MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...PORTIONS OF NRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 219...
VALID 270135Z - 270230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 219 CONTINUES.
SVR THREAT ACROSS SRN IND AND FAR NRN KY REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL
ATTM...AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SFC FLOW
RATHER WEAK. WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVERHEAD...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER MUCH OF THE
WW AREA /WITH EXCEPTION TO LEFT SPLITTING STORM THAT MOVED N ACROSS
THE AREA...AND RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL NEAR THE OH RIVER VALLEY NOW
OVER N-CNTRL KY/. CONVECTION S OF THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS /INCLUDING WRF-NMM AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR GUIDANCE/...WHICH INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD NEAR 03Z NEAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH
AREA...WITH ACCOMPANYING SVR AND/OR TOR POTENTIAL POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WW LATER TONIGHT.
..ROGERS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 37728847 40148725 40098445 37698578 37728847
Historic Multi Day Tornado/Flooding Event 4/23-28/2011
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
Estimated echo tops of 62000 feet:
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN AR...NWRN MS...WRN-MIDDLE TN...WRN
KY...EXTREME SERN MO....EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 217...221...
VALID 270213Z - 270315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 217...221...CONTINUES.
PER COORD W/OHX WFO...A FEW MORE COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO WW 217
AHEAD OF MCS MOVING ENEWD OUT OF NRN MS/WRN TN...FOR NEAR-TERM
COVERAGE. THIS WW ULTIMATELY WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 03Z
EXPIRATION...GIVEN THAT SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION WELL INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. THREAT
INCLUDES TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND. DAMAGING HAIL ALSO IS
STILL POSSIBLE FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.
BOW ECHO ORGANIZING ACROSS NRN AR SHOULD PERSIST WELL NEWD OVER SERN
MO TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY ALONG AND S
OF INSTABILITY/BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE.
NRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED STRONGLY ORTHOGONAL TO
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND VECTORS...AND AS SUCH...BEARS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED WIND EVENT. QLCS CIRCULATIONS
ALSO MAY RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES. SE OF THAT BOW AND TRAILING
SQUALL LINE...SUPERCELLS AND SMALLER BOWS MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE WITHIN BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND TSTMS THAT IS EVIDENT
ACROSS ERN AR NEWD OVER WRN KY. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS REDUCED
BUOYANCY...POCKETS OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY REMAIN...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC-BASED PARCELS AND 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z OVER PORTIONS AR..AS
WELL AS WRN/CENTRAL KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN AWAY FROM ONGOING MCS.
500-MB HEIGHT FALLS...ANALYZED AT 00Z JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER OK
AND N TX...WILL PIVOT OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE LLJ MAINTAINS LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 33109207 34999207 34499372 35329211 36039183 36459190
36799016 37838907 38408711 37658698 36498721 34938894
33109207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN AR...NWRN MS...WRN-MIDDLE TN...WRN
KY...EXTREME SERN MO....EXTREME SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN INDIANA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 217...221...
VALID 270213Z - 270315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 217...221...CONTINUES.
PER COORD W/OHX WFO...A FEW MORE COUNTIES ARE BEING ADDED TO WW 217
AHEAD OF MCS MOVING ENEWD OUT OF NRN MS/WRN TN...FOR NEAR-TERM
COVERAGE. THIS WW ULTIMATELY WILL BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 03Z
EXPIRATION...GIVEN THAT SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION WELL INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. THREAT
INCLUDES TORNADOES AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND. DAMAGING HAIL ALSO IS
STILL POSSIBLE FROM INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS.
BOW ECHO ORGANIZING ACROSS NRN AR SHOULD PERSIST WELL NEWD OVER SERN
MO TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY ALONG AND S
OF INSTABILITY/BAROCLINIC GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE.
NRN PORTION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALIGNED STRONGLY ORTHOGONAL TO
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND VECTORS...AND AS SUCH...BEARS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED WIND EVENT. QLCS CIRCULATIONS
ALSO MAY RESULT IN A FEW TORNADOES. SE OF THAT BOW AND TRAILING
SQUALL LINE...SUPERCELLS AND SMALLER BOWS MAY DEVELOP VIRTUALLY
ANYWHERE WITHIN BROAD AREA OF PRECIP AND TSTMS THAT IS EVIDENT
ACROSS ERN AR NEWD OVER WRN KY. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS REDUCED
BUOYANCY...POCKETS OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY REMAIN...BASED ON
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. SFC-BASED PARCELS AND 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z OVER PORTIONS AR..AS
WELL AS WRN/CENTRAL KY AND WRN/MIDDLE TN AWAY FROM ONGOING MCS.
