Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011

[Bunkertor]

Bust risk ?

[CrazyC83]

Bust risk ?

It will take a while to figure out. Threat likely late afternoon and evening.

[Bunkertor]

The area concerned seems to be cloudy

[RL3AO]

Bust risk ?

Its noon.

[CrazyC83]

000
ASUS44 KLZK 261705
RWRLZK

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR ARKANSAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

ARZ001-003-010-029-261800-
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
FAYETTEVILLE CLOUDY 54 49 83 S6 29.67R
FORT SMITH PTSUNNY 61 49 64 CALM 29.67S
HARRISON MOSUNNY 62 51 67 VRB3 29.64R
BENTONVILLE CLOUDY 54 46 76 CALM 29.64S
SILOAM SPGS PTSUNNY 54 46 76 S3 29.68R
HIGHFILL CLOUDY 53 46 77 W5 29.66R
SPRINGDALE PTSUNNY 54 45 71 S5 29.67R
$$

ARZ004-005-016-261800-
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BATESVILLE PTSUNNY 68 59 73 SW5 29.64F
FLIPPIN MOSUNNY 66 54 63 SW7 29.63S
MTN HOME MOSUNNY 66 54 65 SW7 29.62S
$$

ARZ040-041-261800-
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MENA MOSUNNY 70 59 68 CALM 29.65F
MOUNT IDA CLOUDY 65 59 81 NW3 29.63S
$$

ARZ009-017-025-026-028-261800-
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CORNING N/A 66 63 88 SW16 29.63S
JONESBORO CLOUDY 70 63 78 SW14 29.64S
WALNUT RIDGE CLOUDY 66 59 77 SW14 29.64S
BLYTHEVILLE CLOUDY 73 65 75 S17G25 29.64S
NW BLYTHEVILLE PTSUNNY 73 64 73 SW16 29.64S
$$

ARZ022-023-033-042-044-261800-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LITTLE ROCK CLOUDY 67 63 87 CALM 29.65F
N LITTLE ROCK CLOUDY 66 63 90 S3 29.65F
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 66 61 84 CALM 29.65F
SEARCY CLOUDY 66 61 84 CALM 29.66F
HOT SPRINGS N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.65S
RUSSELLVILLE PTSUNNY 66 55 67 VRB3 29.66S
CLINTON FAIR 68 55 64 SW8 29.65F
$$

ARZ036-261800-
EAST ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WEST MEMPHIS PTSUNNY 74 67 78 S18G24 29.64F
$$

ARZ050-053-066-070-073-261800-
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TEXARKANA CLOUDY 66 65 96 NE5 29.62F FOG
EL DORADO MOSUNNY 77 68 73 S13G18 29.64F
DEQUEEN CLOUDY 65 60 84 E7 29.63R
$$

ARZ056-057-069-261800-
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PINE BLUFF CLOUDY 75 68 78 S12 29.64F
STUTTGART CLOUDY 73 66 78 S9 29.65F
MONTICELLO MOSUNNY 77 67 71 SW13 29.66F

$$

[CrazyC83]

000
ASUS44 KFWD 261615
RWRTX
NORTH TEXAS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

TXZ118-119-261700-
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DFW AIRPORT CLOUDY 63 54 72 NE10 29.58F
DALLAS LOVE CLOUDY 63 54 72 NE10 29.58F
FTW MEACHAM CLOUDY 61 52 72 NE6 29.59R
DAL-EXECUTIVE CLOUDY 63 56 78 NE10 29.58F
FTW-ALLIANCE CLOUDY 65 49 55 NE8 29.59S
FTW-NAS-JRB CLOUDY 63 51 65 NE6 29.64S
FTW-SPINKS CLOUDY 63 57 82 NE7 29.60S
ARLINGTON CLOUDY 63 57 81 NE10 29.57F
GRAND PRAIRIE CLOUDY 64 55 72 NE9 29.60F
ADDISON CLOUDY 61 54 77 NE14 29.59F
MESQUITE CLOUDY 61 54 77 NE7 29.62F
LANCASTER CLOUDY 63 59 88 E7 29.58F
$$

TXZ091>094-102>105-117-120-121-131>134-261700-
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SHRMAN/DENISON PTSUNNY 61 50 67 N9 29.63F
GAINESVILLE PTSUNNY 61 46 59 NE10 29.63F
BOWIE MOSUNNY 63 46 55 NE6 29.59F
BRIDGEPORT CLOUDY 61 50 67 E9 29.62S
DECATUR PTSUNNY 59 46 63 NE12 29.60F
DENTON CLOUDY 60 53 77 N12 29.61S
MCKINNEY CLOUDY 60 53 77 NE7 29.60F
GREENVILLE CLOUDY 61 55 82 N7 29.63R
TERRELL CLOUDY 63 57 81 NE10 29.60S
WAXAHACHIE CLOUDY 63 57 82 NE7 29.58F HAZE
CLEBURNE CLOUDY 64 63 94 NE8 29.59S
GRANBURY CLOUDY 64 57 77 NE5 29.59F
$$

TXZ083>090-098>101-113>116-127>130-139>142-154-155-261700-
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WICHITA FALLS PTSUNNY 61 44 53 E14 29.59F
WF-KICKAPOO MOSUNNY 63 43 48 NE12 29.60F
VERNON MOSUNNY 62 42 47 E10 29.60S
ABILENE SUNNY 67 57 70 CALM 29.56F
ABILENE-DYESS SUNNY 66 56 71 E7 29.56F
BRECKENRIDGE MOSUNNY 66 54 63 SE7 29.58S
GRAHAM SUNNY 63 46 55 E6 29.57S
MINERAL WELLS CLOUDY 63 51 65 E12 29.57F
STEPHENVILLE CLOUDY 64 59 82 E6 29.60F
COMANCHE N/A 70 61 73 E5 29.58F
BROWNWOOD SUNNY 77 54 44 S8 29.55F
COLEMAN SUNNY 76 49 39 SW9 29.56F
$$

TXZ143>147-156>162-174-175-261700-
CENTRAL TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
WACO MOSUNNY 82 70 65 S16 29.54F
WACO-TSTC MOSUNNY 81 68 65 S15 29.54F
WACO-MCGREGOR MOSUNNY 82 68 61 S18 29.55F
HILLSBORO PTSUNNY 72 66 83 CALM 29.55F HAZE
CORSICANA MOSUNNY 79 72 78 S10 29.56F
HEARNE CLOUDY 79 70 73 S12 29.58F
TEMPLE CLOUDY 82 68 61 S22 29.55F
KILLEEN-GRAY MOSUNNY 84 68 58 S12 29.55F
KILLEEN-SKYLRK MOSUNNY 82 68 61 SE14G21 29.54F
FORT HOOD MOSUNNY 85 71 63 SE13 29.55F HX 90
GATESVILLE SUNNY 79 66 65 S9 29.58F
HAMILTON SUNNY 76 60 56 S9 29.55F
LAMPASAS SUNNY 79 64 61 E8 29.55F
$$

TXZ095>097-106>112-122>126-135>138-148>153-164>167-261700-
EAST TEXAS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PARIS CLOUDY 61 55 82 NE5 29.64R
SULPHUR SPRNGS CLOUDY 61 55 82 NE6 29.65R
CLARKSVILLE PTSUNNY 64 59 82 CALM 29.63S
MOUNT PLEASANT CLOUDY 64 61 88 CALM 29.64R
GILMER CLOUDY 72 68 88 CALM 29.62S FOG
MINEOLA CLOUDY 66 64 94 MISG 29.61F
TYLER CLOUDY 74 69 85 SE9 29.61S HAZE
LONGVIEW CLOUDY 77 69 76 S16 29.61F
PALESTINE CLOUDY 77 72 83 SE8 29.60F HAZE
JACKSONVILLE CLOUDY 70 68 94 SE10 29.64S FOG
HENDERSON CLOUDY 73 66 78 S14G20 29.62S
NACOGDOCHES CLOUDY 72 68 88 S13 29.65S
LUFKIN CLOUDY 73 70 90 SE12 29.65S
$$

SUPPLEMENTAL OBSERVATIONS (CENTRAL)

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ATHENS N/A 75 70 83 SE10 N/A
CADDO GRASSLND N/A 61 54 77 NE5 N/A
CEDAR HILL N/A 64 55 72 NE9 N/A
GREENVILLE N/A 63 57 82 NE9 N/A
LAKE LIMESTONE N/A 84 68 58 S16 N/A
LAKE TEXOMA N/A 57 45 62 NE8 N/A
MCGREGOR N/A 82 68 61 S18 N/A
PALESTINE N/A 75 72 88 S9 N/A
PAT MAYSE LAKE N/A 59 54 82 NE5 N/A
TEMPLE N/A 81 68 65 S18 N/A
$$

SUPPLEMENTAL OBSERVATIONS (WEST)

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLORADO BEND N/A 84 57 39 S9 N/A
COMANCHE N/A 72 61 68 E10 N/A
GRANBURY N/A 64 55 72 NE10 N/A
HAMBY N/A 64 55 72 E12 N/A
IVIE RESERVOIR N/A 82 52 34 SW12 N/A
LBJ GRASSLAND N/A 63 50 63 NE6 N/A
MILLERS CREEK N/A 64 48 55 E9 N/A
POSSUM KINGDOM N/A 63 50 63 NE9 N/A
$$

SUPPLEMENTAL OBSERVATIONS (EAST)

