Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
SPC AC 160058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL THROUGH W-CNTRL
GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN
STATES INTO THE TN AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
...SERN STATES...
MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED EWD AND NOW INCLUDES CNTRL AND
SRN AL THROUGH W CNTRL GA. THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS EVENING A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SWRN IA WITH AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH WRN IL THEN SWD THROUGH
WRN TN...WRN MS AND SERN LA. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD WHILE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO
VORT LOBE ROTATING NEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG MOIST AXIS ACROSS S-CNTRL THROUGH SRN AL WITH MORE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH ENEWD EXTENT TOWARD GA. SSWLY LLJ WILL
SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SRN EXTENSION OF LLJ WITH 40-50 KT 850 WINDS WILL DEVELOP EWD
THROUGH GA OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING LARGE HODOGRAPHS. SEVERAL DISCRETE
SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS S-CNTRL
THROUGH SRN AL. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR OVER CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LONGER
LIVED SUPERCELLS INTO W-CNTRL GA. SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC. HOWEVER...ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
DECREASE IN OVERALL THREAT BY LATE TONIGHT.
...TN AND MID MS VALLEYS THROUGH WRN PORTION OF OH VALLEY...
LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUES
FROM WRN TN...NRN KY AND IL. ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED WITHIN ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG OCCLUDED BOUNDARY AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION
OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXIST. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NARROW INSTABILITY
AXIS WITH 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
..DIAL.. 04/16/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0107Z (9:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL THROUGH W-CNTRL
GA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SERN
STATES INTO THE TN AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
...SERN STATES...
MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED EWD AND NOW INCLUDES CNTRL AND
SRN AL THROUGH W CNTRL GA. THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA.
THIS EVENING A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SWRN IA WITH AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD THROUGH WRN IL THEN SWD THROUGH
WRN TN...WRN MS AND SERN LA. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD WHILE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO
VORT LOBE ROTATING NEWD THROUGH UPPER TROUGH.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG MOIST AXIS ACROSS S-CNTRL THROUGH SRN AL WITH MORE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH ENEWD EXTENT TOWARD GA. SSWLY LLJ WILL
SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
SRN EXTENSION OF LLJ WITH 40-50 KT 850 WINDS WILL DEVELOP EWD
THROUGH GA OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING LARGE HODOGRAPHS. SEVERAL DISCRETE
SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS S-CNTRL
THROUGH SRN AL. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR AND REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR OVER CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT LONGER
LIVED SUPERCELLS INTO W-CNTRL GA. SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH GA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SC. HOWEVER...ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
DECREASE IN OVERALL THREAT BY LATE TONIGHT.
...TN AND MID MS VALLEYS THROUGH WRN PORTION OF OH VALLEY...
LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUES
FROM WRN TN...NRN KY AND IL. ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED WITHIN ZONE OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG OCCLUDED BOUNDARY AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION
OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXIST. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NARROW INSTABILITY
AXIS WITH 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND...HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
..DIAL.. 04/16/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0107Z (9:07PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
WFUS54 KMOB 160111
TORMOB
ALC129-160200-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0071.110416T0111Z-110416T0200Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
811 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
* AT 807 PM CDT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND 9 MILES EAST OF
LEAKESVILLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF STATE LINE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MCINTOSH AROUND 845 PM CDT...
CORTELUOU AROUND 855 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3149 8791 3144 8793 3143 8791 3141 8792
3141 8790 3136 8789 3133 8791 3134 8792
3132 8792 3132 8795 3130 8794 3128 8795
3127 8798 3125 8794 3123 8793 3112 8844
3126 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 250DEG 32KT 3121 8839
$$
TORMOB
ALC129-160200-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0071.110416T0111Z-110416T0200Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
811 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
* AT 807 PM CDT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND 9 MILES EAST OF
LEAKESVILLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF STATE LINE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MCINTOSH AROUND 845 PM CDT...
CORTELUOU AROUND 855 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3149 8791 3144 8793 3143 8791 3141 8792
3141 8790 3136 8789 3133 8791 3134 8792
3132 8792 3132 8795 3130 8794 3128 8795
3127 8798 3125 8794 3123 8793 3112 8844
3126 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 250DEG 32KT 3121 8839
$$
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS
GEORGIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 145. WATCH NUMBER 145 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
915 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST IN GA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS PER THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z FFC SOUNDING. SURFACE
COOLING WITH NIGHTFALL WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
PROGRESSES EWD FROM AL INTO GA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...THOMPSON
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 915 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATHENS
GEORGIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 145. WATCH NUMBER 145 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
915 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...WW 143...WW 144...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST IN GA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS PER THE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z FFC SOUNDING. SURFACE
COOLING WITH NIGHTFALL WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
PROGRESSES EWD FROM AL INTO GA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...THOMPSON
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/SWRN INDIANA/WRN KY/MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...143...