500-MB HEIGHT FALLS...ANALYZED AT 00Z JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER OK
AND N TX...WILL PIVOT OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS ALOFT. THEREFORE...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE LLJ MAINTAINS LARGE HODOGRAPHS.
..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 33109207 34999207 34499372 35329211 36039183 36459190
36799016 37838907 38408711 37658698 36498721 34938894
33109207
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
So is the tornado outbreak pretty much winding down?
Edit: Looks like the answer is "far from it".
Edit: Looks like the answer is "far from it".
Last edited by HurricaneBill on Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
Overnight PDS threat. OUCH! Be careful!!! Probs are 95/70.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 217...WW
218...WW 219...WW 220...WW 221...
DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THRU THE NIGHT. WITH VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES
AOA 2500 J/KG LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TUPELO
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 217...WW
218...WW 219...WW 220...WW 221...
DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THRU THE NIGHT. WITH VERY STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES
AOA 2500 J/KG LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...DAMAGING TORNADOS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
AUSTIN TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 220. WATCH NUMBER 220 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
945 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW
221...WW 222...
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AS EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVE
EWD. CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD...BRINGING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL
SVR POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS CENTRAL TX S THROUGH SE OF ACT.
STRENGTHENING CINH WITH TIME SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
REAR-PROPAGATE W OF I-35.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...EDWARDS/HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
AUSTIN TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 220. WATCH NUMBER 220 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
945 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219...WW
221...WW 222...
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AS EMBEDDED TSTMS MOVE
EWD. CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE. ACTIVITY ALSO MAY BACKBUILD...BRINGING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL
SVR POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS CENTRAL TX S THROUGH SE OF ACT.
STRENGTHENING CINH WITH TIME SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
REAR-PROPAGATE W OF I-35.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...EDWARDS/HALES
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
MUCH OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 217...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 221. WATCH NUMBER 217 221
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 215...WW
218...WW 219...WW 222...WW 223...
DISCUSSION...WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ACCOMPANYING AVAILABLE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
MUCH OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 217...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 221. WATCH NUMBER 217 221
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 215...WW
218...WW 219...WW 222...WW 223...
DISCUSSION...WITH EXPECTED INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND
ACCOMPANYING AVAILABLE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HALES
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Florida1118
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
Outbreak on Monday, April 25th
Outbreak on Tuesday, April 26th
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
Turning into a derecho?
WWUS54 KJAN 270321
SVSJAN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
ARC003-LAC067-083-270415-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0273.000000T0000Z-110427T0415Z/
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR ASHLEY COUNTY...AND RICHLAND AND MOREHOUSE PARISHES...
AT 1020 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
80 MPH. SIREN ACTIVATION IS SUGGESTED AS THE LINE APPROACHES. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WEST CROSSETT TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUCKNER MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...BASTROP...BEEKMAN...COLLINSTON...ALTO...
OLD MILO...START...FOUNTAIN HILL...MER ROUGE...ARCHIBALD...HAMBURG...
MANGHAM...OAK RIDGE...RAYVILLE...BERLIN...GALION...BONITA...JONES...
HOLLY RIDGE...SNYDER...WILMOT...PORTLAND...PARKDALE AND MONTROSE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. WINDS OF 80 MPH OR
GREATER CAN EXTENSIVELY DAMAGE OR DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...WHICH
SHOULD BE EVACUATED IF POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
&&
LAT...LON 3331 9197 3340 9197 3340 9146 3302 9145
3300 9142 3273 9162 3241 9161 3234 9175
3219 9183 3218 9197 3227 9200 3228 9204
3252 9191 3267 9191 3266 9193 3271 9197
3272 9206 3302 9207 3309 9213 3320 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 268DEG 33KT 3325 9215 3207 9212
$$
BYB
WWUS54 KJAN 270321
SVSJAN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
ARC003-LAC067-083-270415-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0273.000000T0000Z-110427T0415Z/
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR ASHLEY COUNTY...AND RICHLAND AND MOREHOUSE PARISHES...
AT 1020 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
80 MPH. SIREN ACTIVATION IS SUGGESTED AS THE LINE APPROACHES. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WEST CROSSETT TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUCKNER MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CROSSETT...NORTH CROSSETT...BASTROP...BEEKMAN...COLLINSTON...ALTO...
OLD MILO...START...FOUNTAIN HILL...MER ROUGE...ARCHIBALD...HAMBURG...
MANGHAM...OAK RIDGE...RAYVILLE...BERLIN...GALION...BONITA...JONES...
HOLLY RIDGE...SNYDER...WILMOT...PORTLAND...PARKDALE AND MONTROSE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS LINE OF STORMS. WINDS OF 80 MPH OR
GREATER CAN EXTENSIVELY DAMAGE OR DESTROY MOBILE HOMES...WHICH
SHOULD BE EVACUATED IF POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES...ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
THE HAIL BEING PRODUCED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY
DAMAGE CARS AND ROOFS. PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT OF DOORS SHOULD MOVE INSIDE
A STRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
&&
LAT...LON 3331 9197 3340 9197 3340 9146 3302 9145
3300 9142 3273 9162 3241 9161 3234 9175
3219 9183 3218 9197 3227 9200 3228 9204
3252 9191 3267 9191 3266 9193 3271 9197
3272 9206 3302 9207 3309 9213 3320 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 268DEG 33KT 3325 9215 3207 9212
$$
BYB
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
FUS54 KSHV 270357
TORSHV
ARC139-LAC027-111-270500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0058.110427T0357Z-110427T0500Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JUNCTION CITY...EL DORADO...
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
* AT 1054 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR JUNCTION CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESSON...LAWSON...URBANA...STRONG AND LAPILE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3300 9220 3296 9287 3317 9290 3331 9246
3328 9242 3330 9233 3327 9230 3329 9228
3326 9221 3321 9221 3321 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 255DEG 42KT 3305 9277
$$
06
TORSHV
ARC139-LAC027-111-270500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0058.110427T0357Z-110427T0500Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN UNION PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JUNCTION CITY...EL DORADO...
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
* AT 1054 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR JUNCTION CITY...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESSON...LAWSON...URBANA...STRONG AND LAPILE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 3300 9220 3296 9287 3317 9290 3331 9246
3328 9242 3330 9233 3327 9230 3329 9228
3326 9221 3321 9221 3321 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 255DEG 42KT 3305 9277
$$
06
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...WRN/NRN LA...SERN
AR...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN MS...EXTREME NWRN AL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 222...223...
VALID 270433Z - 270630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 222...223...CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BEND DELINEATED BELOW.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SERN/CENTRAL LA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ONE OF
THESE WWS AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
BKN BELT OF SVR TSTMS IN CLUSTERS WAS EVIDENT AT 04Z FROM WRN TN
SWWD ACROSS NRN LA TO E TX. CLUSTERS OVER SERN AR/NRN LA AND OVER E
TX REMAIN SEPARATED BY WEAKER CONVECTION ATTM BUT MAY CONGEAL INTO
MORE SOLIDLY DEFINED/QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE WILL HELP FAVORABLE BUOYANCY TO PERSIST
WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN 1500-2500 J/KG. EXTREME ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THIS REGION AS MID-UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES SRN PLAINS AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVERSPREAD
WARM SECTOR. LA/MS REGIME INCLUDES 70-90 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND LLJ-AIDED 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH ARE
QUITE EXTRAORDINARY VALUES FOR WARM SECTOR CONTAINING SFC DEW POINTS
IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEARLY AS
STG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SRH WWD ACROSS SE TX...BUT STILL FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR OVER TX WILL BE
STRENGTHENING MLCINH...BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH WWD EXTENT.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN RATHER MESSY ACROSS ENTIRE WW...HOWEVER
EVEN EMBEDDED/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS MOVING EWD FROM NRN LA/SERN AR
INTO WRN MS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31469634 31719491 32559316 33209172 34159156 34989006
34988726 34428735 33798788 32318970 31309179 30469360
30169607 30239710 31099745 31329702 31469634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX...WRN/NRN LA...SERN
AR...WRN/CENTRAL/NRN MS...EXTREME NWRN AL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 222...223...