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CADDO LAKE N/A 81 70 69 S7G15 N/A
CLARKSVILLE N/A 64 59 82 NE6 N/A
GILMER N/A 72 66 83 NE3 N/A
HENDERSON N/A 73 66 78 S12 N/A
LINDEN N/A 70 66 88 E3 N/A
LUFKIN N/A 72 66 83 S6 N/A
N SABINE NF N/A 73 66 78 MISG N/A
S SABINE NF N/A 75 70 83 SE14G22 N/A
TEXARKANA N/A 68 64 88 SE5 N/A
$$

SUPPLEMENTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE A COLLECTION OF AUTOMATED INSTRUMENTS
THAT ARE MAINTAINED BY A VARIETY OF FEDERAL AND STATE AGENCIES.
CERTAIN ELEMENTS...SUCH AS HUMIDITY VALUES AND SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS...MAY BE ESTIMATED.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...UPPER
MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261718Z - 261815Z

TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 19Z IS 80
PERCENT.

WITHIN A BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...A COUPLE OF N/S CONFLUENT AXES
HAVE FOSTERED DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN NY TO CNTRL PA AND
ACROSS THE NRN WV PANHANDLE INTO SWRN PA. MORNING RUNS OF THE
HRRR/WRF-NMM AND 00Z WRF-NSSL ALL SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED HEATING LEADS TO WEAK/MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER GREAT LAKES
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN 35 TO 45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
LIKELY...PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39877731 39077856 38877997 39328086 40598040 42627860
43377648 43417539 43127457 42847451 42447473 40857633
39877731

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261726Z - 261900Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN OH. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.

AS THE BRUNT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDDAY SURFACE
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. ALONG/EAST OF A COLD FRONT AMID A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IL INTO
MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE MODEST
CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH UPPER 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD FAST NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 39028813 40498840 41428708 42508592 43338535 42958335
41298337 38988492 39028813

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 1730Z update. High risk for tomorrow too?

[CrazyC83]

WHOA, I have to drive into the Moderate Risk tomorrow!

SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WEST
VIRGINIA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S...WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO TAKE
ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT...AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
LIFTS OUT OF ITS BASE...AND GRADUALLY PIVOTS AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF A SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEAST OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PROBABLY WILL
INCLUDE A 90-100 KT 500 MB JET CORE NOSING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS
CYCLOGENESIS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION
...WHICH COULD BE EXTENSIVE AND ONGOING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD BE IN PROGRESS WEDNESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHAT INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK PROBABILITIES
AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER INDICATIONS ARE STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE THAT A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES...AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

...EASTERN U.S...
IN AREAS NOT IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...AND PERHAPS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG WITH SURFACE HEATING. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A BROAD 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC SUPERCELL THREAT COULD BE
ONGOING OR RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WESTERN/MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
LARGELY CONTINGENT ON EVOLUTION OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. IF AN
LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AN
EXPANSIVE SURFACE COLD POOL COULD SLOW DESTABILIZATION AND MITIGATE
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON TO
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AND
THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...IN THE WARM SECTOR
...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW. AS THIS FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE COULD
OCCUR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SPREADING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 04/26/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1736Z (1:36PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[GCANE]

RUC 22Z at DFW.

I would think you would just have to spit in the air in Dallas and it would set off a supercell.

[RL3AO]

Wow. Those are some impressive lapse rates.

Also, that is a huge MDT area for tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Impressive Hodo south AR from RUC at 22Z

[TwisterFanatic]

Is it just me or is the RUC going farther north with the Warm Front than the SPC anticipates?

[GCANE]

Is it just me or is the RUC going farther north with the Warm Front than the SPC anticipates?

I think your right.

[GCANE]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261726Z - 261900Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN IL INTO MUCH OF INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN OH. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.

AS THE BRUNT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDDAY SURFACE
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. ALONG/EAST OF A COLD FRONT AMID A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IL INTO
MUCH OF INDIANA/WESTERN OH AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE MODEST
CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH UPPER 50S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL YIELD FAST NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ONTARIO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF UTICA NEW YORK TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
LATROBE PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF BROKEN CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
TWO PRIMARY ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
UPSTATE NY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.


...DARROW

[badger70]

HWOSHV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-271100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VIOLENT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

[CrazyC83]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN MARYLAND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN VIRGINIA
MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST
OF DUBLIN VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA IN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK
ASCENT. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL WINDS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...HART

[CrazyC83]

PDS Tornado Watch coming, probably with very high numbers like 95/90.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261811Z - 262015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR. A RELATIVELY LONG LEAD
TIME/DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...EAST OF A NEAR I-35 CENTRAL TX
DRYLINE...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW NORTHWARD-RETURNING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH DFW
METRO INTO SOUTHERN AR...HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE CINH. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MIDDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH
LIKELY-ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXED CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING LARGE
HAIL/TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHEAST OK.

..GUYER.. 04/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31739772 32889727 34059625 34489432 34559322 34019166
32609213 31619336 30579640 31739772