Caribbean - Central America Weather

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BatzVI
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8541 Postby BatzVI » Thu Apr 14, 2011 2:47 pm

Very, very wet day here in St. Thomas. Much needed, but not all at once.

Stay safe all.
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8542 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 14, 2011 3:02 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

PRC055-059-111-153-142130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0034.110414T1936Z-110414T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-PENUELAS PR-
336 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 333 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST THOUGH 5:30 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1795 6693 1808 6691 1810 6672 1798 6675

$$

MARTINEZ
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8543 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 14, 2011 3:56 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

PRC043-123-142315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0035.110414T2023Z-110414T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-SALINAS PR-
423 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO AND SALINAS

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 422 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST THOUGH 7:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1803 6635 1808 6639 1810 6627 1809 6622
1803 6618 1800 6621 1797 6634

$$

MARTINEZ
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8544 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:34 pm

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
VIC030-150215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0003.110415T0022Z-110415T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
822 PM AST THU APR 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING ISLAND

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 813 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
GUTS AND FLOODING ACROSS THE ISLAND. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS
SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6483 1829 6503 1838 6503 1837 6484

$$

MARTINEZ

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8545 Postby tropicana » Thu Apr 14, 2011 8:08 pm

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Wed-8pmET Thur) for
Thu Apr 14 2011

RAINS FALL FROM ST LUCIA NORTH TO VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOWERS ALSO DOUSE PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.2C 92F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.6C 89F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.9C 88F

Point Salines, Grenada 29.4C 85F trace
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.0C 86F trace
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.2C 86F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 29.8C 86F 0.9mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.2C 85F 8.9mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 29.6C 85F 5.0mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 29.4C 85F 68.8mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 30.1C 86F 0.5mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 29.0C 84F trace
LeRaizet, Guadeloupe 27.1C 81F 1.6mm (thunderstorms)

Golden Rock, St Kitts 28.5C 84F 0.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 27.3c 81F 3.0mm
St Croix, VI 28.9C 84F 5.8mm
St Thomas, VI 27.2C 81F 29.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 29.4C 85F trace

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.6C 87F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.1C 88F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.8C 87F
Havana, Cuba 31.4C 88F 0.6mm
Key West, FL 28.3C 83F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 30.6C 87F
Nassau, Bahamas 29.4C 85F 18.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 21.9C 72F

Hato Curacao 30.2C 86F 0.1mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 31.1C 88F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 29.1C 85F 1.7mm

Cayenne, French Guiana 31.4C 88F 0.2mm

HAVANA, CUBA Thu Apr 14 2011 (abbreviated excerpt from the BBC)

Cuba is facing its worst drought in half a century, with tens of thousands of families almost entirely reliant on water trucks for essential supplies.
The drought started two years ago, and reservoirs are now down to a fifth of their normal levels.

The government is providing road deliveries of water to more than 100,000 people in the worst affected areas of the capital, Havana.
The situation in Havana is compounded by a pipe network in poor condition.

The state-run newspaper Granma says up to 70% of water pipes supplying the capital are leaking and in urgent need of repair. Residents are having to use buckets and bottles to fill up with water from the road deliveries.

Cubans are hoping the rainy season in May and June will bring some respite.
But even a normal rainfall will not be enough to fill up the reservoirs.

-justin-
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Re: Carib - CA=Trough still affecting Eastern Caribbean

#8546 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:47 am

Good morning.Less rain for today as trough moves slowly away,but the afternoon heating will cause showers to form in interior Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI APR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO
EASTERN HISPANOLA WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FA TONIGHT. THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AT LOW LEVEL WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN HISPANOLA/MONA PASSAGE...
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RAGGED BAND
OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...LIES
ALONG AND BENEATH THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED
BETWEEN THE USVI AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. GEFS MEAN SUGGESTS
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE
FA TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY CLOSE AFTER THIS
EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO RESULT IN INTENSE AND SLOW
MOVING AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR THE
WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC LEADING TO THE EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FORESEEN IN NEXT
5 DAYS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED DUE TO BKN
CLOUDS BELOW 3K FT AT TJBQ...TJMZ...TIST AND TISX. AFT 15/17Z...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVR THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. LLVL WNDS FROM ENE AT 5-15 KTS BTWN SFC TO
5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE AT
LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
15 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. LOOKING AHEAD...WAVEWATCH III MODEL
IS SHOWING A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING
SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 73 / 60 30 20 10
STT 82 73 84 75 / 60 30 20 10

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8547 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 15, 2011 1:37 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

PRC009-015-035-057-109-123-152200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0040.110415T1806Z-110415T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-SALINAS PR-
206 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAYEY...AIBONITO...ARROYO...PATILLAS...GUAYAMA AND SALINAS