VALID 270433Z - 270630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 222...223...CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WWS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BEND DELINEATED BELOW.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SERN/CENTRAL LA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO ONE OF
THESE WWS AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
BKN BELT OF SVR TSTMS IN CLUSTERS WAS EVIDENT AT 04Z FROM WRN TN
SWWD ACROSS NRN LA TO E TX. CLUSTERS OVER SERN AR/NRN LA AND OVER E
TX REMAIN SEPARATED BY WEAKER CONVECTION ATTM BUT MAY CONGEAL INTO
MORE SOLIDLY DEFINED/QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE WILL HELP FAVORABLE BUOYANCY TO PERSIST
WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN 1500-2500 J/KG. EXTREME ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR PROFILES HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THIS REGION AS MID-UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES SRN PLAINS AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVERSPREAD
WARM SECTOR. LA/MS REGIME INCLUDES 70-90 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AND LLJ-AIDED 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-600 J/KG...WHICH ARE
QUITE EXTRAORDINARY VALUES FOR WARM SECTOR CONTAINING SFC DEW POINTS
IN UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEARLY AS
STG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SRH WWD ACROSS SE TX...BUT STILL FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR OVER TX WILL BE
STRENGTHENING MLCINH...BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH WWD EXTENT.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN RATHER MESSY ACROSS ENTIRE WW...HOWEVER
EVEN EMBEDDED/HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELLS MOVING EWD FROM NRN LA/SERN AR
INTO WRN MS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES.
..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31469634 31719491 32559316 33209172 34159156 34989006
34988726 34428735 33798788 32318970 31309179 30469360
30169607 30239710 31099745 31329702 31469634
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-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37991
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Potential Widespread Flooding/Severe Weather Event 4/23-28
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
MS...AL...FAR NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS
AND AL...NWRN GA...MUCH OF TN AND KY...WRN CAROLINAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF
COAST STATES NWD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER...
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z
WED...WITH A 100 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS N TX. THIS FEATURE WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 00Z AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND
INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER W CNTRL AR AT 12Z...WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO ERN TX. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
ENEWD...WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEARING SRN INDIANA BY 00Z AND A SHARP
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN...ERN MS
AND WRN AL.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE
IN PLACE BY MIDDAY WITH 68-72 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS LIKELY FROM
THE GULF COAST INTO MS/AL...AND MID TO UPPER 60S F OVER TN AND SRN
KY WHERE SUBSTANTIAL MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING. WITH
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WIND FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH/JET MAX...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A TORNADO OUTBREAK...WITH LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA.
TO THE E...THE BROAD SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL EXTEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A SECONDARY MOIST PLUME OFF THE
ATLANTIC NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WRN VA BY AFTERNOON.
--- AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN MS...NRN AL...TN AND KY. ---
...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN/OH VALLEYS...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD TODAY...BEGINNING RATHER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER SRN AND ERN AR AND NRN LA. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
AR BETWEEN 12-15Z...THEN DEVELOPING IT NEWD ACROSS TN/KY BY 00Z.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING...AND SOME WILL BE
SEVERE...FROM NRN LA/SRN AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
AND KY. DESPITE TIME OF DAY...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CAPPING AND SURFACE BASED EFFECTIVE PARCELS.
THUS...A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR.
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S F...THIS WILL CREATE
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER MS AND AL NWD TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE EARLY STORMS CAPPED...ALLOWING A BUILD UP OF
INSTABILITY TO BE RELEASED WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING ARRIVES DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE FAST MOVING
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. GIVEN
THE FAST STORM MOTIONS AND RELATIVELY WIDE WARM SECTOR...SOME
TORNADOES COULD BE LONG LIVED. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE TYPES
OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGH RISK AREA...OVER NRN MS AND
AL...INTO EXTREME NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST TO THE E...BUT CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO MORE OF A
QLCS STRUCTURE CAPABLE OF PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
...WRN NC/VA...
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER WRN
NC/VA. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700
MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AIR MASS CAPPED. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS SELY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WIND
PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
HAIL AND WIND. WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THE DAYTIME
CONVECTION.
