AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 159.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TURNING AND CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC
EXISTS ALONG A LINE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE. A 122140Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALED SOME CURVED BANDING
ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, BUT AN OVERALL LACK OF
ORGANIZATION. THE PGTW 130000Z UPPER-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS
AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM IS BELOW 10 KNOTS. SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
BOM:
The monsoon trough lies over the northern Coral Sea with a weak embedded low to
the northwest of New Caledonia. The low is expected to remain weak and move
slowly south over the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
NRL:
15 kt, 1010 mbar, 14.7N 159.6E
