MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN HALF OF OK / PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 135...
VALID 142221Z - 142315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 135 CONTINUES.
A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER 20 NNE OF PNC TO 25 SE OF
OKC TO THE RED RIVER 25 WSW OF ADM AND FARTHER S-SW INTO N-CNTRL TX.
THE ARCING LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD ERN OK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS
ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE WITH MAGNITUDES OF 45 TO 60 KT. THIS
DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN THE SUPERCELL THREAT
AS STORMS APPROACH THE TULSA AND MCALESTER AREAS THROUGH 2330Z WHILE
TRAVERSING MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
100-200 M2/S2 SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
THIS THREAT WILL FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES INCREASE PER
THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE ACROSS SERN OK INTO FAR NERN TX THROUGH 00Z...WHERE SFC-3 KM
CAPE VALUES FROM 100-150 J/KG WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
BUOYANCY TO THE RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION /COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH/.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...CONVECTION IS INITIATING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE NORTH OF THE DFW AREA. GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR...THESE
STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN THE VEERING WIND PROFILE
EVIDENT IN THE SFC-2-KM LAYER PER THE NEARBY FORT WORTH VWP.
THUS...THE TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH BY
ONE TIER OF COUNTIES IN NERN TX IF STORMS FURTHER INTENSIFY.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK...AND POTENTIALLY
BE NUDGED WWD A BIT. THIS MAY SERVE TO FOCUS ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 00Z AS AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
APPROACHES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
GUIDANCE...AND THESE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2011
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33989751 34699722 36069688 36889678 36829513 36279469
34199463 33239529 33059749 33989751
Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
US54 KTSA 142229
TORTSA
OKC037-143-142315-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0012.110414T2229Z-110414T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 529 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA...MOUNDS...KIEFER...GLENPOOL...JENKS...BIXBY
AND TULSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 195 AND 231.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 3601 9638 3621 9582 3587 9582 3586 9597
3586 9618 3583 9619 3582 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 253DEG 28KT 3594 9625
$$
TORTSA
OKC037-143-142315-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0012.110414T2229Z-110414T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 529 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA...MOUNDS...KIEFER...GLENPOOL...JENKS...BIXBY
AND TULSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 195 AND 231.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 3601 9638 3621 9582 3587 9582 3586 9597
3586 9618 3583 9619 3582 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 253DEG 28KT 3594 9625
$$
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
Tulsa cell. Approaching from the SW.
WUS54 KTSA 142240
SVSTSA
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC037-143-142315-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110414T2315Z/
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
540 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
TULSA AND EASTERN CREEK COUNTIES...
AT 537 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR
KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME.
SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAPULPA...
KIEFER...GLENPOOL...JENKS...BIXBY AND TULSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 232.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 3621 9583 3620 9582 3591 9582 3587 9627
3604 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 253DEG 28KT 3596 9618
$$
WUS54 KTSA 142240
SVSTSA
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC037-143-142315-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-110414T2315Z/
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
540 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
TULSA AND EASTERN CREEK COUNTIES...
AT 537 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR
KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME.
SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAPULPA...
KIEFER...GLENPOOL...JENKS...BIXBY AND TULSA.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 232.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 3621 9583 3620 9582 3591 9582 3587 9627
3604 9630
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 253DEG 28KT 3596 9618
$$
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5885
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
Looks to be an exciting evening in store for folks in eastern OK and Arkansas.....MGC
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB...N CENTRAL AND INTO ERN KS...SWRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...
VALID 142318Z - 150115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN
HALF OF KS AND ADJACENT AREAS.
ARCING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED ROTATING
CELLS -- CONTINUES FROM N CENTRAL KS AND FAR S CENTRAL NEB ESEWD
ACROSS ERN KS...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
A RIBBON OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS EVIDENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE -- COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION...WITH A MUCH MORE STABLE/CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO. THUS...EXPECT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO BE SLOW TO SHIFT EWD -- WITH THE OVERALL THREAT LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AS THIS OCCURS. NONETHELESS...AMPLE THREAT MAY SLOWLY
SPILL JUST EAST WW 134 TO REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL/NARROW WATCH
ISSUANCE AFTER 15/00Z.
UNTIL THEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES -- WITH THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS.
..GOSS.. 04/14/2011
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...
LAT...LON 36969798 40139946 40339757 38649393 37779310 36609283
36509450 36889581 36969798
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NEB...N CENTRAL AND INTO ERN KS...SWRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 134...
VALID 142318Z - 150115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 134 CONTINUES.
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN
HALF OF KS AND ADJACENT AREAS.