..JEWELL.. 04/27/2011
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
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#neversummer
367
WFUS54 KHUN 271109
TORHUN
ALC043-095-103-271145-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0042.110427T1109Z-110427T1145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 606 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED DAMAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 70 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HULACO.
RYAN CROSSROADS.
MORGAN CITY.
WFUS54 KHUN 271109
TORHUN
ALC043-095-103-271145-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0042.110427T1109Z-110427T1145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
609 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 606 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED DAMAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 70 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
HULACO.
RYAN CROSSROADS.
MORGAN CITY.
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323
WFUS54 KHUN 271111
TORHUN
TNC051-271145-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0043.110427T1111Z-110427T1145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 609 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
NEAR LOIS...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS STORM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
OAK GROVE.
WOODS RESERVOIR.
ALTO.
WFUS54 KHUN 271111
TORHUN
TNC051-271145-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0043.110427T1111Z-110427T1145Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 609 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
NEAR LOIS...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS STORM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
OAK GROVE.
WOODS RESERVOIR.
ALTO.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271119Z - 271215Z
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS
AND CONTINUE INTO WRN GA. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LINE OF STORMS WITH LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
KY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AL AND IS MOVING EAST AT 45-55 KT. INSTABILITY
DOWNSTREAM IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG BUT REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD GIVEN STRONG STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS /400+ 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY/ SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...
LAT...LON 32918402 32708493 33368524 34788542 34778436 32918402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 271119Z - 271215Z
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS
AND CONTINUE INTO WRN GA. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LINE OF STORMS WITH LEWP AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EXTENDS FROM CNTRL
KY SWD THROUGH CNTRL AL AND IS MOVING EAST AT 45-55 KT. INSTABILITY
DOWNSTREAM IS MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG BUT REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD GIVEN STRONG STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS /400+ 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY/ SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 04/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...FFC...
LAT...LON 32918402 32708493 33368524 34788542 34778436 32918402
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR...NRN/CNTRL MS...SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271125Z - 271230Z
THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL SHIFT E-NEWD FROM CNTRL AR AND NRN
LA...AND A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW226.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL SHIFT
E-NEWD OUT OF WW226 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED STRONG ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES
THE MID-SOUTH. A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY TO THE EAST OF
WW226. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CNTRL MS NORTH OF TORNADO
WATCH 225...STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED POSING A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER...AS SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES WITH
TIME AFTER SUNRISE...THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT BY LATE MORNING.
..COHEN.. 04/27/2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR...NRN/CNTRL MS...SWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271125Z - 271230Z
THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL SHIFT E-NEWD FROM CNTRL AR AND NRN
LA...AND A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW226.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL SHIFT
E-NEWD OUT OF WW226 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED STRONG ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES
THE MID-SOUTH. A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY TO THE EAST OF
WW226. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CNTRL MS NORTH OF TORNADO
WATCH 225...STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ELEVATED POSING A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER...AS SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES WITH
TIME AFTER SUNRISE...THE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A
TORNADO THREAT BY LATE MORNING.
..COHEN.. 04/27/2011
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460
WFUS54 KHUN 271152
TORHUN
ALC049-071-095-271230-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0046.110427T1152Z-110427T1230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 730 AM CDT
* AT 645 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MULTIPLE
TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS NEAR GUNTERSVILLE...ARAB...AND COLUMBUS CITY.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE TORNADOES. THESE
TORNADOES WERE LOCATED NEAR HOPEWELL...COLUMBUS CITY...AND GRANT
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
LANGSTON.
LIM ROCK.
SCOTTSBORO.
HOLLYWOOD.
MARTINTOWN.
FACKLER.
WFUS54 KHUN 271152
TORHUN
ALC049-071-095-271230-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0046.110427T1152Z-110427T1230Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
652 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 730 AM CDT
* AT 645 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MULTIPLE
TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS NEAR GUNTERSVILLE...ARAB...AND COLUMBUS CITY.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE TORNADOES. THESE
TORNADOES WERE LOCATED NEAR HOPEWELL...COLUMBUS CITY...AND GRANT
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
LANGSTON.
LIM ROCK.
SCOTTSBORO.
HOLLYWOOD.
MARTINTOWN.
FACKLER.
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