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 206 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 6:00 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1813 6624 1810 6604 1795 6601 1795 6628

$$

CASTRO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
121 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

PRC075-111-113-149-152015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0039.110415T1721Z-110415T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
121 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 118 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE MUNICIPALITY OF PONCE...INCLUDING THE PORTUGUES
DAM CONSTRUCTION. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD
TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR
FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST THOUGH 4:15 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1813 6672 1813 6647 1802 6648 1805 6672

$$

CASTRO
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8548 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 15, 2011 1:40 pm

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC059-111-113-152115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0005.110415T1813Z-110415T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA
PONCE
PENUELAS

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 207 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE PENUELAS AND
PONCE COUNTY LINE WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO FIVE INCHES AN
HOUR. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE
GUAYANES RIVER AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN PENUELAS AND
WESTERN PONCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1792 6650 1796 6653 1792 6657 1795 6684
1800 6684 1810 6682 1814 6678 1811 6674
1817 6658 1789 6648 1788 6650 1789 6654

$$

ROSA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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#8549 Postby msbee » Fri Apr 15, 2011 2:09 pm

thunderstorm here with moderate. sometimes heavy, rain.
Last edited by msbee on Fri Apr 15, 2011 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8550 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 15, 2011 2:10 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

PRC093-121-125-153-152130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0041.110415T1832Z-110415T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
232 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND YAUCO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 232 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 5:30 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6705 1818 6680 1801 6686 1808 6709

$$

CASTRO
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8551 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 15, 2011 2:24 pm

Finnally,the trough is on the move and away from the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI APR 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLC WILL
INDUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE SOME VERY INTENSE RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
SRN SLOPES...CVRG HAS BEEN NOTABLY LESS THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS HAVE ALSO
TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTH AND THIS WILL ACT TO ENTRAIN DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. OVERALL...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
FOR SUN AND MON. XPCT SHALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO RETURN TO
THE NORTH COAST ON PR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT ATLC AND 2-4 CARIB WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 40 30 10 0
STT 73 84 75 84 / 40 30 10 0

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8552 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:44 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
INDUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND AND
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GPS-MET OBS AND MIMIC TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW
1.35 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI. ALTHOUGH...DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND ONE INCH FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
MAKE FOR A LOT MORE SUNSHINE. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THE DAYTIME. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
AND EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

ON THE MEDIUM RANGE...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL SEND SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE DO
NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THAT TIME...WILL PROBABLY
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES TIL 16/17Z WITH
NE SFC FLOW 5 TO 15 KT. AFT 16/17Z AREAS OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR PR. MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR
CONDS PSBL AT TJPS IN TSTM TIL 16/22Z OTHERWISE ALL TAF SITES VFR
THROUGH 17/06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE TRANQUIL SIDE AT
LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 73 / 20 10 0 0
STT 84 74 85 74 / 20 10 0 0

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8553 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 16, 2011 2:23 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SAT APR 16 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WITH BASE NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE FILLING THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL BE REINFORCED
ONCE AGAIN BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THEN DEEPEN AND DIP SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
STRONG 1037 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... RIDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC... AND AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL
LINGER AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DECLINE ACROSS THE REGION...AS DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...POCKETS OF LINGERING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO INDUCE SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER
ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY
OR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED NEAR ONE INCH OR
LESS. THEREFORE...LOOKING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DAYS...WITH FEW PASSING EARLY MORNING AND
LATE EVENING SHOWERS ALONG PART OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND MAINLY THE REST OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...
SAINT CROIX SHOULD EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES OVER THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

LOW LEVEL TROUGHS MENTIONED EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
HELP ENHANCE AND SEND OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY DAY AND THIS MAY
ALSO HELP ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME.
STILL HOWEVER... DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS...
EXCEPTION AT TJPS AND VCNTY WITH BRIEF MVFR IN BRIEF ISOLD -SHRA
TIL 17/22Z. NE FLOW SFC TO FL150 AT 5 TO 15 KT...GRADUALLY BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY W/HT LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 72 85 / 10 10 0 0
STT 74 86 74 85 / 10 0 0 0

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8554 Postby tropicana » Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:47 pm

Regional Highs and Rain (rain is 8pmET Fri-8pmET Sat) for
Sat Apr 16 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 34.5C 94F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 32.4C 90F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.4C 85F 2.0mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.5C 87F 0.1mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.0C 86F
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.9C 86F 0.7mm
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.8C 86F

VC Bird, Antigua 27.8C 82F 3.6mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.0C 84F 0.6mm
St Thomas, VI 26.1C 79F trace
St Croix, VI 25.6C 78F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 28.9C 84F 8.6mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.9C 88F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.5C 89F trace
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.7C 91F
Havana, Cuba 32.0C 90F
Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Miami, FL 31.1C 88F 21.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 30.2C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 31.0C 70F

Cayenne, French Guiana 30.6C 87F trace
Timehri, Guyana 33.4C 92F

-justin-
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Re:

#8555 Postby tropicana » Sat Apr 16, 2011 7:49 pm

msbee wrote:thunderstorm here with moderate. sometimes heavy, rain.



hey Barb, 43.9mm fell with those thunderstorms yesterday at Juliana Airport, St Maarten.