VALID 160115Z - 160215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142...143...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND THUS NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SLOW DIURNAL AIRMASS
STABILIZATION CONTINUES. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ATTM INVOF THE TN
RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT LIMITED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- PARTICULARLY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND...WITH A BIT LESSER POTENTIAL NWD INTO ERN IL. BEYOND
02Z...THREAT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...
LAT...LON 35028761 35598867 38078809 38998805 40838959 40458838
38768670 37058607 35088646 35028761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/SWRN INDIANA/WRN KY/MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...143...
VALID 160115Z - 160215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142...143...CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AND THUS NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SLOW DIURNAL AIRMASS
STABILIZATION CONTINUES. STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN ATTM INVOF THE TN
RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT LIMITED SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- PARTICULARLY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND...WITH A BIT LESSER POTENTIAL NWD INTO ERN IL. BEYOND
02Z...THREAT SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...
LAT...LON 35028761 35598867 38078809 38998805 40838959 40458838
38768670 37058607 35088646 35028761
0 likes
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Sad 
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0
196
NWUS54 KBMX 160213
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0553 PM TORNADO LINDEN 32.31N 87.80W
04/15/2011 MARENGO AL PUBLIC
*** 1 FATAL, 4 INJ *** AN APPARENT TORNADO STRUCK
BELLINGTON CIRCLE APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTH OF LINDEN.
LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED 1 FATALITY AND AT LEAST 4
INJURIES.
&&
$$
KS
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0196
NWUS54 KBMX 160213
LSRBMX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
913 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0553 PM TORNADO LINDEN 32.31N 87.80W
04/15/2011 MARENGO AL PUBLIC
*** 1 FATAL, 4 INJ *** AN APPARENT TORNADO STRUCK
BELLINGTON CIRCLE APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTH OF LINDEN.
LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED 1 FATALITY AND AT LEAST 4
INJURIES.
&&
$$
KS
0 likes
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Hope it's ok to post this video link.
These guys apparently caught a Jackson, MS, tornado. Impressive airflow pattern.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrkzBpeybkc
These guys apparently caught a Jackson, MS, tornado. Impressive airflow pattern.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrkzBpeybkc
0 likes
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Stupid question, how do you post pics? My sis took pictures of damage to our house from the tornado in Tuscaloosa
0 likes
-
BigB0882
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2284
- Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
- Location: Baton Rouge, LA
- Contact:
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
badger70 wrote:Hope it's ok to post this video link.
These guys apparently caught a Jackson, MS, tornado. Impressive airflow pattern.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrkzBpeybkc
Wow, insane video! Hope everyone was OK.
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37991
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Where was the high risk? The PDS watches?
0115 VINEGAR BEND WASHINGTON AL 3126 8834 *** 3 FATAL, 3 INJ *** EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMS THREE FATALITIES IN THE VINEGAR BEND/DEER PARK AREA. THE FATALITIES WERE A MOTHER AND HER TWO CHILDREN. THE FATHER (MOB)
0355 6 NW PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3252 8652 *** 3 FATAL, 4 INJ *** CR 40 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. HOMES DESTROYED. EMA REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN THE ENTIRE AREA. (BMX)
Worst outbreak in years in Alabama. 7 deaths so far. The Autauga storm later came very close to here giving me the biggest true tornado scare in over a decade.
0115 VINEGAR BEND WASHINGTON AL 3126 8834 *** 3 FATAL, 3 INJ *** EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMS THREE FATALITIES IN THE VINEGAR BEND/DEER PARK AREA. THE FATALITIES WERE A MOTHER AND HER TWO CHILDREN. THE FATHER (MOB)
0355 6 NW PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3252 8652 *** 3 FATAL, 4 INJ *** CR 40 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. HOMES DESTROYED. EMA REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN THE ENTIRE AREA. (BMX)
Worst outbreak in years in Alabama. 7 deaths so far. The Autauga storm later came very close to here giving me the biggest true tornado scare in over a decade.
0 likes
#neversummer
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
newtotex wrote:Stupid question, how do you post pics? My sis took pictures of damage to our house from the tornado in Tuscaloosa
You upload them to photobucket or something similar and then you can copy them in here by using the [img] code
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
SPC AC 161257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
AND SRN VA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
IL UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD TODAY...EVOLVING INTO A
POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THE AXIS OF WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CNTRL OH TO WRN NC BY THIS EVE. THE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND OFF
THE NJ CST BY 12Z SUN AS A NEW UPR LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
UPR GRT LKS.
AT THE SFC...DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL DRIFT N ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NOW CRESTING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND ACCELERATE ENE
ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NE INTO CNTRL/SE VA. A WEAK AREA OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR OVER NW NC/SW VA...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH.
