Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

There was a 5.1 quake just NE of the Virgin Islands overnight. More information about it can be found at the Eastern Caribbean Seismic Activity thread at Geology forum.I didn't felt it.

viewtopic.php?f=67&p=2123153#p2123153

It was felt on St. maarten also but I didn't feel it myself.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

PRC011-097-132200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0026.110413T1903Z-110413T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAYAGUEZ PR-ANASCO PR-
303 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MAYAGUEZ AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 302 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST SLOWLY WHILE PRODUCING
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH 600 PM.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6708 1817 6707 1817 6717 1829 6721
1832 6714 1831 6709

$$

EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EDT WED APR 13 2011

DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 13/0000 UTC. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS A POLAR
TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS
TRAILING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WESTERN
CUBA. THIS TROUGH IS PHASING/INTERACTING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH...AS THE LATTER EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/TURKS TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FAVORS A DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST OF 68W/70W. A RIDGE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CENTERS OVER MEXICO...FAVORING A LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO/THE YUCATAN TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT LOW LEVELS A POLAR FRONT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WHILE TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS FROM LAKE
MARACAIBO/LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SECONDARY PERTURBATIONS FOLLOW...STREAMING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES
TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE ABC
ISLES-NORTHERN VENEZUELA/SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE THE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 50-75MM OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

ALOFT...THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA IS TO CENTER ON A
CLOSED HIGH NEAR 18N 100W EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48-54 HRS
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN/NEARLY COLLAPSE AS A STRONG TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE IS TO HAVE A STRONG MID
LEVEL REFLECTION THROUGH 36 HRS...WITH MID LEVEL AXIS STACKING
WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO/THE YUCATAN-CENTRAL AMERICA/CUBA. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE CYCLE...THE CAP IS TO ERODE ACROSS
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO-OAXACA-GUERRERO THROUGH 66-78 HRS...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER
CUBA/CENTRAL AMERICA... HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 84 HRS.

AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/PULL...WITH UPPER
PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO/USVI EARLY
ON FRIDAY. BEST INFLOW OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
LATER ON FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PULL ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IT WILL SUSTAIN A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA. A NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS TO THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE BASIN. A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA IS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING. THEN PULL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TO SHEAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
SECONDARY VORTICES STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THEY WILL
LACK THE AMPLITUDE/PUNCH OF THE LATTER. AS A RESULT...RISK OF MCS
FORMATION IS QUICKLY EBBING. DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER...IS TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO CONTINUE
FAVORING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE MORNING-AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON
DAILY MAXIMA TO PEAK AROUND 20-25MM...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER PERTURBATION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...MAINTAINING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WAS
AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
DEFINITELY...THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IN MONTHS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST 13/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED STORM MOTION BETWEEN 0-6KM
OF 155/04KT WHICH HAS INDUCED LITTLE MOTION OF CELLS ACROSS THE
REGION...LETTING FOR GOOD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT CAN`T
RULED OUT SOME SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL TONIGHT. THETA-E VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN
DRIER AIR MOVES FROM THE NORTH...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS WILL STAY QUITE
ACTIVE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALSO ACROSS TISX...AND TIST TROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT IN SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 74 83 / 50 40 30 40
STT 73 83 75 84 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
324 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

PRC009-043-132130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0027.110413T1924Z-110413T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-AIBONITO PR-
324 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 324 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST SLOWLY WHILE PRODUCING
AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH 530 PM.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1813 6637 1816 6624 1810 6623 1808 6635

$$

EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

PRC021-033-051-061-091-127-135-137-143-145-132345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0028.110413T2057Z-110413T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-MANATI PR-
CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
457 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO...MANATI...
CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 452 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF VEGA ALTA...MANATI
AND BARCELONETA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1848 6654 1847 6630 1844 6602 1838 6604
1838 6625 1838 6640 1837 6652

$$

EM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

PRC023-067-125-132315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0029.110413T2114Z-110413T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
514 PM AST WED APR 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...SAN GERMAN AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 513 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST THOUGH 7:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6718 1816 6700 1807 6699 1807 6718

$$

MARTINEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall ( rain is 8pmET Tue-2pmET Wed) for
Wed Apr 13 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.2C 90F 0.5mm
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.7C 87F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.0C 88F 0.7mm

Point Salines, Grenada 30.0C 86F 2.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F 1.0mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.2C 86F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.0C 88F 25.0mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 27.8C 82F 24.0mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 28.7C 84F 18.1mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 27.3C 81F 6.0mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 27.7C 82F 3.0mm
LeLametin, Martinique 29.6C 85F 6.9mm
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 27.1C 81F 5.8mm

VC Bird, Antigua 27.2C 81F trace
Golden Rock, St Kitts 26.7C 80F 0.2mm
St Croix, VI 30.0C 86F trace
St Thomas, VI 28.2C 83F 13.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 14.2mm

Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Maimi, FL 31.1C 88F
Nassau, Bahamas 30.3C 86F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Hi! The coolest lows in at least three weeks were registered this morning in Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Near normal lows were registered in the rest of the countries. The highs were normal for this time of the year in all the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F) Coolest since March 23.
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.3°C (61.3°F) Coolest since March 14.
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.4°C (47.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.4°C (74.1°F).
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F) Coolest since March 24.
Esteli, Nicaragua 13.7°C (56.7°F) Coolest since March 24.
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.5°C (59.9°F) Coolest since March 23.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 19.6°C (67.3°F) Coolest since February 3!
Boquete, Panama 13.9°C (57.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (89°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.8°C (67.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)

[Macrocane]

By the way guys, tomorrow I will travel to US to spend the Holy week holidays there, so I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to make my posts during the next 10 days or so althoguh I will try

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Another round of afternoon showers will occur in Puerto Rico as the trough lingers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST THU APR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROUGH WILL EASE AWAY THIS FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY QUICKLY TO STRAIGHT ZONAL FLOW AS
ANOTHER JET IS ESTABLISHED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS JET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT LEAVE THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL IT REFORMS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. IT ALSO MOVES CLOSER TO PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES EAST
UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A STRONGER HIGH MOVING OUT OF NEWFOUNDLAND
ON SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP TRADE WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT
OVER ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS
CROSSED ONTO THE EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WERE NOT
REPORTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER 9 PM LAST NIGHT AND
RADAR SHOWED THE SHOWERS IN THE CARIBBEAN AROUND THEM SKIRTING THE
ISLANDS OR DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE ARRIVAL.

CURRENT MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS VERY GOOD MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM VENEZUELA...ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 20
NORTH LATITUDE. A TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG THE SAME AXIS ALSO REMAINS
STATIONARY OR NEARLY SO AS WINDS WEAKEN IN THE AREA. THIS HOLDS
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL NORTHEAST FLOW BEGINS LATE
FRIDAY. AND WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF VERY GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IN WESTERN
AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.

ON FRIDAY THESE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WESTWARD DUE TO THE
FLOW CHANGE. ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE NORTH COAST TO BE MOSTLY RAIN
FREE BUT EXPECT CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND...AGAIN
WITH VERY FEW SHOWERS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS ARE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE
NOT DONE THAT WELL AT TRACKING THE FOCUS OR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
AND NO LONGER HAVE THE VERY DRY BAND AT LOWER LEVELS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEREFORE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS THEN. HAVE HAD TO MODIFY THE MODELS`
FORECAST CONSIDERABLY FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND CLIMATOLOGY FROM
EXPECTED WINDS AND MOISTURE. NEXT WEEK A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA KEEPS FLOW EAST NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE ON
THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE PATCHY. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO NEXT WEEK ALMOST A
GIVEN...BUT HARD TO PIN AN EXACT LOCATION ON...HENCE THE MODEST POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 020-050 AND PASSING
SHWRS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPO MVFR CONDS PSBL ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. AFT 14/17Z...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVR THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR PRODUCING TEMPO MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ AND LOCAL MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER MOST OF PUERTO RICO. LLVL
WNDS FM E AT 5-15 KTS BTWN SFC TO 5 KFT BCMG SW ABOVE 20 KFT 20 TO
70 KTS...STRONGEST NR 45 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS SEAS CONTINUE NO HIGHER
THAN 5 FEET AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH DURING THE NEXT
7 TO 10 DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF
CONCERN TO MARINERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 50 50 40 30
STT 83 73 84 75 / 60 60 40 20

[cycloneye]

By the way guys, tomorrow I will travel to US to spend the Holy week holidays there, so I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to make my posts during the next 10 days or so althoguh I will try

Have a safe travel from start to finish.I will also also travel this one a 18 day trip starting on Monday.