-justin-
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8556 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:43 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST SUN APR 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE EAST WHILE ANOTHER 80 KNOT JET MOVES INTO PLACE JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE JET IS TO
REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WEAKENING SLOWLY.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY BUT RE-EMERGE NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL BE THE ONLY FEATURE NEARBY TO ALTER THE INFLUENCE OF
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROUGHINESS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THEN EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW CARRIED SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NOT IN THE SHADOW OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS CAME ONSHORE
FROM ARECIBO TO CEIBA...OTHERS GRAZED THE SMALLER ISLANDS TO THE
EAST INCLUDING SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. THE TROUGH TO THE EAST
MENTIONED ABOVE IS A MANIFESTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA AND AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RISE RAPIDLY
IN A JAGGED FASHION NOW THROUGH FRIDAY FROM LESS THAN EIGHT TENTHS
OF AND INCH TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ON FRIDAY WHERE THEY
REMAIN...WITH VARIATIONS...THROUGH THE FOLLOWING FOUR DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST A
BAND OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY BUT MODEL TIMING IS
MORE THAN 12 HOURS APART. MOISTURE APPEARS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AT MID LEVELS AND MAY HELP SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NNE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLD -SHRA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. PASSING -SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE SEA
BREEZES TAKE OVER. BRIEF MVFR CONDS PSBL AT TJPS BTWN 17/17-22Z
OTHERWISE ALL TAF SITES VFR. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
POSSIBLE DURING SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF PR.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE WEEK IN SPITE
OF SOME WIND WAVES ON TUESDAY BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
TROUGHINESS SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH...WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 30

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8557 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:34 pm

This will be the last discussion from the San Juan NWS that I will post before I start a long vacation of 18 days. I am sure that Justin (tropicana) will continue to post the daily temps and rainfall thru the region.And,all can continue to post the weather observations from where you are in the Caribbean and Central America. See you after May 6 Caribbean and Central American friends :)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
241 PM AST SUN APR 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTHWARDS TO JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALLOWING THE GENERAL WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY LEAD TO OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. RETURN FLOW AROUND UPPER TROUGH
WHICH DIPS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN HELP TO PROVIDE FAIRLY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND SUPPRESSED AND SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN ATLANTIC
HIGH AND ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A GENERAL TREND
OF PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUD FRAGMENTS AND INTERVALS OF LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING
THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY HOWEVER BE ENHANCED DUE TO DIURNAL AND
LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS...AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET SEGMENT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. FORESEE
NO MAJOR INFLUX OF DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AT THIS TIME...SO FOR NOW KEPT POPS AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS FOR MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

A RETURN OF THE EASTERLY TRADES IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN LINGERING EAST OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY
BECOMES FLATTENED BY A DEEP LAYERED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EASTWARD PROPAGATION
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION....AND THUS INCREASE CHANCES
OR LOCAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG
NEXT 24 HRS. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS IS FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 85 75 85 / 10 10 30 30

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8558 Postby CajunMama » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:59 pm

You can also check out the NWS San Juan page yourself. If you don't have it bookmarked it'd be a good idea and then you can check it anytime you want.

San Juan NWS Page
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

#8559 Postby tropicana » Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:26 pm

we will miss you luis, hurry back!

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sat-8pmET Sun) for
Sun Apr 17 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.5C 91F 3.2mm
Crown Point, Tobago 30.3C 86F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.0C 86F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 29.4C 85F 34.7mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 29.2C 85F 2.0mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 29.5C 85F
Canefield Airport, Dominica 29.8C 86F
LeLamentin, Martinique 30.0C 86F

VC Bird, Antigua 28.5C 84F
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.6C 85F
San Juan, PR 28.3C 83F 0.3mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.4C 86F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.0C 88F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.4C 90F
Havana, Cuba 30.7C 87F
Marathon, FL 32.2C 90F
Key West, FL 28.3C 83F
Miami, FL 31.6C 89F 32.0mm (late afternoon thunderstorms)
Nassau, Bahamas 30.8C 87F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.5C 73F

Timehri, Guyana 33.7C 93F
Cayenne, French Guiana 31.2C 88F

-justin-
Last edited by tropicana on Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8560 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 11:44 pm

How often does Bermuda get severe weather? It seems the storm producing the outbreak is headed there. Has there ever been a tornado there?
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