORECAST WITH TIME.

&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY OF TJSJ...TIST...TISX UNTIL 10/14Z. AFT 10/17Z BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF TJMZ
UNTIL 10/21Z. TJSJ 10/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A MAINLY NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW UP TO 15 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 15K FEET...
BECOMING FROM THE WEST ANS STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 74 / 40 20 20 30
STT 84 73 85 75 / 40 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SUN APR 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF FILLING OF THE TROUGH
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY RE-SHARPENING
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. LOOKING
AHEAD...RIDGING AND AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD
GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN OVERALL AND GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT THIS TIME...THE
MOST ACTIVE AFTERNOONS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WITH JUST SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY FOR MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE MOVEMENT AND SPEED OF
MOISTURE BANDS AND PATCHES AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
ANY OF THE NEXT FOUR AFTERNOONS COULD HAVE LOCALIZED ACTIVE
WEATHER. OF NOTE...GIVEN EXPECTED DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SET-UP...
THE LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WOULD
NORMALLY BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...SO NO
WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
WILDFIRES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IN GENERAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AS OVERALL TREND WILL
BE FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 20 30 30
STT 73 84 75 86 / 30 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

Near normal temperatures were registered in most of the region today, only Costa Rica and Panama had cooler than normal temps again.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F) Warmest for 2011.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 9°C (48°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.3°C (59.5°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.5°C (40.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.7°C (60.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.2°C (72.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.5°C (99.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28.8°C (83.8°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.6°C (81.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.0°C (60.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.9°C (69.6°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Sat-8pmET Sun)
for Sun Apr 10 2011

RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF WINDWARD ISLANDS, FRENCH GUIANA

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.5C 92F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.8C 87F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.1C 86F 1.6mm
Point Salines, Grenada 28.9C 84F 2.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.4C 87F 0.2mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.2C 85F 21.3mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 28.1C 83F 15.0mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 27.4C 81F 13.0mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 29.5C 85F 2.0mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.3C 86F 4.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 30.1C 86F 1.2mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 31.4C 88F 1.0mm

VC Bird, Antigua 29.4C 85F trace
Golden Rock St Kitts 29.2C 85F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F
St Thomas, VI 28.9C 84F trace
St Croix, VI 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.4C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.6C 89F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 31.8C 89F
Havana, Cuba 32.3C 90F
Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.4C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 19.6C 66F

Cayenne, French Guiana 26.1C 79F 61.0mm
Timehri, Guyana 33.5C 92F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
855 PM AST SUN APR 10 2011

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO AND SEVERAL SHOWERS FORMED ON THE NORTHEAST FLANKS OF
EL YUNQUE. MEANWHILE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO HAVE MOVED
SOUTH AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK BAND OF MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BAND TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EVENING TO
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...AN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMUM
WILL FORM JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AROUND 11/06Z AND WILL
GIVE SOME WEAK AID TO WHAT CONVECTION CAN FORM. THE 11/00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE ENERGY BELOW 700 MB WHERE A SURFACE PARCEL
WOULD BRIEFLY REACH EQUILIBRIUM...AND WHILE MOISTURE HAS RECOVERED
A LITTLE FROM THE 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 1.12 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER...THE BEST MOISTURE IS BELOW 800 MB AND NEARLY
GONE BY 650 MB...OR ONLY ABOUT 14 THOUSAND FEET...COINCIDENTALLY
WHERE FLOW REVERSES FROM NORTHEAST TO WESTERLY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST AND COVERAGE SPOTTY. THE
JET SHOWS SOME ANTI-CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH
SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO DON`T EXPECT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AFTER THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
SHOULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS MENTIONED BELOW. MODELS
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GFS NOW SUGGESTS BEST MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT TUESDAY
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS WELL...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED PASSING SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ..TIST AND TNCM OVERNIGHT. AFT 11/17Z...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet week ahead is instore for most of the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 AM AST MON APR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN JUST TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH BRIEF FILLING OF THE TROUGH POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY RE-SHARPENING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MORE OF AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE DETECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING
WATERS. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY WERE GENERALLY MINIMAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
MORNING DEPICTED SMALL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST TRADES MOVING ACROSS THE FA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE
PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THIS WEEK...DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS TIME...THE MOST ACTIVE AFTERNOONS WOULD APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LOW
LEVEL DISTURBANCE JUST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE EXPECTED WIND FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE...JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ADD SOME INSTABILITY
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM AROUND
1.00 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND 1.7
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLD PASSING SHRA PSBL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR TJMZ AND TJPS FM PRESENT TIL 11/12Z. AFT 11/17Z...BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FOR TJMZ. WINDS ARE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NE AT 5-15 KTS UP TO 15K FT...BCMG WESTERLY
AND INCR UP TO A MAX OF AROUND 80KTS NEAR 35K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 75 / 20 30 30 30
STT 84 75 86 75 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST MON APR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY FILL.
INVERTED SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD
NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS AS DRY AS THEY CAN GET FOR MID APRIL WITH PW
AROUND 0.7 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL DIG INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE IT WILL SUPPORT A
MOIST SURGE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. WHILE PW VALUES
RISE TO 1.7 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS...GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WOULD ALLOW REAL DEEP
MOISTURE TO GET INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WED-FRI...RAINS DO NOT APPEAR TO
BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. BEST CHANCE FOR SIG RAINS WILL BE OVER ST.
CROIX AND THE LEEWARDS WHERE THEY REALLY NEED THE RAIN. CUTOFF LOW
DISSIPATES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH BIG HIGH OVR THE ATLC TAKING
CONTROL OVR THE REGION WITH A NORTHEAST DRY WIND FLOW EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HRS BUT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH TSRA WED-
FRI ESPECIALLY USVI AND LEEWARDS TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TSRA ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 84 / 10 30 50 60
STT 74 84 74 85 / 10 30 50 60

[srainhoutx]

Looking mighty wet for our Caribbean neighbors. From the HPC Caribbean discussion this afternoon:

AS MOISTURE SURGES...AND UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE...THE GFS IS
SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES...SPREADING TO PUERTO RICO LATER ON TUESDAY AND HISPANIOLA
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND TO
THE EVOLVING PATTERN...WITH BOTH SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE FRENCH/NORTHERN WINDWARD EARLY ON THE CYCLE AND THEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THEREAFTER. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE QUITE
BULLISH ON THEIR SOLUTION...WITH LARGE MAJORITY SUGGESTING RISK OF
MCS FORMATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEY
CONVERGE ON HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLES ON DAY
01...AND BETWEEN PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES ON DAY 02. ON DAY 03 THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
ALSO TO CONSIDER...THE CPC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
GFS AND EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODEL ARE FORECASTING THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS SUGGESTED BY MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IS HIGH.



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[cycloneye]

Looking mighty wet for our Caribbean neighbors. From the HPC Caribbean discussion this afternoon:

AS MOISTURE SURGES...AND UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE...THE GFS IS
SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLES...SPREADING TO PUERTO RICO LATER ON TUESDAY AND HISPANIOLA
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND TO
THE EVOLVING PATTERN...WITH BOTH SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OVER
THE FRENCH/NORTHERN WINDWARD EARLY ON THE CYCLE AND THEN OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS THEREAFTER. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE QUITE
BULLISH ON THEIR SOLUTION...WITH LARGE MAJORITY SUGGESTING RISK OF
MCS FORMATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEY
CONVERGE ON HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLES ON DAY
01...AND BETWEEN PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES ON DAY 02. ON DAY 03 THE
FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.
ALSO TO CONSIDER...THE CPC VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
GFS AND EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION MODEL ARE FORECASTING THIS TO
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS SUGGESTED BY MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IS HIGH.



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Is a welcome thing as rain is needed for some of the islands including in parts of Puerto Rico.Even,there is talk of rationing water here as the lakes go down.Let's see how much we can get from this event.

[msbee]

we need rain here too.
It's been very dry.

[cycloneye]

we need rain here too.
It's been very dry.

Welcome back to the thread Barbara. Hopefully,the rain falls over there too.

[Macrocane]

Hi! As it has been the case in the last 2 weeks very warm highs (though near normal) and some warm lows were registered today in most of Central America, only Panama had cooler than normal temps again.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.6°C (56.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 15.0°C (59.0°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.2°C (59.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.8°C (88.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28.0°C (82.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.1°C (70.0°F)

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Sun-8pmET Mon) for
Mon Apr 11 2011

TROUGH BRINGS RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN CARIBBEAN

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.8C 91F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.9C 88F 1.3mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.1C 86F 4.2mm
Point Salines, Grenada 29.1C 84F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.7C 84F 1.6mm

Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.0C 84F 7.2mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.5C 85F 13.3mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.9C 86F 7.4mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 25.5C 78F 4.1mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 27.1C 81F 6.1mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 30.0C 86F 39.0mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 25.0C 77F 15.0mm

VC Bird, Antigua 26.1C 79F 3.0mm
West End, Anguilla 26.8C 80F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.4C 83F 0.2mm
St Thomas, VI 28.9C 84F
St Croix, VI 30.6C 87F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.1C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.1C 90F
Havana, Cuba 31.1C 88F
Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Marathon, FL 30.6C 87F
Miami, FL 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.4C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 20.7C 69F

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.6C 87F
Timehri Airport, Guyana 28.8C 84F 12.0mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Last night modearte to heavy showers occurred in the central and western parts of the country, these are some of the accumulations of rain:

Santa Ana 47.2 mm/1.86 inches The wettest day on this city since August 26 2010.
La Hachadura 36 mm/1.42 inches
Ahuachapan 18 mm/0.71 inches
Acajutla 13 mm/0.51 inches The wettest day on this location since September 29 2010.
San Salvador 1.0 mm/0.04 inches

[chrisjslucia]

Yes, it sure is wet. Martinique is even wetter I think. This time last year, we had a drought - boy does that seem a long time ago. Hopefully the dams will fill but as St Lucia has a long way to go to repair the damage from Tomas, we may have a price to pay in terms of our road system and in places the dangers of flooding again from rivers that are full of silt or have changed course altogether. As it is Jazz soon, I am hoping for a dry end to the month....