#24 Postby Chacor » Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:28 pm
AXAU01 APRF 151853
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1853 UTC 15/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.2S
Longitude: 125.4E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [306 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 11.8S 124.8E: 075 [140]: 045 [085]: 994
+24: 16/1800: 11.3S 123.6E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 998
+36: 17/0600: 10.9S 122.2E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 1003
+48: 17/1800: 10.8S 120.9E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 1003
+60: 18/0600: 11.1S 119.8E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1005
+72: 18/1800: 11.5S 118.3E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
The current position based on the enhanced IR imagery. The convective banding
has strengthened slightly over the last couple of hours. Dvorak analysis is
based on a 0.65 curved band wrap giving DT=3.0. MET=3.0 on a 24hr D- trend, and
no PAT adjustment is required, so FT=DT=MET=3.0 with CI at 3.0. ADT currently
yields CI=3.2. This is a small system and EIR Dvorak analysis may not be
strictly representative. The system is maintained at 40 knots, with a forecast
of slight intensification based on environment and entering a diurnally
favourable period.
The system is expected to move slowly west-northwest as a mid-level ridge
develops to the south of the system. There is a slight possibility that gales
will affect the northern Kimberley coast if it were to drift to the southwest.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with 12Z CIMMS analysis suggesting 3.3
m/s of northerly shear. A good outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery
to the west and south of the system. However, animations of total precipitable
water suggest dry air is beginning to wrap around the system, though at present
it is maintaining intensity. It is expected an amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase in shear in the next 24-48 hours and assist
ingestion of dry air into the core, ultimately weakening the cyclone moves
closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the small size of the system,
this may lead to rapid weakening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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