Global model runs discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#1961 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Apr 19, 2011 4:42 am

Image

72 hour surface forecast
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Global Model Runs

#1962 Postby xironman » Tue Apr 19, 2011 4:57 am

You can see where it is taking shape from the cimss site
Divergence
Image

Convergence
Image[/URL]

Vorticity
Image

And the shear is ripping at 50mph!
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#1963 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:50 am

Miami AFD:

AN INTERESTING PATTERN SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS. A TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS (ALONG APPROX 60W 20-25N). BOTH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP THIS INTO A LOW (SUBTROPICAL?) AND TUCK THIS
FEATURE UNDERNEATH A RIDGE WHICH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE...TAKING THE LOW TOWARDS THE S-SW TOWARDS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS WHILE OPENING UP INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY
MOVING W-NW AND ACROSS SOUTH FL/KEYS LATE MON-EARLY TUE. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK ON A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE SE WIND FLOW BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#1964 Postby Vortex » Tue Apr 19, 2011 7:52 am

Interesting......
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1965 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Apr 20, 2011 4:29 pm

Extreme long range CFS model still likes some NW Caribbean mischief at the end of May

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1966 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:06 pm

GFS showing tropical trouble in the Caribbean in the long range. Probably a phantom storm, but a good indication of the tropics heating up in the not so distant future.

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:

Re: Global Model Runs

#1967 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Apr 22, 2011 3:15 pm

^

That feature has been there on the GFS for several days. Typical GFS as we get closer to May to hint something in that area, IMO.
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1968 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Apr 23, 2011 10:49 am

GFS still on it

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Global Model Runs

#1969 Postby ROCK » Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:06 pm

even at long range this is a good indication of whats to come.....check out the potential out there now....the GOM will be warming up fast with the drought we are in. I think Houston broke the high temp for April of 91F yesterday. Not even May yet.....sheesh..

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1970 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Apr 23, 2011 1:21 pm

Yeah Rock..a sign the tropics are waking up.

12z GFS

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Global Model Runs

#1971 Postby ROCK » Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:05 pm

messy indeed...got a hunch...we might see an early start this season.
0 likes   

User avatar
Sambucol
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:09 pm

Re: Global Model Runs

#1972 Postby Sambucol » Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:11 pm

Temps in Texas have been above average this spring, and we are in a drought. Is there a connection between a drought-ridden spring with above average temps and hurricanes?
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Global Model Runs

#1973 Postby NDG » Sat Apr 23, 2011 9:32 pm

Take the long range GFS with a grain of salt it shows development in the southern Caribbean every year about this time, if we were in the middle of May or later it might had been slightly different, IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1974 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Apr 23, 2011 9:35 pm

NDG wrote:Take the long range GFS with a grain of salt it shows development in the southern Caribbean every year about this time, if we were in the middle of May or later it might had been slightly different, IMO.


Exactly..this is likely not a real storm being advertised. However, when we start seeing the long range models getting active, you know the season is getting real close. Personally, I would not be surprised to see development in late May.
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: Global Model Runs

#1975 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Apr 25, 2011 5:49 pm

18z GFS

Image
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

Re: Global Model Runs

#1976 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:34 pm

Yeah, it is bubbling now. We are already at a water temp of 82 degrees in Tampa. Seems a bit early for that. Also, our rainy season has started already, a full month earlier than normal!
0 likes   
Chrissy & Ligeia
:flag:

Rainband

Re: Global Model Runs

#1977 Postby Rainband » Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:58 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Yeah, it is bubbling now. We are already at a water temp of 82 degrees in Tampa. Seems a bit early for that. Also, our rainy season has started already, a full month earlier than normal!
ominous sign of things to come perhaps??
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Global Model Runs

#1978 Postby tolakram » Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:55 pm

We are nearing the time the GFS will identify the first EPAC system but show it in the southwest Caribbean.
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Global Model Runs

#1979 Postby xironman » Tue May 03, 2011 4:20 am

Not truly tropical, but there is not much going on now anyways. The op Euro develops a massive extra-tropical ocean storm over the North Atlantic and then retrogrades south and west towards the southeast coast and the gulf stream. Another month and a half and maybe a setup for a home brew...

Image

Image
0 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Global Model Runs

#1980 Postby xironman » Tue May 03, 2011 3:02 pm

The Euro now giving the CMC a run for its money in the crazy uncle department
Image
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests