Global model runs discussion

#1941 Postby **xironman** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 1:44 pm

Euro holds serve

#1942 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 1:50 pm

Better view of the European 850mb. That has to be close to Tropical or Sub tropical status

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Cyclone1 · #1943 Postby **Cyclone1** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:44 pm

Oh? What is this now? Interesting...

#1944 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:56 am

The 4/17/11 00z ECMWF continues to show it.

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#1945 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sun Apr 17, 2011 10:40 pm

My goodness, very interesting indeed. If this storm does actually verify, looks like it could be an early season. :eek:

#1946 Postby **xironman** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:17 am

The Canadian never gives up

Then, as a counter-indicator the NAM has it as well

#1947 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:22 am

Euro 18 00Z

#1948 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 8:04 am

IMHO this looks like an extra-trop that will link up with the front that caused all the havoc thru the south CONUS.

#1949 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 11:18 am

It would be interesting if the same front that spawned all the tornadoes could also be blamed for the first TC of the season. A good headline, anyway.

#1950 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 11:34 am

tolakram wrote:It would be interesting if the same front that spawned all the tornadoes could also be blamed for the first TC of the season. A good headline, anyway.

Actually, that wouldn't be the case. The system that the models have been keying on is from a baroclinically enchanced inverted surface trough that intensified a few days ago downstream from a deep mid/upper trough over the western Atlantic. It's origins are remnants of a decayed frontal boundary associated with a storm that moved through the eastern U.S. TUE-WED of last week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfclo ... _7day.html

I've been following transient circulations embedded with the broad surface trough all weekend. You can see them today...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

The TWDAT has been talking about this area for days now (since at least Friday). I don't see an STC (let alone a TC) coming out of this.

#1951 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 12:21 pm

#1952 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 12:36 pm

Just an upper-level feature embedded in a high-shear environment. Nothing to get excited about.

#1953 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:59 pm

18Z Nam tracks this system (subtropical) genrally W like the other models towards the bahamas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#1954 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:01 pm

12Z CMC also generall west towards the bahamas...ridging well entrenched to the north at the end of the run as well...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#1955 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:02 pm

18Z GFS closes it than open up with a reflection at the end of the run towards the western bahamas/FL...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

#1956 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:03 pm

12Z Nogaps similar to the GFS closed low than opens up as its headed through the bahamas...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

#1957 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:05 pm

12Z ECMWF lifts it NW than abrutly turn is SW into the SE bahamas as ridging along the eastern seaboard becomes entrenched at the end of the run...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

#1958 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Apr 18, 2011 8:23 pm

Interesting that the models keep insisting on closing off a surface low. If the majority still do tomorrow we may just see something IMO. Convection is firing after sunset out there and if it can sustain we just might get a low at the surface.

boca · #1959 Postby **boca** » Tue Apr 19, 2011 1:06 am

The 00GFS has that low meandering around then pulls it west across Florida while fizzleing out.

#1960 Postby **xironman** » Tue Apr 19, 2011 3:51 am

I know this has about a zero chance of being anything subtropical, but winters over and I don't like tracking severe, so it is the only game in town. Just about every model does the same thing, develops a little surface reflection which then gets pushed down towards the Bahamas and gets pummeled by the southern jet. Here they are at the deepest.

Euro

NOGAPS

Ukie

GFS

NAM

Except for the Canadian, it keeps it at a much higher latitude between the northern and southern stream and gets it down to 1000mb, if that happened there could be some debate as to if it had subtropical characteristics

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