WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[oaba09]

Should give a a couple of "cool days" w/c is very much welcome in this heat...temperature here ranges from 32-36 degrees celsius...

[ManilaTC]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc11/WPAC/03W.THREE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20110506.2332.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.03WTHREE.30kts-1000mb-122N-1274E.100pc.jpg

If you guys still have difficulty getting a fix, then this image says, its right in front of ya!!!


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 MAY 2011 Time : 233200 UTC
Lat : 12:15:57 N Lon : 126:46:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.8mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.5



379
TPPN10 PGTW 070020

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 06/2332Z

C. 12.8N

D. 126.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/1827Z 12.4N 127.4E TRMM
06/2107Z 12.6N 127.2E SSMS


2.5 on the Dvorak. I say we upgrade to TS.

[StormingB81]

JMA starting to issue warnings now...which means it is about to be updated to TS status

TD
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 7 May 2011
<Analyses at 07/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°40'(12.7°)
E126°55'(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[StormingB81]

JTWC should be coming out any minute see if they upgrade it.

[StormingB81]

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 126.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.7N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.6N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.6N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.4N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.5N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 126.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Should give a a couple of "cool days" w/c is very much welcome in this heat...temperature here ranges from 32-36 degrees celsius...

I'm sure that will be a good thing coming out of this, a little cooling from this storm defiantly will not be un-welcomed.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My thoughts for today, will have another video this evening, also want to note I made it before JT upgraded this to TS.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGGL1rg3IzU[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

Close up

[cebuboy]

Hi I'm from Cebu...It started to get very cold and raining here. But no strong winds. Just an update.

[oaba09]

Hi I'm from Cebu...It started to get very cold and raining here. But no strong winds. Just an update.

Visayas is the affected location at the moment...The system isn't a strong one but it will bring some much needed rain...

[ManilaTC]

Visayas has been drenched already... they dont need the extra rain like we do here in Luzon...

[HURAKAN]

bursting over the center

[dexterlabio]

Like I said, that system has been staying there for days. I'm actually concerned more about Samar because the thick rain clouds from 03W has been affecting the area for 3 days up to now. It's not a strong cyclone although the damage it can cause in terms of flooding is considerable. I hope it wouldn't turn out like what happened during Ketsana in 2009 and Thelma/Uring way back 1990's.

TPPN10 PGTW 070329

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03W (THREE)

B. 07/0232Z

C. 12.6N

D. 126.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HATHAWAY

[phwxenthusiast]

well, according to WMO, Catbalogan, Samar received around 149mm in the past 24 hours... that's heavy but not way too extreme yet.. This one's moving slowly though so that number could rise further in the next 2 days...

[dexterlabio]

Latest satpic from PAGASA.

[Chacor]

Rob, this system isn't Aere (yet), so your video was titled wrongly. However as Storming points out, the JMA has begun issuing warnings on this, meaning they forecast a TS within 24 hours.

[dexterlabio]

I see a round burst of deep convection near the center of 03W. Is that what we call a Central Dense Overcast?

[westerncyclonecenter]

latest weather updates at westerncyclonecenter.blogspot.com

[dexterlabio]

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W
/WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES
(062226Z SSMIS AND 062330Z SSMIS) INDICATE TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND ON
THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN MSI. OVERALL, THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (<10 KNOTS) AND STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
OUTFLOW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS
03W IS CAUSING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SCENARIO AND FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NGPS, WHICH
APPEARS TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER THE
SYSTEM CROSSES LUZON. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE STR AND
CONTINUE ALONG A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (> 27 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND REMAINS WITHIN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-EMERGE IN
THE LUZON STRAIGHT BY TAU 72 AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AND CAUSING A MORE POLEWARD RIDGE ORIENTATION.
BASED ON THIS PATTERN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AND
TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN WILL PREVENT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE LUZON
STRAIGHT IN THE LATER TAUS. BASED ON THE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TS 03W WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE LUZON
STRAIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER.//
NNNN