WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

Newest Warning From JTWC is out, noting little change in the long range towards Okinawa, really still think this is a Bureaucratic move to keep the base prepared there.

Also noting they moved landfall back an hour to about 0300PST.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Newest Video Below, some good footage on youtube as well coming out of this, I embedded another video of some of the flooding below my update as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCZzbDUDtQs[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L29sTgV6Y7A[/youtube]

[oaba09]

It's quite windy here in my location right now...Not too strong but it's definitely an effect of AERE...

[oaba09]

latest from JMA:

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 15.1N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 19.5N 121.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 101200UTC 21.8N 121.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 111200UTC 25.0N 123.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[dexterlabio]

So it is raining like there's no tomorrow here in Quezon City, there were just drizzle breaks for some minutes then the rain would start to pour again. I don't know with other areas in Luzon. My colleagues from Las Pinas are saying the rains there are heavy. We actually have to meet tonight for our presentation tomorrow but it seems that the weather won't let us to. And the winds are quite picking up, though not too strong.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

So it is raining like there's no tomorrow here in Quezon City, there were just drizzle breaks for some minutes then the rain would start to pour again. I don't know with other areas in Luzon. My colleagues from Las Pinas are saying the rains there are heavy. We actually have to meet tonight for our presentation tomorrow but it seems that the weather won't let us to. And the winds are quite picking up, though not too strong.

Wind also picked up in my area...I guess PAGASA did the right decision in placing metro manila under signal #1

[dexterlabio]

It looks like Aere is slowly moving for the past three hours, but I don't know if it is just me. Viewing satellite animation can sometimes be tricky to the eyes.

[dexterlabio]

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.3N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.2N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 122.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

It looks like Aere is slowly moving for the past three hours, but I don't know if it is just me. Viewing satellite animation can sometimes be tricky to the eyes.

Yup, it's definitely moving slowly at the moment...

[dexterlabio]

If you'll take a look at the recent satloop, the storm appears to be moving NE.

[phwxenthusiast]

oh boy it's about to make landfall...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Death toll seems to have increased to 6 now.

killed as ‘Bebeng’ slams Catanduanes


Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:08:00 05/09/2011

Filed Under: Weather, Landslide, Flood, Disasters (general)

MANILA, Philippines—Tropical Storm “Bebeng” made landfall in Catanduanes province before noon Sunday, bringing heavy rains and landslides that left at least six people, including three children, dead in the Bicol region and the Visayas.

One went missing and thousands of residents were evacuated from their homes.

Packing gusts of up to 100 kilometers per hour, Bebeng (international name: Aere) cut power and telecommunication service in many parts of Bicol.

Camarines Sur was without electricity since Saturday and Sorsogon since 3 a.m. of Sunday. Many parts of Albay, including Legazpi City, were also without power Sunday.

[RobWESTPACWX]

A little later than expected but landfall should be occurring here soon.

[dhoeze]

Power has just been restored here in our place. Winds weakened and no rains.
around 3AM was the fortecasted landfall right?

[RobWESTPACWX]

3AM was but it has shifted slightly N thus changing the landfall time back by a few hours. Glad you got your power back on!

[RobWESTPACWX]

NEWEST JTWC



081800Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 122.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOW AND TURN
POLEWARD SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IR IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A WEAKENING IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES OF 45 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CYCLIC TREND IN CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AND SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
LUZON BY TAU 12. RECENT UPPER AIR OBSERVATION IN THE REGION INDICATE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AS A WEAK TS THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A WEAK EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD (NOW TRACKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS OKINAWA, JAPAN
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72) TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. FORECAST INTENSITY
IN THE LATER TAUS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED DUE TO AN INCREASING
TREND IN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BASED ON
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THERE IS A
CHANCE DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//

[oaba09]

Winds are still strong in my area...Maybe it's because we're located in the northern most part of metro manila...

[phwxenthusiast]

NAIA is still reporting strong winds (21G31KT) as well based on the latest METAR... the winds are from 250 btw, that's southwest...