Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 170057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN PA/SRN NJ SWD TO ERN
NC...

...S CENTRAL PA SWD TO ERN NC...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS ONGOING ATTM ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SWD TO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN...AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD AHEAD OF A POTENT/NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT/INTENSE SUPERCELL STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL -- EXTEND FROM FAR SERN VA SWD TO COASTAL
NC/THE OUTER BANKS REGION. HERE...MOIST AND UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS /MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW 1500 TO 2500 J/KG PER EVENING RAOBS/
IS AVAILABLE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT /SFC TO 1KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT PER MOREHEAD CITY
NC RAOB AND VAD WIND PROFILE...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KT/. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE -- WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC THROUGH MID EVENING.

FARTHER N...A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS S CENTRAL
PA AND INTO MD/NERN VA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS QUITE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION -- SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER S...THE
INSTABILITY REMAINS MUCH MORE LIMITED...AND WILL DIMINISH MORE
QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING. STILL...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION AND SRN NJ
THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 04/17/2011

[Brent]

Per the SPC page, 10 deaths today.

[CrazyC83]

Per the SPC page, 10 deaths today.

Some of them may be duplicate reports, and some more deaths have not been tabulated, but indeed at least 10.

[NC George]

Nothing serious happened in my immediate area, however tornadoes were spotted around 15 miles from my house in the next county (http://www.wnct.com for pictures). Main thing we received at my location (southern Pitt County) was long term wind between 20-35 miles per hour for hours. Worse wind than some tropical storms we've had, in fact. The actual storms that blew through only lasted for an hour or so.

[CrazyC83]

Last gasp for the outbreak.

WFUS52 KMHX 170139
TORMHX
NCC055-095-170230-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0021.110417T0139Z-110417T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
939 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 937 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CENTER OF LAKE MATTAMUSKEET...OR 10
MILES NORTHWEST OF ENGELHARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTER OF DARE COUNTY BOMBING RANGE...
LAKE WORTH...STUMPY POINT...
MANNS HARBOR...
WANCHESE...MANTEO...
WHALEBONE...NAGS HEAD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AS THEY ARE DIFFICULT TO
SEE. TAKE COVER NOW. DO NOT SEEK VISUAL CONFIRMATION.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9 OR NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 7572 3567 7574 3568 7577 3564 7574
3560 7588 3562 7588 3555 7590 3541 7615
3559 7629 3560 7622 3569 7613 3566 7604
3577 7600 3591 7577 3589 7571 3595 7571
3590 7562 3597 7568 3599 7564 3577 7551
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 235DEG 49KT 3558 7611

$$

8

[Texas Snowman]

Last gasp for the outbreak.

Thank goodness and good riddance.

What a historic tornado outbreak. This will be talked about for years to come.

My prayers are with all of those affected and for those who lost loved ones.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SWRN NJ...DE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 152...

VALID 170158Z - 170300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 152 CONTINUES.

A GENERALLY N-S-ORIENTED QLCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVER ERN PA
AT 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN ERN PORTIONS OF WW152...SHORTLY CROSSING INTO
DE AND SWRN NJ. THIS FEATURE IS BEING MAINTAINED BY A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AMIDST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOA 40 KT
AHEAD OF A SFC LOW OVER THE MD/VA BORDER 35 S CXY AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW. GIVEN THE ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF THE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVE TO THE LEADING CONVECTIVE
LINE...CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE QLCS WILL TAKE THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW152 THROUGH ITS 03Z
EXPIRATION TIME. STRONG FLOW ABOVE THE SFC /1-KM-AGL S-SWLY FLOW
AROUND 60 KT PER DOVER DE VWP/ WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
DMGG WINDS GIVEN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IN DOWNDRAFTS AND
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PRONOUNCED REAR INFLOW JETS. THE THREAT FOR A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
ALSO...SIMILAR THREATS EXIST WITH CONVECTION INVOF A WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS SWRN NJ AND DE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD AND AWAY FROM RELATIVE GREATER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PARCEL BUOYANCY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...LIMITING THE
SEVERE THREAT.

WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 03Z
EXPIRATION TIME...DIABATIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF PARCEL BUOYANCY WITHIN THE ALREADY NARROW MOIST SECTOR
AS CONVECTION TRANSLATES EWD/NEWD. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...AND THUS TORNADO WATCH 152 IS EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z.

