ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

exposed

[boca]

How do you read that map?

That's what you would see from a well developed broad Cat 2 cane.

The wind field is a TD signature.

Something is very weird here.

Thanks and it looks like a cold core system too.

[GCANE]

Wind gradient also showing an anti-cyclone over a mid-level PV anomaly.

[boca]

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/7810/169xhy.jpg

exposed

Actually since yesterday I think its been exposed because I've been following the swirl moving WNW

[Ivanhater]

Convection is on the increase

[GCANE]

BOCA:

Actually that is a +2C warm core at 12km altitude - optimum height for a TC.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Convection is on the increase

what dose this mean????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[boca]

Convection is on the increase

I noticed on the sat picks that the moisture field is like 600 miles across from east to west with this system.

[Ivanhater]

BOCA:

Actually that is a +2C warm core at 12km altitude - optimum height for a TC.

Yes, this is currently warm core and winds of 40mph. With models like the Euro showing intensification up until Saturday, the NHC may upgrade. We will see.

[GCANE]

Getting an impressive in-feed from the ITCZ

[boca]

BOCA:

Actually that is a +2C warm core at 12km altitude - optimum height for a TC.

I appreciate that its actually on a floater now.

[HURAKAN]

vorticity increasing

[boca]

You can see the swirl at the bottom edge of the higher cloud tops at the end of the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[JonathanBelles]

Wind gradient also showing an anti-cyclone over a mid-level PV anomaly.

Can you explain your comment?

[GCANE]

Wind gradient also showing an anti-cyclone over a mid-level PV anomaly.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 5_VGRD.GIF

Can you explain your comment?

The solid lines represent cyclonic winds rotating around the center which is the left axis of the graph.

The dashed lines are anti-cyclonic winds.

So, the Potential Vorticity max is at about 225 km radius from the center of circulation at an elevation of about 9km.

Above it is the anti-cyclone that will aid ventilation.

[ROCK]

best looking swirl all season.. ...too early though...

[Gustywind]

Yellow Code

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201935
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[wxman57]

Not much chance of it developing any further than it already has. Just way too much shear in its path. Probably won't even survive to produce much rain in the Bahamas, much less Florida.

[AdamFirst]

Is this swirl related from the trough that dumped a bunch of rain on the leewards last week?