Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011

[brunota2003]

I don't know about you guys, but the events of the last few weeks have been more personal for me because they've been impacting areas near and dear to me...just sayin.

[psyclone]

severe weather by its very nature is local. for those inclined to post strongly worded warnings during outbreaks...post away. obviously, some discretion is warranted when there are tons of warnings. i don't need a svr for quarter sized hail. but a strongly worded tor, a tornado emergency or a flash flood warning for a dam or levee failure...yeah that belongs here imo.

[Texas Snowman]

[quote="fact789]THANK YOU!!! The situation tonight and over the last few weeks has been a lot more of a personal focus rather than a meteorological/NWS focus, but you would never know that by looking at this thread. <rant over> [/quote]



The first poster was questioning why the localized warnings.

But you are questioning personal focus rather than meterological/NWS focus?

Isn't the discussion and/or reporting of localized warnings for tornadoes, severe flooding, etc. an NWS focus?

I for one like the fact that some of our long time members post such warnings and information (i.e. during the Carolina tornado outbreak).

Another example was the Greensburg tornado in Kansas several years back. Fascinating night of weather and weather discussion.

And if a Cat 4 threatens the Florida Panhandle this summer, I'll be glued to the meterological discussion, the science, and the "personal" reports of people who live in those areas.

Now back to regular programming...

[Florida1118]

Why are we posting each individual warning instead of a general, overall discussion?

Warnings are very localized and the audience here is global.

THANK YOU!!!

The situation tonight and over the last few weeks has been a lot more of a personal focus rather than a meteorological/NWS focus, but you would never know that by looking at this thread. <rant over>

I hope everyone in Arkansas is alright. 4-15+" of rain last week on top of this tornado will make for a long cleanup.

Well Ive always posted warnings for documentation as the NWS doesn't keep the warnings up for very long. And, This thread is very specific, so its not like its clogging anything up, and I think for anyone who wanted to refer back to the warnings they can go back to the thread and see the official warnings, not a random person talking about flooding. Ive always thought the Severe Threads were for discussion and posting the warnings, not singly discussion.

[psyclone]

the apex of that huge, derecho-esque bow is advancing right down I-40 in western tn. that looks really wicked with some tree and truck tipping potential at the very least.

[Texas Snowman]

Vilonia, Ark. tornado news continues to come in:


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/ ... JJ20110426

"In Vilonia, Arkansas, a town of some 3,000 people north of Little Rock, one death was confirmed and between 50 to 80 houses were destroyed by a tornado, according to Faulkner County emergency management. Police reported a path of destruction half a mile wide."

[CrazyC83]

Hearing also in Vilonia that pavement was scoured from roadways. Some speculate an EF4 or EF5 rating on that basis alone, but there is nothing in the EF scale for roadways.

[Brent]

Someone got pics from Vilonia

http://plixi.com/p/96051186

[TwisterFanatic]

Bart Comstock tweeted 30 minutes ago that the Vilonia fire chief said there are 50-60 people still missing at this hour.

Also earlier there were Unconfirmed Reports that the Vilonia PD says the "Town is gone".

This http://twitpic.com/4pmcz5 is also going around on Twitter. It is supposedly the actual Tornado.


Also, a sad tweet from a person I do not know.

"my cousin is trapped in a house in Vilonia. He has a broken leg, and it is so flooded, they can't get to him. #scared"

http://twitter.com/Tink801

Jim Cantore is responding to her. She also said her Aunt's ranch is gone along with two other cousin's homes. She can't help as she is in Florida.

[TwisterFanatic]

Check out this amazing 3D Velocity of the storm.

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid= ... =1&theater

[WeatherGuesser]

Hearing also in Vilonia that pavement was scoured from roadways.

If it was blacktop, it wouldn't take a whole lot considering how much rain there's been. The underbed would probably have been weakened. If it was concrete, that would be a different story.

One news report claims 50-60 people unaccounted for. Probably just out of contact for now.

[HurricaneBill]

Arkansas has never had an official F5 tornado. However, the 1929 Sneed tornado was possibly an F5.

[Texas Snowman]

I sincerely hope and pray that these people unaccounted for are just out of contact.

And I sincerely hope and pray that the details of this AP news report are exaggerated. If not...morning will have a sad tale to tell.

http://www.abc24.com/content/regional/s ... 9sJKw.cspx


VILONIA, Ark. (AP) - Officials say two people have died in Arkansas after severe storms battered the state.

Faulkner County spokesman Stephan Hawks says one person died in the central Arkansas town of Vilonia, where a path of damage stretches three miles wide and 15 miles long. It wasn't immediately clear how the person died.

Authorities have closed off the roadways leading into Vilonia, which residents say all but disappeared in the storms.

Several residents told The Associated Press that the storms damaged homes and business within the city limits. Hawks says nearby creeks are flooding their banks.

[Brent]

...A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN
TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...

WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK
TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

[TwisterFanatic]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/SERN OK ACROSS MUCH
OF AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX/ERN OK NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO PA AND NY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...NOSING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY 00Z WED. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER NWRN TX DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A TRAILING
DRYLINE MOVING EWD TO AROUND I-35 IN TX BY 00Z. E OF THE DRYLINE...A
RELATIVELY WIDE WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F EWD TO THE MS RIVER. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM NWRN TX AT 00Z
INTO AR BY 12Z WED...AND THIS IS WHERE FORCING/LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED.
THE PRIMARY ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING STRONG
TORNADOES WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN TX/SERN
OK...AND WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AR...EXTREME NRN
LA...AND INTO NRN MS/WRN TX BY WED MORNING.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AS A LEAD UPPER SHORTAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD.

...A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN
TX/SERN OK EWD ACROSS AR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...

...NERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO AR...LA...MS...WRN TN...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH MUCAPE
2000-3000 J/KG E OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS TX/OK BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

CAPPING WILL BE BREACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER NERN
TX/SERN OK ...WITH SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY
LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN SOME FORM EWD WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF AR...FAR NRN LA AND INTO NWRN MS AND WRN
TN. INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS ARE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE...BUT WITH
TIME...EXTREMELY STRONG BOWS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHTLINE
WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE AS WELL..ESPECIALLY LATE NIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO.

THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO COVERAGE
SINCE LATE INITIATION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND CAPPING WILL PLAY
A ROLE WITH SWD EXTENT. WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK
TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

...AR/NRN MS/WRN TN EARLY/MIDDAY...
WARM ADVECTION NWD INTO AR/MS/TN...ATOP RESIDUAL COOL OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION...MAY HELP INITIATE AREAS OF STORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
LATER...WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

...TN/OH VALLEYS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL AND WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NWD WILL HELP
FUELS STORMS IN THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND WIND LIKELY. SHEAR APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 04/26/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z




Almost the exact same areas as today/yesterday. Not good. Except Oklahoma get could more in the way of Tornadic activity as they won't have the early morning rain to cut down on instability.

[GCANE]

Classic Texas Hooker

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

SPC just raised risk to high today

[GCANE]

Strong jet over DFW this morning.

[apocalypt-flyer]

The Vilonia tornado looked like a BEAST. Awful awful news for the town.

At today looks like it's gonna be another really dangerous day, too. Fort Worth/Dallas just at the edge of the HIGH/MDT area as well.