..COHEN.. 04/17/2011


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON 38697619 39287604 39707588 40237605 40597651 40727607
40477568 39757519 39347497 38857548 38697619

[CrazyC83]

For the first time in a long time, no tornado warnings. Who would have thought on Thursday morning that it would ultimately end up this bad? 60 hours of terror seem to finally be over. (Don't jinx it with a shipwreck or a Bermuda hit tomorrow though!)

[CrazyC83]

This is tomorrow. All I can say is, Thank God. Next severe threat - maybe another outbreak - is Tuesday in the Midwest.

SPC AC 161638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY INACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ON
SUNDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE ERN STATES AND A ZONAL FLOW
REGIME MATERIALIZES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY REMAIN ACROSS FAR SRN FL ON THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT. TO THE
W...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS UT/CO MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN BOTH THESE AREAS IS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...BUT A CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..JEWELL.. 04/16/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0232Z (10:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

The only remaining warning, for the Outer Banks. Should be the last warning of the outbreak.

US52 KMHX 170223
SVRMHX
NCC055-095-170300-
/O.NEW.KMHX.SV.W.0010.110417T0223Z-110417T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1023 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DARE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HYDE COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 1015 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENGELHARD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCRACOKE...HATTERAS...
BUXTON...AVON...SALVO...WAVES...
RODANTHE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A VEHICLE OR A NEARBY
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A SAFE
SHELTER IF YOU HEAR OR SEE A TORNADO.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING...1...8 0 0...8 8 9...6 8 8 9.... WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 7552 3518 7578 3506 7602 3506 7603
3513 7599 3512 7596 3520 7574 3524 7569
3523 7566 3525 7561 3527 7562 3530 7566
3527 7559 3529 7552 3562 7548 3578 7554
3580 7559 3587 7557 3562 7545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 242DEG 44KT 3539 7581

$$

DAG

[CrazyC83]

My unofficial count of storm reports so far in April: 348 as of now. If that rate was projected for the rest of the month, the final total would be around 680. It would be one of the most insane months in history, up with May 2003, 2004 and 2008.

[Texas Snowman]

My unofficial count of storm reports so far in April: 348 as of now. If that rate was projected for the rest of the month, the final total would be around 680. It would be one of the most insane months in history, up with May 2003, 2004 and 2008.

How many tornado fatalities so far this month?

[CrazyC83]

My unofficial count of storm reports so far in April: 348 as of now. If that rate was projected for the rest of the month, the final total would be around 680. It would be one of the most insane months in history, up with May 2003, 2004 and 2008.

How many tornado fatalities so far this month?

From my best guess, 25. However, there is a lot of uncertainty based on various sources and estimates. That will be sorted out in the days to come.

[CrazyC83]

SAD NEWS - Based on all my assessments and the SPC page, death toll now 43.

14 people, at least, have died in Bertie County, NC.

[Brent]

SAD NEWS - Based on all my assessments and the SPC page, death toll now 43.

14 people, at least, have died in Bertie County, NC.

WTF is with that report. I don't buy it. The town they are reporting it has only 180 people... and not a single media source has it... but it's on the SPC page? I think it's a mistake

[CrazyC83]

SAD NEWS - Based on all my assessments and the SPC page, death toll now 43.

14 people, at least, have died in Bertie County, NC.

WTF is with that report. I don't buy it. The town they are reporting it has only 180 people... and not a single media source has it... but it's on the SPC page? I think it's a mistake

Yeah we'll see if it is confirmed or not. It may get revised downward, or upward. I remember the Enterprise tornado in 2007, it was as high as 19 dead before dropping to 5 (final death toll was 9).

[psyclone]

TWC just mentioned that same info. hopefully it is a mistake but such a high total is certainly possible if a tornado hit a high density/substandard construction development like a campground or mobile home park.

[CrazyC83]

TWC just mentioned that same info. hopefully it is a mistake but such a high total is certainly possible if a tornado hit a high density/substandard construction development like a campground or mobile home park.

That is correct, if it hit a mobile home park the death toll could rise even higher. I cannot see how such a high death toll could happen without it hitting mobile homes in a rural area, even if it was an extremely violent EF4-5 tornado.

[NCHurricane]

This occurred in my home county. From what I understand from EMT sources, a mobile home park was leveled (this has NOT been confirmed), but would explain a high number.

[CrazyC83]

This occurred in my home county. From what I understand from EMT sources, a mobile home park was leveled (this has NOT been confirmed), but would explain a high number.

That seems to make sense, so I would be worried to see the number rise more. It doesn't take a violent EF5 tornado to destroy a mobile home park - even an EF2 would destroy it and an EF3 would flatten it. Glad you are safe BTW!!!