Which storms will be the big ones in 2011

[Jagno]

I really hope this decade doesn't turn out to be like the 1880's or 1940's when the U.S., particularly the Gulf Coast and especially Florida and Texas got pounded by storm after storm.

I pray it doesn't either. What most people are forgetting is that there is still a huge mess in that Gulf that I certainly do not want to content with on our land, homes and in the drinking water.With damages from Rita, Ike and Gustav it amazes me how quickly people become complacent. DH informed me yesterday that his new job requires him to stay during an evacuation. I'm afraid that we just may get into the latter part of the alphabet for named storms given the conditions predicted. With the price of fuel I'm very afraid that many will not be able to afford to evacuate.

[Hurricane Jed]

I really hope this decade doesn't turn out to be like the 1880's or 1940's when the U.S., particularly the Gulf Coast and especially Florida and Texas got pounded by storm after storm.

I pray it doesn't either. What most people are forgetting is that there is still a huge mess in that Gulf that I certainly do not want to content with on our land, homes and in the drinking water.With damages from Rita, Ike and Gustav it amazes me how quickly people become complacent. DH informed me yesterday that his new job requires him to stay during an evacuation. I'm afraid that we just may get into the latter part of the alphabet for named storms given the conditions predicted. With the price of fuel I'm very afraid that many will not be able to afford to evacuate.

I read in Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes, that apparently officials would prefer in people went 2 miles or 10 miles inland rather than 200 miles. If everyone could evacuate 20 miles inland they wouldn't need too much gas. My biggest areas of concern this year are the Carolinas and New England. Each of those areas hasn't had a hurricane for quite sometime. Texas, the Louisissippibama area and Florida have all had something in the last 5 years.

[Nimbus]

Some of the early season speculation is calling for a pattern with east coast steering. Major hurricanes are rare in New England, if any place has been beating the probabilities and avoiding a major strike it would be southeast Florida. On average they get a catastrophic storm every 9 years or so and the last cat 4 or higher was almost 20 years ago back in 1992.

If hurricane strike probability works the same way as coin flip probability prior history still does not increase the odds. There were 32 years between Donna a cat 4 that affected the Florida keys in 1960 and Andrew the cat 5 that devastated south Miami in 1992 so maybe we are just in another long quiet stretch.

[somethingfunny]

Some of the early season speculation is calling for a pattern with east coast steering. Major hurricanes are rare in New England, if any place has been beating the probabilities and avoiding a major strike it would be southeast Florida. On average they get a catastrophic storm every 9 years or so and the last cat 4 or higher was almost 20 years ago back in 1992.

If hurricane strike probability works the same way as coin flip probability prior history still does not increase the odds. There were 32 years between Donna a cat 4 that affected the Florida keys in 1960 and Andrew the cat 5 that devastated south Miami in 1992 so maybe we are just in another long quiet stretch.

How does a 32 year quiet period and then a 20 year quiet period equal a 9 year return average?

[Nimbus]

Exactly, if we used only the more recent historical data Miami would look like a fairly safe location.
Over longer periods the frequency of major storms for southeast Florida is much higher.
From 1900 to 1999 region 6 South Florida had 15 major hurricane landfalls.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/regions_map.bmp

Factoring in the more recent quiet spell the probability has dropped to 11.1 hurricanes during any 100 year period.

[angelwing]

Irene,the usually dangerous i storm. katia don, and lee

A couple of other Irene as major but for September

Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Rina
Sean
Whitney


I'm not jumping on the Emily bandwagon, I think that will just be a TS. Franklin, Gert, Harvey & Irene stick out for me like 2004, 4 in a row for Florida. Rina seems to be the storm that finally hits NY and Sean & Whitney will be going to Texas.

*None of this is scientific or based on any facts, just a feeling I have*

I was looking for my prediction...looks like I was only right on Irene

[StormClouds63]

Bret
Cindy
Don
Gert
Lee

0/4 ... with only 1 chance left.

[JtSmarts]

Irene (Early to Mid Sept): 135 MPH strike near Hutchinson Island, FL and 115 MPH strike near Santa Rosa Island, FL

Lee (Late Sept to early Oct): Scrapes most of the east coast including Outer Banks, DE, MD, and NY starting as a 140 MPH Cat 4 and making landfall in MA as a 100 MPH Cat 2

I'm going to totally fail at this but maybe I should have switched Irene and Lee.

[HurricaneRyan]

I guess I was right about Irene.

[HurricaneRyan]

Bret
Cindy
Don
Gert
Lee

0/4 ... with only 1 chance left.

You might have a small chance with Lee. He could pull an Allison, which can definitely be a BIG one.

[StormClouds63]

Bret
Cindy
Don
Gert
Lee

0/4 ... with only 1 chance left.

You might have a small chance with Lee. He could pull an Allison, which can definitely be a BIG one.

Now, I'm officially done ... don't take me to the racetrack or casino anytime soon. At least Lee did give us some beneficial rainfall on Saturday, and maybe the cool fronts are starting. I'm still worried a bit about "Rina" ... too similar to "Rita" for my taste.

[surfer_dude]

Picking which tropical storms will become major threats before they even form is too much of a shot in the dark IMO for a site that is supposed to forecast storms using recorded data and scientific analysis.

[Florida1118]

Picking which tropical storms will become major threats before they even form is too much of a shot in the dark IMO for a site that is supposed to forecast storms using recorded data and scientific analysis.

Since when has the site been refered to as that?

[surfer_dude]

Most of the posts in this thread are incredulous and frankly it seems like it's just an outlet for people to revel in fictional destruction and death of human beings, e.g. one poster suggested a hurricane the size of Typhoon Tip creating 100 foot waves in Bermuda with 40+ foot waves all the way up the east coast and your own prediction calls for 6+ major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. If anybody is to take this site seriously, when forecasting storms please accompany it with some sort of scientific data. Thanks.

[Florida1118]

Most of the posts in this thread are incredulous and frankly it seems like it's just an outlet for people to revel in fictional destruction and death of human beings, e.g. one poster suggested a hurricane the size of Typhoon Tip creating 100 foot waves in Bermuda with 40+ foot waves all the way up the east coast and your own prediction calls for 6+ major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. If anybody is to take this site seriously, when forecasting storms please accompany it with some sort of scientific data. Thanks.

Erm...this thread wasnt made for Science, it was made for fun and guessing and betting. If you dont like it, dont look at it.

[surfer_dude]

Sorry, maybe I don't get it, but how is 100 foot waves in Bermuda fun??? That isn't a guess or a bet neither, thats clearly reveling in destruction.

[Florida1118]

Sorry, maybe I don't get it, but how is 100 foot waves in Bermuda fun??? That isn't a guess or a bet neither, thats clearly reveling in destruction.

First off, I have no clue what you are referencing to for the 100ft waves. Next, this is just a thread for us to guess at what the season will be like and see at the end if we were right or not. Can be fun somewhat. Sorry if its not up to your amazing science standards, but it is what it is.

[surfer_dude]

FAce it, it's disaster stuff.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's cut this back and forth that is not helpful. What about returning to the topic on hand?