Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011

[CrazyC83]

WFUS54 KBMX 152308
TORBMX
ALC015-027-029-121-160000-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0073.110415T2308Z-110416T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CENTRAL TALLADEGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR ALPINE...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHILDERSBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLADEGA...WEST END-COBB TOWN...COBB TOWN...OXFORD...ANNISTON...
FORT MCCLELLAN...WINTERBORO...WALDO...TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY AND
TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3341 8565 3324 8627 3341 8638 3342 8634
3344 8633 3373 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 243DEG 39KT 3335 8623

$$

03/08

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MS...SERN/S-CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 144...

VALID 152309Z - 160045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 144 CONTINUES.

ONGOING INTENSE/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OVER CLARKE...JONES...AND PEARL
RIVER COUNTIES IN MS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 55 KT/ AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE MAINTAINED
WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 400 M2/S2. BY
00Z...THESE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED E OF TORNADO WATCH
144 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 141.

MEANWHILE...A REMNANT SRN PLAINS DRYLINE CONTINUES APPROACHING THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. TO THE WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUPERCELLS...BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS VEER WITH WWD DISPLACEMENT TOWARD
THE DRYLINE...SUPPORTING MORE STRAIGHT-LINE /ALBEIT LONG/
HODOGRAPHS. THIS WILL YIELD THE PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING TOWARD
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AS WELL
AS LARGE HAIL. NEVERTHELESS...THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
PERSIST GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR SUPPORTED BY
W-SWLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT PER JACKSON VWP AT 1 KM AGL.

..COHEN.. 04/15/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30079243 31029157 32169029 33558938 33558853 32498843
30568879 29899064 29469203 30079243

[CrazyC83]

http://www.wsfa.com/

Coverage from Montgomery.

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO EMERGENCY #4 TODAY (questionable IMO based on the wording)

WWUS54 KMOB 152323
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALC023-152345-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110415T2345Z/
CHOCTAW AL-
623 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CHOCTAW
COUNTY AND THIS IS NOW A TORNADO EMERGENCY!...

AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT ON RADAR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS NEAR RED SPRINGS...OR ABOUT NEAR BUTLER...MOVING
EAST NOW AT 50 MPH. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO...TAKE COVER NOW!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAVACA AND TOMPKINSVILLE AROUND 630 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS
A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY
AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3228 8801 3217 8800 3214 8804 3209 8804
3206 8811 3201 8811 3202 8808 3199 8807
3197 8808 3195 8812 3193 8809 3185 8817
3185 8847 3231 8842 3232 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 260DEG 52KT 3205 8816

$$

[CrazyC83]

WFUS54 KMOB 152334
TORMOB
ALC023-160015-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0062.110415T2334Z-110416T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BUTLER...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF QUITMAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONEWALL...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A SECOND THUNDERSTORM AND NO THE ONE THAT
RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO IN RED SPRINGS.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NEEDHAM AROUND 650 PM CDT...
BUTLER AND LISMAN AROUND 700 PM CDT...
MT STERLING AND MOUNT STERLING AROUND 705 PM CDT...
PENNINGTON AND DEAS AROUND 715 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE A RESPONDER TO THE RED SPRINGS TORNADO PLEASE BE AWARE A
SECOND POTENTIAL TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM IS APPROACHING.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8800 3214 8804 3209 8804 3206 8811
3201 8811 3202 8808 3199 8806 3196 8807
3197 8810 3195 8812 3193 8805 3191 8847
3219 8845 3229 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 254DEG 41KT 3200 8861

$$

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, pretty amazing footage of the large wedge tornado that hit Tushka and Atoka, Oklahoma last night.

http://youtu.be/7qYfsPxfnfE

[CrazyC83]

FYI, pretty amazing footage of the large wedge tornado that hit Tushka and Atoka, Oklahoma last night.

http://youtu.be/7qYfsPxfnfE

Quite amazing. So far, it is at least an EF3 but I wouldn't be surprised if it is bumped up to EF4 based on reports from last night. I wonder what the Clinton, MS tornado will be (I would say at least EF3 as well).

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, pretty amazing footage of the large wedge tornado that hit Tushka and Atoka, Oklahoma last night.

http://youtu.be/7qYfsPxfnfE

Quite amazing. So far, it is at least an EF3 but I wouldn't be surprised if it is bumped up to EF4 based on reports from last night. I wonder what the Clinton, MS tornado will be (I would say at least EF3 as well).

Crazy, right you are. Just saw this from the Norman/OKC NWS preliminary report:

•A preliminary rating of EF-3 has been given to the tornado that affected the town of Tushka in Atoka county


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20110414

[CrazyC83]

Northern suburbs of Atlanta.

WFUS52 KFFC 160002
TORFFC
GAC067-089-121-160045-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0020.110416T0002Z-110416T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
802 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 800 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SANDY
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUCKHEAD...ROSWELL...DUNWOODY...CHAMBLEE...ALPHARETTA...
DORAVILLE...TUCKER AND JOHNS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL OR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8426 3409 8420 3403 8416 3402 8417
3399 8418 3400 8423 3398 8426 3393 8427
3387 8420 3384 8415 3382 8453 3400 8454
3415 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 267DEG 36KT 3391 8440

$$

[CrazyC83]

VERY intense hook echo. Capable of strong tornadoes for sure.

US54 KBMX 160003
TORBMX
ALC001-021-047-105-160100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0079.110416T0003Z-110416T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
703 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN CHILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 659 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAUL M GRIST STATE PARK...OR
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VALLEY GRANDE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADO MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALLEY GRANDE...CLANTON...PAUL M GRIST STATE PARK...PARNELL...
PLECHER...VIDA JUNCTION...BILLINGSLEY...POOLES CROSSROADS...VERBENA
AND BARRETT CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3288 8657 3259 8642 3249 8708 3262 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 248DEG 28KT 3257 8703

$$

03/08

[CrazyC83]

Montgomery now in crosshairs as well.

