Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
That is a heck of a hodo twist thru the boundary layer in mid IL
0 likes
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SW-CNTRL-ERN MO...SW IL...FAR NW AR...NE OK AND FAR
SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191740Z - 191915Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND ERN MO SWWD
ACROSS SW MO AND FAR SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL-ERN MO AND SW
IL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL AND SRN IND. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR SE KS INTO NE OK.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR
THE SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING FOCUSED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION IN WRN
MO OVER THE NEXT HOUR WHERE ECHOES ARE STARTING TO BE OBSERVED NEAR
THE KS-MO STATE-LINE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT CNTRL MO EWD INTO SW IL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS MATURE.
..BROYLES.. 04/19/2011
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SW-CNTRL-ERN MO...SW IL...FAR NW AR...NE OK AND FAR
SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191740Z - 191915Z
A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CNTRL AND ERN MO SWWD
ACROSS SW MO AND FAR SE KS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. A TORNADO
THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL-ERN MO AND SW
IL. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT HOUR.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN IL AND SRN IND. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR SE KS INTO NE OK.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION NEAR
THE SFC LOW IN WRN MO WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING FOCUSED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION IN WRN
MO OVER THE NEXT HOUR WHERE ECHOES ARE STARTING TO BE OBSERVED NEAR
THE KS-MO STATE-LINE. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT CNTRL MO EWD INTO SW IL. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS MATURE.
..BROYLES.. 04/19/2011
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Probs are 70/40.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NEAR COU WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY
20/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON BOTH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN MO AS WELL
AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AS REMAINING CAP IS REMOVED. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ALTON
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NEAR COU WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL IL BY
20/00Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED NWD RETREAT OF WARM FRONT TO VICINITY OF
THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON BOTH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER W-CNTRL/SWRN MO AS WELL
AS ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT AS REMAINING CAP IS REMOVED. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40-50 KT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
0 likes
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Looks like early initiation.
Could blow up rapidly with LI -9 to -11 along the developing line.
Could blow up rapidly with LI -9 to -11 along the developing line.
0 likes
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
James Hilger has a good view on the SW corner of the watch box.
http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen
http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen
0 likes
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AR / ERN OK / N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191840Z - 191945Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM
INITIATION IS FIRST EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
OK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR AND PERHAPS FAR NERN TX.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR JLN SWWD
NEAR ADM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE AUS AND
SAT VICINITY. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
EWD MOVING SURFACE FEATURES WITH MLCAPE ALREADY 3000-4000 J/KG /PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S/90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OK AND HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY GLANCE THE REGION AS FAR S
AS N-CNTRL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT WILL ENABLE THE CAP TO ERODE INITIALLY
ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR WHERE CU ARE ALREADY BECOMING AGITATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST
/N OF THE RED RIVER/. FARTHER S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE
BREACHED LOCALLY--RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY/S...UPDRAFTS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THE FAVORED STORM MODE. A
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...IN ADDITION TO
DMGG WINDS AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS
GREATEST GENERALLY OVER OK/AR/FAR NERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST.
..SMITH.. 04/19/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AR / ERN OK / N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191840Z - 191945Z
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM
INITIATION IS FIRST EXPECTED OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR ALONG COLD FRONT.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
OK AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR AND PERHAPS FAR NERN TX.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR JLN SWWD
NEAR ADM WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD NEAR THE AUS AND
SAT VICINITY. THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
EWD MOVING SURFACE FEATURES WITH MLCAPE ALREADY 3000-4000 J/KG /PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/ AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AS TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S/90S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN OK AND HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MAY GLANCE THE REGION AS FAR S
AS N-CNTRL TX. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT WILL ENABLE THE CAP TO ERODE INITIALLY
ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR WHERE CU ARE ALREADY BECOMING AGITATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST
/N OF THE RED RIVER/. FARTHER S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE
BREACHED LOCALLY--RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING MID-UPPER WSWLY/S...UPDRAFTS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS THE FAVORED STORM MODE. A
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST...IN ADDITION TO
DMGG WINDS AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS
GREATEST GENERALLY OVER OK/AR/FAR NERN TX WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST.
..SMITH.. 04/19/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Tornado Watch for NE TX/E OK/W AR...
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Extreme hail greatest threat (might want a 60H hail area) but tornadoes possible. 4 inches might be conservative but as high as the software goes I believe. Probs for tornadoes 50/20, hail 90/80.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...
DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED AT AN ANGLE TO THE FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELD. VERY LARGE HAIL /I.E. GREATER THAN BASEBALL SIZE/ WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...MEAD
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF HARRISON
ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DALLAS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 154...
DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED AT AN ANGLE TO THE FRONT IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL
EVOLUTION GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELD. VERY LARGE HAIL /I.E. GREATER THAN BASEBALL SIZE/ WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES OF 150-300 M2/S2.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...MEAD
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Things starting to fire in S/C Oklahoma to east of Ardmore and maybe along the Red River west of Sherman/Denison.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Very near Tushka, which was the first community to be devastated in the last outbreak.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC029-063-192030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0040.110419T1942Z-110419T2030Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COAL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN HUGHES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CENTRAHOMA TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OLNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CENTRAHOMA...CLARITA...COALGATE...
OLNEY AND TUPELO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
&&
LAT...LON 3460 9609 3443 9641 3443 9651 3463 9650
3469 9643 3469 9641 3471 9640 3478 9626
3490 9609 3469 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 242DEG 37KT 3463 9628
$$
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC029-063-192030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0040.110419T1942Z-110419T2030Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COAL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN HUGHES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 330 PM CDT
* AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CENTRAHOMA TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OLNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CENTRAHOMA...CLARITA...COALGATE...
OLNEY AND TUPELO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
&&
LAT...LON 3460 9609 3443 9641 3443 9651 3463 9650
3469 9643 3469 9641 3471 9640 3478 9626
3490 9609 3469 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 242DEG 37KT 3463 9628
$$
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Southernmost storm on the dry line to the west of Durant really starting to blow up too.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Some storms are starting up in between Hannibal, MO and Versailles, MO.
0 likes
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
First tornado warning up (radar indicated). Details spared until we have confirmation.
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
That Atoka County storm on radar has a nice hook to it...
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Texas Snowman wrote:That Atoka County storm on radar has a nice hook to it...
It's very close to areas hit last Thursday as well!
0 likes
-
Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6151
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Next Round of Severe Weather Begins 4/19, Midwest
Storm southwest of Sherman is starting to look like it is trying to develop a hook on the backend. No warning yet for that storm.
Also a severe storm in Denton County north of D/FW.
Hope this isn't a similar event in my part of the world to last Thursday when Tushka/Atoka got hit.
Also a severe storm in Denton County north of D/FW.
Hope this isn't a similar event in my part of the world to last Thursday when Tushka/Atoka got hit.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane and 41 guests