...SE GA/CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC...
SCTD TSTMS NOW PRESENT FROM UPSTATE SC TO S GA/THE FL PANHANDLE ARE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S SUPERCELLS IN MS/AL. THE LONGEVITY OF THESE
UPDRAFTS...THEIR MOVEMENT INTO ZONE OF LOW-LVL MOISTENING/WAA OVER
THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY/UPSTATE SC...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE INTO
STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN CHARACTER AND STRENGTH OF
WIND PROFILES...THESE COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
IN THE MEAN TIME...SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S F AND PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY N ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SRN VA TODAY WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ. THIS ...COUPLED
WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA/UPSTATE SC INTO S CNTRL VA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT FROM
NEAR KCHS NWD INTO ERN NC.
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPR FLOW IN EXIT REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF UPR
TROUGH. LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES
AND DMGG WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT
INTO WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THIS AREA WILL
BE SUBJECT TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP WIND FIELD THAN
POINTS FARTHER S...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS
ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR N AS WV/MD/SRN PA BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES/SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/16/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1421Z (10:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
AND SRN VA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...SYNOPSIS...
IL UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD TODAY...EVOLVING INTO A
POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THE AXIS OF WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CNTRL OH TO WRN NC BY THIS EVE. THE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND OFF
THE NJ CST BY 12Z SUN AS A NEW UPR LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
UPR GRT LKS.
AT THE SFC...DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL DRIFT N ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NOW CRESTING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND ACCELERATE ENE
ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NE INTO CNTRL/SE VA. A WEAK AREA OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR OVER NW NC/SW VA...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH.
...SE GA/CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC...
SCTD TSTMS NOW PRESENT FROM UPSTATE SC TO S GA/THE FL PANHANDLE ARE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S SUPERCELLS IN MS/AL. THE LONGEVITY OF THESE
UPDRAFTS...THEIR MOVEMENT INTO ZONE OF LOW-LVL MOISTENING/WAA OVER
THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY/UPSTATE SC...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE INTO
STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN CHARACTER AND STRENGTH OF
WIND PROFILES...THESE COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
IN THE MEAN TIME...SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S F AND PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY N ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SRN VA TODAY WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ. THIS ...COUPLED
WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA/UPSTATE SC INTO S CNTRL VA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT FROM
NEAR KCHS NWD INTO ERN NC.
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPR FLOW IN EXIT REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF UPR
TROUGH. LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES
AND DMGG WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT
INTO WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NEVERTHELESS...THIS AREA WILL
BE SUBJECT TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP WIND FIELD THAN
POINTS FARTHER S...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS
ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR N AS WV/MD/SRN PA BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES/SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/16/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1421Z (10:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN GA...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN AND
EXTREME S-CENTRAL VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...
VALID 161439Z - 161645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 149 CONTINUES.
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW. SVR
POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER ERN
PORTIONS WW...AS WELL AS EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN AND NEWD ALONG
PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS VA. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THOSE AREAS AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EACH STRENGTHEN
THROUGH MIDDAY.
14Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL WV SWD ACROSS
EXTREME WRN VA ...NWRN SC...NEAR GMU...DBN...SWWD ACROSS APALACHEE
BAY. COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS WRN BOUND FOR ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WW AND SURROUNDING AREAS. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
-- WHICH ALSO ACTS AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ALONG SRN EDGE OF
DENSE/MULTILEVEL CLOUD COVER -- WAS ANALYZED INVOF SC/NC
BORDER...AND WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NC AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SRN VA
THROUGH MID-DAY. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S F SERN GA TO COASTAL SC...INCREASING
TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NRN NC AND VA AS WARM FRONT PASSES AND
MORE SUSTAINED BREAKS APPEAR IN CLOUD COVER. THIS ALSO WILL FOSTER
STRONGER SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS THAT ALREADY
APPEARS MINIMALLY CAPPED...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS. MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER
SERN VA/NERN NC...TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER CHS-SAV CORRIDOR. AS THIS
OCCURS...RESULTING IN DEEPENING BUOYANT PROFILE THROUGH
TROPOSPHERE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER TN VALLEY REGION. BOTH PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 55-70 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF NC/SRN VA AND 45-60
KT ACROSS SC. SRH AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED
NEAR WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL TO ITS S AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31938316 32888238 34678182 35598138 36777892 37507737
37557636 36957599 35047730 33767795 33877803 33877857
33287918 33107916 32598002 31728119 31938316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN GA...CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS...SERN AND
EXTREME S-CENTRAL VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 149...
VALID 161439Z - 161645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 149 CONTINUES.
WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW. SVR
POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER ERN
PORTIONS WW...AS WELL AS EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN AND NEWD ALONG
PIEDMONT INTO PORTIONS VA. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THOSE AREAS AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EACH STRENGTHEN
THROUGH MIDDAY.
14Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL WV SWD ACROSS
EXTREME WRN VA ...NWRN SC...NEAR GMU...DBN...SWWD ACROSS APALACHEE
BAY. COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS WRN BOUND FOR ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WW AND SURROUNDING AREAS. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
-- WHICH ALSO ACTS AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ALONG SRN EDGE OF
DENSE/MULTILEVEL CLOUD COVER -- WAS ANALYZED INVOF SC/NC
BORDER...AND WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NC AND PERHAPS PORTIONS SRN VA
THROUGH MID-DAY. WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S F SERN GA TO COASTAL SC...INCREASING
TO UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NRN NC AND VA AS WARM FRONT PASSES AND
MORE SUSTAINED BREAKS APPEAR IN CLOUD COVER. THIS ALSO WILL FOSTER
STRONGER SFC DIABATIC HEATING IN WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS THAT ALREADY
APPEARS MINIMALLY CAPPED...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS. MLCAPE SHOULD RISE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER
SERN VA/NERN NC...TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER CHS-SAV CORRIDOR. AS THIS
OCCURS...RESULTING IN DEEPENING BUOYANT PROFILE THROUGH
TROPOSPHERE...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER TN VALLEY REGION. BOTH PROCESSES SHOULD BOOST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 55-70 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF NC/SRN VA AND 45-60
KT ACROSS SC. SRH AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED
NEAR WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL TO ITS S AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31938316 32888238 34678182 35598138 36777892 37507737
37557636 36957599 35047730 33767795 33877803 33877857
33287918 33107916 32598002 31728119 31938316
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WV INTO SWRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161443Z - 161545Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 1430Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM
JUST E OF PKB TO 30 E OF CRW MOVING FROM 235/45-50 KT. 12Z OBSERVED
AND CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION
IS STILL ELEVATED /BASED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER/ ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED BY REGIONAL VWP DATA /I.E. 50-70
KT SLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR
OF WIND DAMAGE SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
..MEAD.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38288089 38828086 39208107 39518098 40038066 40428037
40477968 40047922 39417932 38887955 38357980 38208028
38288089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WV INTO SWRN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161443Z - 161545Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 1430Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM
JUST E OF PKB TO 30 E OF CRW MOVING FROM 235/45-50 KT. 12Z OBSERVED
AND CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION
IS STILL ELEVATED /BASED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER/ ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED BY REGIONAL VWP DATA /I.E. 50-70
KT SLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL/...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR
OF WIND DAMAGE SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
..MEAD.. 04/16/2011
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38288089 38828086 39208107 39518098 40038066 40428037
40477968 40047922 39417932 38887955 38357980 38208028
38288089
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011
Brent wrote:Where was the high risk? The PDS watches?
0115 VINEGAR BEND WASHINGTON AL 3126 8834 *** 3 FATAL, 3 INJ *** EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMS THREE FATALITIES IN THE VINEGAR BEND/DEER PARK AREA. THE FATALITIES WERE A MOTHER AND HER TWO CHILDREN. THE FATHER (MOB)
0355 6 NW PRATTVILLE AUTAUGA AL 3252 8652 *** 3 FATAL, 4 INJ *** CR 40 SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. HOMES DESTROYED. EMA REPORTS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN THE ENTIRE AREA. (BMX)
Worst outbreak in years in Alabama. 7 deaths so far. The Autauga storm later came very close to here giving me the biggest true tornado scare in over a decade.
Watches 141 and 144 had numbers that warranted PDS watches (70/60 and 80/60) and should have been PDS on that alone but Mead I guess is more conservative and didn't put it up, thinking he would reserve it for what he would see as extremely high-end watches like 95/90 or something. Watches 140 and 145 also had borderline-PDS numbers (80/50) but you can't get too aggressive with them so it would have been a judgement call in both cases, I would have held back as the activity appeared to be just developing in the case of 140 (and PDS would have busted on that one - one strong tornado does not make a PDS and most of the activity was in 141 in the end) and slowly fading in 145 (although PDS would have verified).
Generally, any watch with a "significant tornado" probability of 60% or higher should be PDS (in the test wording, it would say "intense tornadoes likely" there). In certain cases, a probability of 80+/50 could be as well if there is a decent chance of violent tornadoes.
The high risk I can see them holding back initially (since the degree of development wasn't clear for a while and it overperformed initially), but at 2000Z I would have personally put it up for SW Alabama and SE Mississippi since it was quite obvious it was happening. Still, they must have saw something we didn't at the time and they might have thought it would weaken in the late afternoon.
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, MHTX5, opticsguy, Storm861 and 80 guests