2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[Tireman4]

A trace here, that is it. Just a trace. Humm

[CajunMama]

2.14" of unexpected rain!!!!!!!!!! I like it

[vbhoutex]

2.14" of unexpected rain!!!!!!!!!! I like it

Don't get me wrong, I am happy for my friends to the East, but at least you could share!!

[Flyinman]

Waited waited waited for things to develop to the NW and move in our direction. Low and behold it went East and moves SE. Wow, seems like a broken record.

[jasons2k]

I got maybe a trace. There was a wildfire last weekend behind the back of my neighborhood - pretty crazy stuff:

http://www.woodlandsonline.com/npps/sto ... page=41349

[jasons2k]

Very close to Houston Metro:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0592.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND TX HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262001Z - 262130Z

MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO
WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX AND THE TX
HILL COUNTRY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD
IN VICINITY OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY DRYLINE. THE EXACT
COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG EML...BUT AT LEAST
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE REGION.
ALONG THESE LINES...AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUCH AS
THE 12Z ECMWF AND VARIOUS 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP...IMPLY THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE AUSTIN-SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY.
WHERE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND STRONG INSTABILITY /3000-4000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COUPLED WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES.

[CajunMama]

My gosh. I'm watching live video from alabama. I am sooooo thankful for the cap on the atmosphere here. I'll take my dry weather over those horrific tornadoes any day.

[LSU2001]

Hey Mama,
Down the Bayou it is so dry the gators are out roaming around looking for water. Almost hit one the other day going to Houma. Anyway, I am with you I will take drought over Tornadoes any day.
Tim

[CajunMama]

Hey lshwho!!! How are ya? I dated a guy from Cut Off when i was in college. Boy did he have an accent!

[Flyinman]

I am liking what I am seeing. However, the last few weeks have not come true for this area. Maybe we will get lucky this time:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

[PTrackerLA]

What a change in the weather! Fell asleep to a lightning show and woke up to the low 50's, light rain and breezy conditions! Looks like we received 1.06" rain so far, we'll take it!

[vbhoutex]

What a change in the weather! Fell asleep to a lightning show and woke up to the low 50's, light rain and breezy conditions! Looks like we received 1.06" rain so far, we'll take it!

LUCKY DOG!! Still DRY AS A BONE here in Houston. NOT A DROP!!!

[Tireman4]

Very windy and cool. I love it. Woo Hoo. This weekend it will be steamy...Sigh..

[southerngale]

Brrr.... got down to 42° this morning! Quite cold for May 4th!

Officially, it reached 45° down at the airport, which tied the record set in 1945.

[vbhoutex]

48f here, still very cool for May in SE TX. 19 days without rain and counting and we only had 0.15" last month.

[vbhoutex]

Ok this is getting RIDICULOUS!!!!! We have had not a drop of rain in 24 days here at the house and less than an inch in the last 60 days!!! High temperature so far at the house 94F!! And now the latest from Jeff. He is just full of good news!!

Hot, dry, and windy will be the theme again this week

Upper level ridge has built northward from Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend returning increasing temperatures and humidity to the region. Highs yesterday rose into the low to mid 90’s over the area and this will continue each day this week. Compressional heating off the higher terrain of NE Mexico pushed afternoon highs into the low to mid 100’s across the Rio Grande plains NNE into north central TX.

With ridge and strong capping in place there is just no hope for any rainfall. Incoming weak front on Thursday/Friday may get close enough to produce a few isolated thunderstorms, but how many times have we seen this spring fronts near us and produce nothing! In fact the GFS models only shows a decent chance of rain around May 20th and nothing before or after.
Winds will be gusty this week with lower pressures over the plains and this will help with the drying of the surface layer and vegetation.

Drought:

Incredible drought of 2011 continues with rainfall deficits for this year alone now approaching 8-11 inches over the area and since October of 2010 when this drought started 10-18 inches. Nearly ½ of SE TX is now in exceptional drought status the worst on the Palmer Drought Index and all of our counties are either in severe or extreme drought. Vegetation health is starting to greatly suffer with unirrigated fields turning brown and grasses starting to die. Hobby Airport has not recorded rainfall in 52 days a counting record now. Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Calhoun, Fort Bend, and Colorado counties have failed to receive an inch of rainfall in the last 3 months. The 1.58 inches of rainfall at BUSH IAH since Feb 1st is only 15% of that periods normal rainfall and at Danevang in Wharton County the .69 for the same period is only 7.8%. At Victoria the current rainfall deficit from October 1, 2011 to current is 13.18 inches. For April only .03 of an inch of rain fell at Victoria.

So how does it END?

We are moving into the time of year where cold fronts will become less and less frequent and so far this spring they have been infrequent already. Without any kind of boundary there is little focus for rainfall development and with the winds howling each day the seabreeze boundary which helps produce are typical summer thunderstorms is unable to develop. Instead of looking to the north for rain…we will likely have to look toward the tropics and the upcoming 2011 hurricane season. On record Texas spring and summer droughts are almost always broken by tropical systems. The main question is if we can get an early season tropical storm in June to produce much needed rainfall…or are we going to have to suffered until August or September and then be faced with a significant hurricane threat. At this point the only weather feature that will likely be strong enough to upset to stagnant and blocked upper air pattern is a tropical system and that is about the only way we are going to get widespread wetting rains, but does it come at a big price?

[MGC]

If the GFS is correct there might be some relief in sight. It has been quite dry here on the MGC. Last few shots of rain have fizzled.....been watering the lawn for a couple of weeks now. Hopefully the GFS is sniffing out a pattern change in about a week or so. East coast trough with some cold air aloft. Might start seeing the summertime pattern of afternoon convection if that happens......MGC

[Jagno]

This was posted this evening showing a potential rainmaker for your area. P.S.-Remember to share the love when you get some of the wet stuff.
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... 30_prt.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like some much needed rain is possible through midday Saturday according to the GFS. Let's all cross our fingers!

[jasons2k]

I think I'll finally get some rain out of this - I'll be watching closely over the next few days.