ARCING LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS -- INCLUDING EMBEDDED ROTATING
CELLS -- CONTINUES FROM N CENTRAL KS AND FAR S CENTRAL NEB ESEWD
ACROSS ERN KS...ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
A RIBBON OF MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS EVIDENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE -- COINCIDENT WITH THE LINE OF
CONVECTION...WITH A MUCH MORE STABLE/CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS FAR ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO. THUS...EXPECT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO BE SLOW TO SHIFT EWD -- WITH THE OVERALL THREAT LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AS THIS OCCURS. NONETHELESS...AMPLE THREAT MAY SLOWLY
SPILL JUST EAST WW 134 TO REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL/NARROW WATCH
ISSUANCE AFTER 15/00Z.
UNTIL THEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES -- WITH THE BAND OF ONGOING STORMS.
..GOSS.. 04/14/2011
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...
LAT...LON 36969798 40139946 40339757 38649393 37779310 36609283
36509450 36889581 36969798
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TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
Monster Supercell from earlier.
That is just one of many.
That is just one of many.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Large Tornado on the ground near Atoka, Oklahoma.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150033Z - 150230Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER ERN
OK...MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 35 KT...WILL CROSS THE OK/AR BORDER AFTER
02Z AND MARCH ACROSS AR DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO AR AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL OK OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
AND THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL OVERSPREAD AR INVOF
THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AROUND 60 KT/ WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION
INTO AR. WHILE THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR.
THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 100-125-KT 250-MB JET
STREAK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND MESOVORTICES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND
500 M2 PER S2. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AFTER SUNSET. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LEADING OR SOUTH OF THE QLCS. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN AR PRIOR TO 05Z
WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION...THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOWARD A
MORE LINEAR SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33859422 34629438 35639440 36219428 36429333 36069180
33639186 33289334 33859422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150033Z - 150230Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER ERN
OK...MOVING EWD AT 25 TO 35 KT...WILL CROSS THE OK/AR BORDER AFTER
02Z AND MARCH ACROSS AR DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO AR AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL OK OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
AND THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
PLACE...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL OVERSPREAD AR INVOF
THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AROUND 60 KT/ WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION
INTO AR. WHILE THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE MODE IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR.
THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 100-125-KT 250-MB JET
STREAK. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND MESOVORTICES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN HODOGRAPHS PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND
500 M2 PER S2. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A S-SWLY LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AFTER SUNSET. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LEADING OR SOUTH OF THE QLCS. WHILE THE
THREAT FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN AR PRIOR TO 05Z
WITH MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION...THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOWARD A
MORE LINEAR SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
..COHEN.. 04/15/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 33859422 34629438 35639440 36219428 36429333 36069180
33639186 33289334 33859422
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:Large Tornado on the ground near Atoka, Oklahoma.
The tornadic supercell that the NWS warning out of OKC described as a "large and violent tornado" has caused damage near Tushka according to KTEN-TV in Sherman/Denison where I live.
The KTEN storm chaser Kris Hair (also spotting for The Weather Channel tonight) has reported "major, major damage east of Atoka" with houses damaged/or/destroyed and a damage path of nearly a "mile wide."
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
This is the warning for the Atoka County, Oklahoma supercell:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC005-029-150115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/
COAL OK-ATOKA OK-
737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN COAL COUNTIES...
AT 735 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO THAT HAS PRODUCED DAMAGE
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ATOKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
PERSONS IN AND NEAR ATOKA NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS! THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9566 3450 9567 3450 9578 3427 9577
3430 9615 3432 9620 3445 9621 3461 9584
3460 9568 3459 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 241DEG 34KT 3436 9609
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC005-029-150115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/
COAL OK-ATOKA OK-
737 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN COAL COUNTIES...
AT 735 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO THAT HAS PRODUCED DAMAGE
WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ATOKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
PERSONS IN AND NEAR ATOKA NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS! THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9566 3450 9567 3450 9578 3427 9577
3430 9615 3432 9620 3445 9621 3461 9584
3460 9568 3459 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 241DEG 34KT 3436 9609
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
US54 KOUN 150056
SVSOUN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC005-150115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/
ATOKA OK-
756 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
ATOKA COUNTY...
AT 753 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
STRINGTOWN...AND ANOTHER TORNADO WAS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF LANE.
BOTH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PERSONS NEAR...NORTH...AND EAST
OF STRINGTOWN NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. PERSONS
NORTH OF LANE TOWARD MCGEE CREEK LAKE AND UP TOWARD REDDEN AND DAISY
SHOULD ALSO SEEK SHELTER. THIS IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9566 3450 9567 3450 9578 3427 9577
3429 9601 3435 9611 3449 9612 3461 9584
3460 9568 3459 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 203DEG 35KT 3449 9601 3437 9591
$$
SVSOUN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
OKC005-150115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110415T0115Z/
ATOKA OK-
756 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
ATOKA COUNTY...
