Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011

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CrazyC83
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-27

#41 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:14 am

Wednesday

SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST
GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
ERN U.S. FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS EWD...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE
MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY.

...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST...
YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.


STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW
SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN
VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR
CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF
CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.
THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM --
INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL.


ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER
NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE
APPALACHIANS.

..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1413Z (10:13AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-27

#42 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:15 am

Thursday

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250855
SPC AC 250855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES DAY 4
/THU. 4-28/...THOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS INJECT
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SCENARIO.
A LINEARLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS THE MUCH FASTER
MODEL EVEN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND IN THIS REGARD IT HAS
MOST CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SLOWER ECMWF -- AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LIKEWISE SLOWER NAM --
WOULD KEEP STORMS -- AND THUS MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT --
ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE
OF A THREAT AREA ATTM UNTIL THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME MORE CLEAR.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WELL OFFSHORE DAY 5 /FRI. 4-29/...THE NEXT
UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES AND INDUCING HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. AS THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EWD...A SEVERAL-DAY EPISODE OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD LIKELY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND INTO
THE LATTER STAGES OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS
AGAIN MUCH FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RENDERING DETAILS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION
IMPOSSIBLE TO ASCERTAIN ATTM. THEREFORE...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY
OUTLOOK AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVOLVING SYSTEM.

..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:17 am

I believe this is the first time ever that there has been MDT for all of Days 1, 2 and 3 at the same time. If they could put a risk on Day 4, it would only be a SLGT right now though.
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#44 Postby Bunkertor » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:20 am

448
WFUS54 KSHV 251405
TORSHV
ARC057-099-251430-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0015.110425T1405Z-110425T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
905 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011
Image
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOPE...
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PRESCOTT...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 901 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 10 MILES WEST OF HOPE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PERRYTOWN AND BLEVINS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:35 am

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
915 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 915 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING MCS IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY
AS IT MOVES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND
NORTHERN MS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART
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#46 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 9:49 am

Overall though, I am thinking today will be a zapped-by-convection today. The morning storms are going to make it VERY hard for the air mass to recover.
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#47 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:14 am

Several offices have strongly-worded watches.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

.A FRONT WILL WOBBLE THROUGH ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACK IN OR NEAR THE STATE. THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN. MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE FRONT IS SUBSTANTIAL...
AND THIS WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGH WATER PROBLEMS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

ARZ016-022>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>064-252130-
/O.EXT.KLZK.FF.A.0003.110425T1200Z-110427T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTHEIMER...AMITY...ARKADELPHIA...
AUGUSTA...AVILLA...BATESVILLE...BAUXITE...BEE BRANCH...BEEBE...
BENTON...BISMARCK...BONNERDALE...BOONEVILLE...BRINKLEY...BRYANT...
CABOT...CENTER RIDGE...CLARENDON...CLINTON...CONWAY...
COTTON PLANT...DANVILLE...DARDANELLE...DE VALLS BLUFF...DE WITT...
DES ARC...DONALDSON...DRASCO...EL PASO...ENGLAND...
FAIRFIELD BAY...FORDYCE...FOURCHE JUNCTION...GEORGETOWN...
GILLETT...GLENWOOD...GOULD...GRADY...GRAVELLY...GREENBRIER...
GREERS FERRY...GURDON...HASKELL...HAZEN...HEBER SPRINGS...
HECTOR...HOT SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HUMNOKE...
HUMPHREY...JACKSONVILLE...JESSIEVILLE...KINGSLAND...LEOLA...
LITTLE ROCK...LONOKE...MALVERN...MAUMELLE...MAYFLOWER...MCCRORY...
MENA...MORRILTON...MOUNT IDA...MOUNT MAGAZINE...MURFREESBORO...
NEWPORT...NORMAN...NORTH LITTLE ROCK...OIL TROUGH...OKOLONA...
OLA...PARIS...PARON...PELSOR...PERRYVILLE...PINE BLUFF...
PINE RIDGE...PLEASANT PLAINS...POYEN...PRATTSVILLE...REDFIELD...
RISON...ROSE BUD...RUSSELLVILLE...SEARCY...SHERIDAN...SHERWOOD...
STAR CITY...STUTTGART...SWIFTON...TUCKERMAN...VILONIA...WALDRON...
WICKES...WRIGHTSVILLE...Y CITY
525 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS...EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...CONWAY...FAULKNER...GARLAND...GRANT...LONOKE...
PERRY...POPE...PRAIRIE...PULASKI...SALINE...WHITE AND YELL. IN
EASTERN ARKANSAS...JACKSON...MONROE AND WOODRUFF. IN NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...CLEBURNE...INDEPENDENCE AND VAN BUREN. IN
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...ARKANSAS...CLEVELAND...JEFFERSON AND
LINCOLN. IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLARK...DALLAS...HOT SPRING
AND PIKE. IN WESTERN ARKANSAS...LOGAN...MONTGOMERY...POLK AND
SCOTT.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SERIOUS FLOOD ISSUES
MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS...INCLUDING HIGH WATER RESCUES AND
ROAD CLOSURES.

* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN...AND LOCALLY MORE IN THE WATCH
AREA. RAIN WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
REMEMBER THAT HALF OF ALL FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN
AUTOMOBILES. IF YOU ARE DRIVING AND ENCOUNTER A WATER COVERED
ROAD...STOP. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&

$$
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:14 am

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
454 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-252100-
/O.EXT.KPAH.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-110428T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
454 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ALEXANDER...EDWARDS...
FRANKLIN...GALLATIN...HAMILTON...HARDIN...JACKSON...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...MASSAC...PERRY IL...POPE...PULASKI...
SALINE...UNION IL...WABASH...WAYNE IL...WHITE AND WILLIAMSON.
IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...GIBSON...PIKE...POSEY...SPENCER...
VANDERBURGH AND WARRICK. IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...BALLARD...
CALDWELL...CALLOWAY...CARLISLE...CHRISTIAN...CRITTENDEN...
DAVIESS...FULTON...GRAVES...HENDERSON...HICKMAN...HOPKINS...
LIVINGSTON...LYON...MARSHALL...MCCRACKEN...MCLEAN...
MUHLENBERG...TODD...TRIGG...UNION KY AND WEBSTER. IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...BOLLINGER...BUTLER...CAPE GIRARDEAU...CARTER...
MISSISSIPPI...NEW MADRID...PERRY MO...RIPLEY...SCOTT...
STODDARD AND WAYNE MO.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MANY
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS...INCLUDING WATER IN HOMES AND SOME
RESCUES HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND. AREAS
AROUND POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI HAVE BEEN HIT ESPECIALLY HARD.

* PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
5 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.


* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE REGION WILL BECOME FLOODED OR IMPASSABLE...AND MAY
POSSIBLY EVEN BE WASHED AWAY. SOME HOMES WILL BE INUNDATED OR
BECOME ISOLATED BY HIGH WATER. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. MANY RIVERS IN FLOOD WILL TEST HISTORICAL RECORDS IN
THE COMING WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:16 am

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...


.A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO KENTUCKY TODAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN EXTREME RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST STALLING FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TO ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEWLY STALLED
BOUNDARY AND SET OFF ADDITIONAL TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT HEAVY
RAINFALL.

ARZ008-009-017-018-MOZ113-115-TNZ001-002-251900-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-110428T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...KENNETT...
CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY
548 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST ARKANSAS...
CLAY...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN WEST TENNESSEE...LAKE AND OBION.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THIS...IN COMBINATION OF THE 4 TO 8
INCHES THAT HAVE ALREADY FALLEN MAY LEAD TO TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:53 am

PDS perhaps? although I think the air mass has stabilized too much...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO
SOUTHERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251546Z - 251645Z

A SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN OK INCLUDING AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF I-35. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

WHILE LOW LEVEL COVER CONTINUES TO REMAIN AND HINDER SURFACE HEATING
TO A DEGREE...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH WAS
ALREADY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE INHIBITION. AIDED BY A PROMINENT
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT ADVANCING COLD
FRONT/MODESTLY EASTWARD0ACCELERATING DRYLINE...FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR...INITIAL
MODAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES ARE PROBABLE
ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE PRE-COLD FRONTAL/DRYLINE
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME A CONSIDERABLE
CONCERN AS WELL AS STORMS CONGEAL/INCREASE ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2011


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31599798 33239740 34949652 35049504 33919346 32029343
30599626 31599798
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#51 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:55 am

^
Potent upper level jet streak @ 500mb approaching that area from the W. There is the trigger as well as left over boundaries, IMO.
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#52 Postby GCANE » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:02 am

Looks like the cap has broken and convection has begun to fire.

IMHO the 12Z Hodo from DFW didn't show a big potential for large twisters.

However, there is a strong STP in the region.

Image

Image

Image
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#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:03 am

Just waiting on details on the watch. It might be a PDS, it might not.
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Re:

#54 Postby Bunkertor » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:03 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Overall though, I am thinking today will be a zapped-by-convection today. The morning storms are going to make it VERY hard for the air mass to recover.


But the offices saw the MCS when they launched the update...
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:04 am

Probs are 60/40. Agreed on holding it back some, I am a bit skeptical on the tornadic threat.

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CORSICANA TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 199...WW 200...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER NORTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHEAST OK AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE...WITH ONLY
A WEAK CAP. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR...COMBINED WITH PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.


...HART
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:07 am

I think we will have to get used to these, sadly. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!!!

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MOC023-251830-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0031.110425T1432Z-110425T1830Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
932 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER IN BUTLER COUNTY
MISSOURI

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 927 AM CDT...THE FAILURE OF A LEVEE ON THE BLACK RIVER WAS
REPORTED BY BUTLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THE LOCATION OF THE
LEVEE FAILURE WAS NEAR COUNTY ROAD 607 SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR
BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE...
ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9058 3668 9060 3669 9063 3681 9063
3682 9067 3692 9068 3693 9067 3692 9026
3687 9026 3685 9022 3678 9021 3668 9015
3663 9015 3660 9019 3655 9019 3650 9023

$$
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:22 am

One thought: with the Mississippi rising so high, if it maintains itself, could it cause a Katrina-like flood in New Orleans?
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#58 Postby Bunkertor » Mon Apr 25, 2011 11:29 am

Cells shooting up like hell, now
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Re:

#59 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Overall though, I am thinking today will be a zapped-by-convection today. The morning storms are going to make it VERY hard for the air mass to recover.


I was thinking the same thing...but convection is really starting to fire in central Oklahoma along the boundary. Those storms might go supercell...
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Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28

#60 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Apr 25, 2011 1:19 pm

Cells south of FW and between Waco and Austin might be prime too...
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