Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011

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GCANE
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Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011

#401 Postby GCANE » Sun Apr 17, 2011 7:03 am

This truly was an amazing outbreak.

My thoughts and prayers go out for everyone affected by this disaster.

IMHO, there was not that much GOM moisture feeding this system and the surface low was not all that deep.

I have seen stronger amplitudes and yet not that many PDS's and tornado emergencies.

Also, have seen stronger jets and yet not that much tornadoes; both in terms of numbers and severity.

This seemed to be all driven by mid-level dynamics particularly the negative tilt and strong PV anomaly that dug down into the 320K level.


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#402 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Apr 17, 2011 11:34 am

Image

Using powerpoint, I overlapped the last 3 days of preliminary storm reports. Horrible outbreak
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#403 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 11:56 am

Biggest outbreak in a long time. Absolutely amazing.

To think of it, if the storm wasn't over the ocean now, we could be seeing this YET AGAIN today...
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Re: Severe Storms OK & KS 4/14/11. South 4/15/11. EC 4/16/2011

#404 Postby TFGQ » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:20 pm

WOW the last 3 days be really wild i do not ever recall a outbreak like this before
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#405 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 17, 2011 12:43 pm

Well done, Hurakan. Absolutely stunning. Are the the surveys out, yet ?
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Re:

#406 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:12 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Well done, Hurakan. Absolutely stunning. Are the the surveys out, yet ?


So far, 50 tornadoes have been rated. But there are many, many more still to come. I am guessing the final total will be around 150.
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#407 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 2:14 pm

I should be in NC right now, helping with the recovery...not stuck at Fort Drum ><
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Re:

#408 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 3:52 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I should be in NC right now, helping with the recovery...not stuck at Fort Drum ><


Any chance you can get a leave of absence?
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Re: Re:

#409 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:I should be in NC right now, helping with the recovery...not stuck at Fort Drum ><


Any chance you can get a leave of absence?

Nope...too much stuff going on this week, supposed to be in the field all week...plus, no one in my "immediate family" suffered (or was killed) from the storms.
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#410 Postby StormingB81 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:03 pm

I haven't seen any post about this tornado but I left this area last Saturday. However a Tornado struck Jacksonville, NC yesterday hitting Military housing injuring several including two serious injuries one which was a child. A wall fell on the 18 month old child and at first was unresponsive. They did CPR and is now at the hospital on a ventilator with a broken leg, 2 broken ribs and a collapsed lung in critical condition

http://www.jdnews.com/news/declared-901 ... gency.html
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#411 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:22 pm

Did the forecasting guys mention why they didn´t consider to go high, maybe different from the normal update time at 20/1 z, or why they didn´t pds some of the watches ?
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Re:

#412 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:33 pm

Bunkertor wrote:Did the forecasting guys mention why they didn´t consider to go high, maybe different from the normal update time at 20/1 z, or why they didn´t pds some of the watches ?


They did yesterday. But for Friday, not sure.
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#413 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:35 pm

StormingB81 wrote:I haven't seen any post about this tornado but I left this area last Saturday. However a Tornado struck Jacksonville, NC yesterday hitting Military housing injuring several including two serious injuries one which was a child. A wall fell on the 18 month old child and at first was unresponsive. They did CPR and is now at the hospital on a ventilator with a broken leg, 2 broken ribs and a collapsed lung in critical condition

http://www.jdnews.com/news/declared-901 ... gency.html

Yes...that tornado was warned for, as well, from MHX (Newport/Morehead City)...there were reports of touchdowns in Piney Green as well as on Camp Lejeune.
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Re: Re:

#414 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:37 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:I haven't seen any post about this tornado but I left this area last Saturday. However a Tornado struck Jacksonville, NC yesterday hitting Military housing injuring several including two serious injuries one which was a child. A wall fell on the 18 month old child and at first was unresponsive. They did CPR and is now at the hospital on a ventilator with a broken leg, 2 broken ribs and a collapsed lung in critical condition

http://www.jdnews.com/news/declared-901 ... gency.html

Yes...that tornado was warned for, as well, from MHX (Newport/Morehead City)...there were reports of touchdowns in Piney Green as well as on Camp Lejeune.


My guess is that the tornado there will be rated EF3.
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Re: Re:

#415 Postby Bunkertor » Sun Apr 17, 2011 4:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:Did the forecasting guys mention why they didn´t consider to go high, maybe different from the normal update time at 20/1 z, or why they didn´t pds some of the watches ?


They did yesterday. But for Friday, not sure.


Do you have a link ?
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Re: Re:

#416 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:24 pm

Bunkertor wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Bunkertor wrote:Did the forecasting guys mention why they didn´t consider to go high, maybe different from the normal update time at 20/1 z, or why they didn´t pds some of the watches ?


They did yesterday. But for Friday, not sure.


Do you have a link ?


Read back through posts. There was a High Risk (at 1630Z and 2000Z) and a PDS watch yesterday. Both verified very well.
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#417 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:26 pm

One thing that catches my eye looking at the reports: the states of Georgia and Tennessee got extremely lucky with this outbreak. There wasn't much damage at all in either state despite catastrophic damage all around them.
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#418 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:47 pm

Brunota2003, apperantly there was a touchdown between New Bern and Havelock heavily damaging numerous homes in one subdivision off highway 70. It was about 4 mile southeast from my house. I found small pieces of insulation in my yard this morning. I lost power right before it hit. very scary stuff. New Bern and Havelock were spared from damage apperantly.
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Re:

#419 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 5:59 pm

Tstormwatcher wrote:Brunota2003, apperantly there was a touchdown between New Bern and Havelock heavily damaging numerous homes in one subdivision off highway 70. It was about 4 mile southeast from my house. I found small pieces of insulation in my yard this morning. I lost power right before it hit. very scary stuff. New Bern and Havelock were spared from damage apperantly.

Yeah, along Catfish Lake Road...I just read the article on havenews.com about it, apparently one woman slept right through it, and the tornado passed right next to her house it seems.

EDIT:

Speaking of that tornado...the report (prelim) for that tornado is now out...it went from Onslow into Craven, rated an EF3:

576
NOUS42 KMHX 172221
PNSMHX
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-180230-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
621 PM EDT SUN APR 17 2011

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JACKSONVILLE IN ONSLOW COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN THE RIVERDALE SECTION OF CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA...

LOCATION...JACKSONVILLE IN ONSLOW COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA AND
RIVERDALE IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...APRIL 17 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...800-845 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...145 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...1/4 MILE
PATH LENGTH...DISCONTINUOUS. 3.7 MILES IN JACKSONVILLE AND 0.6 MILES
IN RIVERDALE
FATALITIES...0
INJURIES...APPROX 43 IN ONSLOW COUNTY

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC HAS
CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR JACKSONVILLE IN ONSLOW COUNTY NORTH
CAROLINA AND IN THE RIVERDALE SECTION OF CRAVEN COUNTY ON APRIL
17 2011.

THE TORNADO EITHER LIFTED OR HAD A DISCONTINUOUS PATH AFTER
EFFECTING THE PINEY GREEN AREA OF JACKSONVILLE BEFORE TOUCHING
DOWN AGAIN IN THE RIVERDALE SECTION OF CRAVEN COUNTY. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM VISITED 4 LOCATIONS
ALONG THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.

THE INITIAL DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE TARAWA TERRACE HOUSING AREA OF
CAMP LEJEUNE. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AT EF2 IN THIS AREA WITH WIND
SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 125 MPH WITH A WIDTH OF 100 YARDS.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO CAUSE DAMAGE AS IT TRACKED ACROSS ROUTE
24 AND INTO THE HOLIDAY CITY SUBDIVISION OF JACKSONVILLE. THE
HOLIDAY CITY SUBDIVISION RECEIVED EF2 TORNADO DAMAGE WITH WIND
SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 125 MPH AND A WIDTH OF 100 YARD.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED ON A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH THE NEXT OBSERVED
DAMAGE IN THE COLONIAL HEIGHTS AND MONTCLAIR SUBDIVISIONS ON EITHER
SIDE OF PINEY GREEN ROAD. THE TORNADO CAUSED THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED OVER PINEY GREEN ROAD INTO THE MONTCLAIR
SUBDIVISION WHERE ISOLATED EF3 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED. WIND SPEEDS IN
THIS AREA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 145 MPH. THE INITIAL DAMAGE PATH
WIDTH OF 1/4 MILE IN THE COLONIAL HEIGHTS SUBDIVISION NARROWED TO
100 YARDS AS IT CROSSED PINEY GREEN ROAD AND INTO THE MONTCLAIR
SUBDIVISION.

THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF THIS PATH OF THE TORNADO IS 3.7 MILES...
DURING THE 800-815 PM TIMEFRAME.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE PINEY GREEN AREA...THE TORNADO AFFECTED
A HEAVILY WOODED AREA OF THE CROATAN NATIONAL FOREST AND MAY HAVE
LIFTED BEFORE TOUCHING DOWN AGAIN IN THE RIVERDALE SECTION OF
CRAVEN COUNTY. DAMAGE IN THE RIVERDALE AREA IS RATED EF2 WITH
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 125 MPH. THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED AT 0.6
MILES IN LENGTH AND A WIDTH OF 200 YARDS.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/MHX.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

CULLEN/GLENN/MELENDEZ
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#420 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Apr 17, 2011 6:11 pm

As for other tornado ratings, I wonder what Askewville will get? Some speculation of really high ratings...EF4 or even EF5 perhaps? Has there ever been an F5/EF5 in North Carolina?
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