WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[RobWESTPACWX]

I do see some increased convection towards the center indicated on the imagery below. This storm continues to surprise me so a slight intensification would not wow me to much.

[StormingB81]

Heres the Lates tfrom JTWC..with the latest from the shift to looks a better organized probably wont know anything till the 1800 update if any...

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.3N 121.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 121.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.5N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.6N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.5N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.5N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 122.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

I cant put the photo up but it is forecasted no to come within 5 NM of Kadena AB with 35 knot winds gusting to 45.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 20.1N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 24.5N 126.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 120000UTC 30.7N 131.8E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ya Kadena looks like it is going to get some gale force winds out of this, TCOR 3 is still in effect according to there site there. Sadly I'm going rolling out to Osaka here on the 12th as well. Looks like my trip is going to be plagued with high winds and rain. With some luck though in the wake of this storm some nice weather will prevail. Bad news though is the Baiu season is really starting to set up, so rain daily across much of Japan is going to be common for the coming month.

[phwxenthusiast]

showing signs of more convection i think.. wouldn't be surprised if this goes back up to 40-45 kts...

[RobWESTPACWX]

For the readers in Taiwan

[StormingB81]

So about 4 hours ago Kadena Facebook page said that we would probably not go into TCCOR 2..that was before this flare up..wonder if that 1800 advisory will make them eat thier words..lol

[StormingB81]

Very interesting..the new warning is out from JTWC..and the winds stayed the same...could that be posible with the flare up of convection?

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 122.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 122.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.3N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 122.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO CURVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
THE STEERING RIDGE IS WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD, WHICH
WILL ALLOW 03W TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD COURSE. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THE CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED
CLOSER TO THE LLCC. THE MILD SURGE IN CONVECTION IS AN EFFECT OF
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
COMPETING INFLUENCES OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE STORM'S WESTERN FLANK, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FLAT THROUGH THE RYUKUS DUE TO A DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL DRIVE THE POLAR
FRONT JET POLEWARD AND SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH,
KEEPING 03W WITHIN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 30
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THIS WILL ALLOW 03W TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE RYUKUS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL
GUIDNACE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.

//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

heres a link to the track which stays the same.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp0311.gif

[RobWESTPACWX]

My Update for today, Infidoll if your around could you post this at the Okinawa Forum as well? Good to get the word out there. I know last year it was a big help.

I'm sure winds there will be pretty gusty, with the thunderstorms as well. But it shouldnt be to much windier than a winter cold surge. How are conditions right now? I seen radar had some large cells making there way NE.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwV9P4Wmak8[/youtube]


Also not a shortage of warnings on this system..

[Infdidoll]

It's looking kind of pitiful on satellite. I've been watching wind analysis of this thing dropping. I haven't really looked at the recent wind shear maps for the area, recently, but wondering if it's finally hit shear.

[Infdidoll]

OB: Overcast with showers, a few ominous-looking storm clouds, but . Winds seem to be coming from the ESE or SE side of our building today. Light rains...Winds have been moderate - no more than 20 mph. So far, seems like a normal, rainy season day.

[StormingB81]

It did look like it had potential earlier as you can see from my early posts but now I look at it, it doesn't look as good as before....Just a rainy windy regular day looks like.

[StormingB81]

It's looking kind of pitiful on satellite. I've been watching wind analysis of this thing dropping. I haven't really looked at the recent wind shear maps for the area, recently, but wondering if it's finally hit shear.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... rjava.html

Funny enough it looks like the wind shear has opened a door and has dropped just where the path is of the storm...

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 21.5N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 26.2N 126.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 120600UTC 31.4N 132.6E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 22.2N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 26.8N 127.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 121200UTC 32.3N 135.0E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[KWT]

Not an awful lot left on the Sat.imagery thats for sure, esp towards the center of the system.