WFUS54 KBMX 160006
TORBMX
ALC085-101-160045-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0080.110416T0006Z-110416T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
706 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 703 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BEECHWOOD...OR NEAR MOSSES...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSSES...HAYNEVILLE...MONTGOMERY...LOWNDESBORO...CANTELOUS...
PINTLALA...DANNELLY FIELD...HOPE HULL...WOODCREST AND HUNTER.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 158 THROUGH 176...
INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 16...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3205 8674 3222 8681 3237 8656 3234 8653
3235 8650 3241 8645 3241 8642 3243 8639
3242 8631 3246 8632 3251 8626 3244 8618
3245 8617 3241 8606 3228 8594 3228 8598
3223 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 248DEG 42KT 3213 8667

$$

17/KLAWS

[CrazyC83]

Personally, I would let 141 get locally extended for northern areas, and introduce a PDS watch for southern areas where strong/violent tornadoes are still possible this evening and tonight.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN AL AND SERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 160016Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E-NEWD ACROSS WW141 INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J
PER KG -- IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO W-CNTRL AND SWRN INTO S-CNTRL AL
INVOF A SFC MOIST AXIS FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT/CYCLIC
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EXISTS. AS THE MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EWD IN
TIME...THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO CNTRL AL. VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA
500 M2/S2 AND WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG. WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM AGL...BIRMINGHAM VWP
DEPICTS STRONG CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH ATOP A LONG
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING /EASTWARD-MOVING/
SUPERCELLS ACROSS CNTRL AL.

FARTHER NORTH...EARLIER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A COLD
POOL ACROSS NRN AL INDUCING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE STATE /FROM 25 SW RMG TO 20 NNE BHM TO 35 SSW MSL/.
ENHANCED VORTICITY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO FOCUS AN ENHANCED
AREA OF TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION
IN THIS AREA COMPARED TO THE SOUTH COULD YIELD MORE FREQUENT CELL
INTERFERENCE AND MITIGATE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WELL
PAST THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z. THUS...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED PRIOR TO 02Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH 141 AND
DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2011


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33728814 34278772 34348670 34318605 33928551 32578525
31058563 30248689 30138790 30188821 30338892 30618925
31068908 31608853 32348833 33208823 33728814

[CrazyC83]

Confirmed tornado? headed for downtown Montgomery right now, according to WSFA.

[CrazyC83]

Darkness is falling on the area. Cells are becoming more and more dangerous now.

[CrazyC83]

Starting to calm down some. But southern Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle have not really been tapped yet today. It is still capped and less than ideal in Georgia, but southern Alabama has the best dynamics available right now.

[CrazyC83]

New Tornado Watch 146 coming out.

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 80/50. Another borderline-PDS, but I do give them the benefit of the doubt with a 50% sig-tor potential.

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
GRANGE GEORGIA TO 20 MILES EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 141. WATCH NUMBER 141 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
745 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SE MS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE
MS VALLEY MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY. WEAK-MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THIS
AREA...AND THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WILL EXPAND EWD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN FARTHER E INTO SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 500 M2/S2.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

Watch 144 may be called off early. I do agree it could be canceled, although maybe the MS Gulf Coast counties not in 146 should stay in it. It appears the Alabama cells are undercutting potential on the dryline itself.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS/SERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 144...

VALID 160051Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 144 CONTINUES.

DESPITE THE 00Z KJAN SOUNDING /JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT DRYLINE/
INDICATING AN SBCAPE VALUE OF 2820 J PER KG...THE MOIST LAYER IS
VERY SHALLOW BENEATH A VERY DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR /YIELDING AN
MLCAPE VALUE OF 222 J PER KG/. THIS DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG DRY INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE PV
ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION. CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE IN FAR ERN MS AND SERN LA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO
DEEPEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO UPDRAFTS. NO OTHER CONVECTIVE
INITIATION HAS BEEN NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE PARALLELING THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY. WITH THE CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AN
UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IF THIS VERIFIES
DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR...THEN WW 144 WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY /AFTER 01Z/.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2011


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29819120 30199135 30779112 31409025 32168957 32758906
33358871 33488837 32868836 32468844 30568879 29899064
29819120

[CrazyC83]

They may want to cover southwest Georgia as well in Watch 147.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 145...

VALID 160052Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 145 CONTINUES.

AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES SHIFTS EWD ACROSS
CNTRL GA...A TORNADO WATCH REPLACING WW145 WILL BE NEEDED COVERING
MUCH OF CNTRL GA. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER AL TRACK EWD TOWARD GA...AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2011


ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32008348 32148470 33188498 34138446 34348341 33578269
32348286 32008348

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO EMERGENCY #5 TODAY (ties a record, BUT a very questionable one even if it is a fairly populated area, radar-indicated should not make a TE)

WWUS54 KMOB 160057
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
757 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALC097-129-MSC041-160115-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-110416T0115Z/
WASHINGTON AL-GREENE MS-MOBILE AL-
757 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...EAST CENTRAL GREENE AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY...

AT 753 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS NEAR LEAKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING...PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR A ROOM SUCH AS
A CLOSET OR BATHROOM. IF POSSIBLE...GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY
AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME...EVACUATE IT AND GET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING OR IN AN UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER. IF NO
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER IS AVAILABLE AND A TORNADO IS FAST APPROACHING...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...OR LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER
LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3107 8858 3123 8861 3139 8832 3102 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 251DEG 32KT 3117 8852

$$