AT 753 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
STRINGTOWN...AND ANOTHER TORNADO WAS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF LANE.
BOTH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PERSONS NEAR...NORTH...AND EAST
OF STRINGTOWN NEED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. PERSONS
NORTH OF LANE TOWARD MCGEE CREEK LAKE AND UP TOWARD REDDEN AND DAISY
SHOULD ALSO SEEK SHELTER. THIS IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 3451 9566 3450 9567 3450 9578 3427 9577
3429 9601 3435 9611 3449 9612 3461 9584
3460 9568 3459 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 203DEG 35KT 3449 9601 3437 9591
$$
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 150059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN
AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS...SWRN MO...ERN
OK...NERN TX INTO MUCH OF AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN...
...ERN OK...NERN TX AND AR...
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEEPENED ACROSS N-CNTRL KS WITH SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL OK IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITHIN UPPER
JET EXIT REGION ADVANCING SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM SRN THROUGH N-CNTRL TX...CNTRL OK...THEN NWD AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW IN N-CNTRL KS. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL OK. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM S-CNTRL AR NWWD INTO SERN KS.
WARM SECTOR FROM N-CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX INTO ERN OK AND SWRN AR
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PERSIST OVER ERN OK WITH STRONGEST
STORMS FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
SUPPORTING STRONGER INSTABILITY. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL EXISTS
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IN MODERATE
RISK AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN OK AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN AR
WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET AND WHILE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER OVER CNTRL OK. LATER
TONIGHT STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS AR...AND ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO N-CNTRL
AND NERN TX REMAINS POSSIBLE AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS EWD
DURING THE EVENING.
...ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO...
ARC OF STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DPVA EAST OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAINLY FROM SERN KS INTO
SWRN MO. FARTHER NORTH...ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EAST OF
MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0104Z (9:04PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 14 2011
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN
AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS...SWRN MO...ERN
OK...NERN TX INTO MUCH OF AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN...
...ERN OK...NERN TX AND AR...
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW HAS DEEPENED ACROSS N-CNTRL KS WITH SECONDARY
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL OK IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITHIN UPPER
JET EXIT REGION ADVANCING SEWD INTO N-CNTRL TX. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM SRN THROUGH N-CNTRL TX...CNTRL OK...THEN NWD AS AN OCCLUDED
FRONT TO SURFACE LOW IN N-CNTRL KS. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL OK. WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM S-CNTRL AR NWWD INTO SERN KS.
WARM SECTOR FROM N-CNTRL THROUGH NERN TX INTO ERN OK AND SWRN AR
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 1500-2000
J/KG MLCAPE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PERSIST OVER ERN OK WITH STRONGEST
STORMS FROM S-CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
SUPPORTING STRONGER INSTABILITY. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY STILL EXISTS
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL IN MODERATE
RISK AREA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN OK AND POSSIBLY INTO SWRN AR
WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET AND WHILE STORMS ARE STILL DISCRETE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
INITIATING ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER OVER CNTRL OK. LATER
TONIGHT STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS AR...AND ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND. SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO N-CNTRL
AND NERN TX REMAINS POSSIBLE AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS EWD
DURING THE EVENING.
...ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO...
ARC OF STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KS WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DPVA EAST OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAINLY FROM SERN KS INTO
SWRN MO. FARTHER NORTH...ACTIVITY IS SHIFTING EAST OF
MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..DIAL.. 04/15/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0104Z (9:04PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
From KXII and KTEN:
Tushka and Atoka - a number of homes damaged. At least one report indicated that several may have been "ripped from their foundations," that the Atoka Wal-Mart (the small, older style) may have been damaged, and some injuries. Damage path reported to be a mile to a mile and a half wide.
Tushka and Atoka - a number of homes damaged. At least one report indicated that several may have been "ripped from their foundations," that the Atoka Wal-Mart (the small, older style) may have been damaged, and some injuries. Damage path reported to be a mile to a mile and a half wide.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Severe Storms Forecast OK & KS 4/14/11. Deep South 4/15/11.
Atoka County EMC: "major, major damage in Atoka County."
He said the tornado went through the eastern half of Atoka and that there were a number (unknown number) of homes damaged and some may be "gone."
If homes were ripped from foundations, wouldn't that be EF-5 stuff?
He said the tornado went through the eastern half of Atoka and that there were a number (unknown number) of homes damaged and some may be "gone."
If homes were ripped from foundations, wouldn't that be EF-5 stuff?
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Saw some live video from the damage earlier. Very serious looking damage. I'd say strong EF-3 right now.
A Tornado Warning is about to be issued to for my county, and I'll be in the bulls eye.
A Tornado Warning is about to be issued to for my county, and I'll be in the bulls eye.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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