WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[Typhoon10]

Even the reportedly "not so accurate" HKO show as something developing in the next 72 hours

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp72e.htm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Really looks, like this is going to develop up. Right now sat loop is displaying a distinct circulation and JT has upgraded it to fair,

to answer the question about JTWC, yes it is for a 24 hour period.

But yes, I think we will have a TS by tomorrow night, my thoughts though.

[dexterlabio]

I agree with that. It's kind of surprising that only few people are talking about this invest.


Based on my observation, the convection still looks a bit scattered and broad but I really think a nice circulation is starting to roll up. It definitely has a big potential to be the first named cyclone in Western Pacific this year.

[dexterlabio]

And yeah, JTWC upgraded it to Fair.

ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZMAY2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
133.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS STILL UNORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 040009Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
AWAY INDICATES A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC MOVED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

Looks like we'll have significant system in the coming days....

I know this may sound weird but as long as it doesn't bring too much rain or wind, I wouldn't mind it affecting the country considering how hot it is here right now(I HATE SUMMER!)

[dexterlabio]

^Especially today, the hottest temperature in Manila was recorded this afternoon. But I guess the heat this year is more bearable compared to last year's summer, when El Nino made the country sizzle.

The circulation of this disturbance has become more organized.

[dexterlabio]

TCFA already issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 129.6E TO 11.6N 126.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 129.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051400Z.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Wow! I'm awake after a long, boring, windy, cold winter...Ready to track this thing. All systems go!

[Extratropical94]

Thanks for the explanation Rob.
It sure is confusing but since they are professional mets they do have their reasons for what they write and I think we all here appreciate their way of doing so.

To come back to the topic, NRL is currently reporting 20 knots and 1005 mbar central pressure.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yes there is defiantly a circulation there, I would say a TD in the next 12 hours, any one elses thoughts?
[img]
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_s ... E.80pc.jpg[/img]

[oaba09]

Yes there is defiantly a circulation there, I would say a TD in the next 12 hours, any one elses thoughts?

Would being near land affect it's development?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yes there is defiantly a circulation there, I would say a TD in the next 12 hours, any one elses thoughts?

Would being near land affect it's development?

Most defiantly, but currently looks like it will linger in the PI sea long enough for some development. Also Visayas.. I think I spelled it right, has so much water in it there.

[oaba09]

Yes there is defiantly a circulation there, I would say a TD in the next 12 hours, any one elses thoughts?

Would being near land affect it's development?

Most defiantly, but currently looks like it will linger in the PI sea long enough for some development. Also Visayas.. I think I spelled it right, has so much water in it there.

Yup, you spelled it correctly

Forecasted tracks are still inconclusive so I guess we'll have to wait for a few more hours...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Exactly, models are still split on this, I still think we will have a TD here today, my thoughts are it will go NW over Luzon and Dissipate as a TS. But that's about it.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow! I'm awake after a long, boring, windy, cold winter...Ready to track this thing. All systems go!

I know what you mean, Okinawa really did have a brutal winter, really windy with all the cold surges. Good news looks like those are ending here. Finally....

[StormingB81]

Wow! I'm awake after a long, boring, windy, cold winter...Ready to track this thing. All systems go!

I know what you mean, Okinawa really did have a brutal winter, really windy with all the cold surges. Good news looks like those are ending here. Finally....

she needs to stop being a stranger..lol

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 050920

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 05/0832Z

C. 11.0N

D. 128.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


QUAST

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared