ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

AL, 91, 2011042218, , BEST, 0, 265N, 640W, 35, 1007, LO

back up to 35 knots

[Ivanhater]

Looks quite impressive. I think that if this system was impacting any land areas that it would be classified as a subtropical storm regardless of its structure. But since it's well out to sea, there's no good reason to upgrade it. NHC is in the business of protecting people, not seeing that every possible system in the basin is named. In any case, shear should be on the increase today/Saturday, which should strip the convection off to the east of the LLC.

That is interesting. So technically this is Sub tropical storm Arlene is what I'm gathering. It becomes muddy and confusing when trying to understand if the NHC will name or not. I have seen them classify storms in the middle of nowhere when it was clear it would fizzle out soon.

[HURAKAN]

I don't think they will upgrade something that looks like this.

[Ivanhater]

I don't think they will upgrade something that looks like this.

Yes they would. Subtropical depression twenty two from 2005.



Invest 91L

[HURAKAN]

Visible



Water vapor



This is STD 22 when it was upgraded

[Ivanhater]

I don't think that is the image when it was upgraded...Do a google search of STD22 from 2005 and this is what is consistently shown



Regardless, I'm sure we can do a search on many systems that look worse then 91L that have been classified. That is a guarantee. If this meets the criteria to be upgraded if it was threatening land, I personally would like it to be consistent everywhere across the basin. I don't work for the nhc however.

[HURAKAN]

I don't think that is the image when it was upgraded...Do a google search of STD22 from 2005 and this is what is consistently shown



Regardless, I'm sure we can do a search on many systems that look worse then 91L that have been classified. That is a guarantee. If this meets the criteria to be upgraded if it was threatening land, I personally would like it to be consistent everywhere across the basin. I don't work for the nhc however.

This site is much better - http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/hursat ... e=kml#2005

When I say "upgraded" I mean based on the final report - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL232005_Twenty-two.pdf

[Ivanhater]

If they were going to upgrade it would have had to happen today. Latest TWO is a no go.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222131
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
430 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclone1]

Darn. That was almost awesome.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... naked

[HURAKAN]

and poof!

[wxman57]

Yep, it's losing the upper-level support for the convection and now it can't maintain the convection without a warm core over warm water. It's history.

[HURAKAN]

805 AM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 500 NM S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 24N65W MOVING S NEAR 10 KT. THIS IS A DEEP LAYERED
LOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N62W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT NEARLY SURROUNDS THE UPPER LOW
EXCEPT TO THE NE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
E TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 61W-65W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE DRY AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH UNFAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[plasticup]

Yep, completely dead. You can't even see it on the WV floater

[NDG]

Last night's gfs still shows the moisture of 91L to make it to S FL by Monday-Tuesday period, with parts of the S FL east coast possibly getting 1", with some moisture making into central FL also, lets hope so.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAS DIMINISHED...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[plasticup]

Well, that's that. Probably the last excitement we'll have in April

[HURAKAN]

approaching the bahamas

[HURAKAN]

"landfall" ... lol

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2