[msbee]

Enjoy your travels Macro and Luis.

St. Maarten finally got some rain. it rained steadily for almost an hour.
YAY!

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
109 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

PRC001-013-039-054-073-075-107-113-141-149-142015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0030.110414T1709Z-110414T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-
VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-ARECIBO PR-
109 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...OROCOVIS...UTUADO...
VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 109 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 4:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6667 1834 6645 1811 6650 1813 6676

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
PRC003-011-083-099-131-141845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
142 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS AND ANASCO

AT 137 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF ANASCO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

INTENSE LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH
OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS
AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE
THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. SMALL HAIL

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
152 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

PRC001-011-013-027-065-071-081-083-099-115-131-141-142145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0031.110414T1752Z-110414T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
UTUADO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ANASCO PR-
ARECIBO PR-
152 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...ADJUNTAS...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
UTUADO...LAS MARIAS...LARES...CAMUY...HATILLO...ANASCO AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 151 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST THOUGH 5:45 PM AST.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6710 1839 6665 1814 6676 1828 6715

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

VIC020-030-142100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0032.110414T1800Z-110414T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
200 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 200 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS...GUTS...
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 5:00 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6470 1827 6499 1831 6508 1840 6507
1840 6466 1829 6466

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC081-131-142145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0001.110414T1844Z-110414T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
SAN SEBASTIAN
LARES

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 238 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER LARES
AND SAN SEBASTIAN. THESE SHOWERS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY PRODUCING
RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ALSO...THE U.S.G.S RIVER SENSOR
INDICATED RIO GUAJATACA IN LARES WAS OVER FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUING
RISING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6696 1835 6683 1824 6684 1827 6697

$$

CASTRO
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

PRC023-079-142145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0033.110414T1849Z-110414T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CABO ROJO PR-LAJAS PR-
249 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CABO ROJO AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 249 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 5:45 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6722 1809 6724 1806 6706 1801 6704

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
229 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC THROUGH HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS PR/USVI AND
INTO THE ATLC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NW ATLC OVR THE WEEKEND AND INDUCE A NORTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE TODAY AS AREA UNDER H25 CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIVERGENT FLOW ON LEFT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH THE STORMS OVER MOCA AND ANASCO EARLIER AND
THE ONE OVER CABO ROJO HAD A SMALL HAIL SPIKE AND THE STORM NORTH
OF 19.5N JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA HAD A WELL DEFINED ENHANCED
V-SIGNATURE INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE STORM. THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN
AFTER SUNSET OVER LAND BUT EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVR
ATLC WATERS ALL NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF.

TOMORROW WILL BE LOSING A LOT OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY WITH UNFVRBL
JET DYNAMICS SO NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH ACTIVITY AS TODAY OR NOT AS
INTENSE. THINGS DRY OUT FURTHER ON SAT BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY WITH
ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY OVR SRN PR AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THINGS REALLY DRY OUT FOR SUN AND MON WITH PW
VALUES FALLING UNDER AN INCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW. ONLY SPOTTY
ACTIVITY AT BEST THOSE DAYS.

FROM TUE AND ON OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF SHALLOW
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALG THE NORTH COAST AS A COOL ADVECTIVE
PATTERN SETS UP AND ONLY ISOLD AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT BEST.


&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY RAIN AT TIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AND VCSH OR VCTS AT ALL OTHER AIRPORTS TONIGHT. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH VCSH. PROB FOR TSRA TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 ATLC WATERS AND 2-3 FT CARIB WATERS. MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE CG LIGHTNING WITH TSRA ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 74 84 / 50 40 20 20
STT 73 84 75 84 / 50 40 10 10

[cycloneye]

Below is the radar that doesn't update that shows why all those flood advisories I have been posting in this very active afternoon in Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands. Look at that big complex well north of the coast that the discussion mentions. You can see the loops at the first post of thread.