Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning on this mothers day to all of them in the Caribbean and Centralamerica.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SUN MAY 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE
ATLANTIC FROM MASSACHUSETTS WILL DEVELOP VIGOROUSLY AND FORM
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES EAST. THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INFLOW INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL JET AT UPPER LEVELS THAT
BRUSHES PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTRIBUTING SOME
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT PASSES. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK EAST-WEST RIDGE NEAR 23 NORTH WILL BE
BREACHED BY A LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND A MUCH STRONGER
LOW...AROUND 999 MB...NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA WITH A PRESSURE SADDLE
JUST NORTHEAST OF US HAVING ONLY LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL BRING A STREAM OF
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR THIS
MORNING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH. A NOTABLE BOUNDARY DEMARCATED BY MID OR LOWER CLOUDS IS
VISIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ACROSS SAINT KITTS. SOME TROUGHINESS
IS ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY AND MAY SERVE AS A PRECURSOR TO
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL STREAM
AROUND THIS LOW TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRUSH
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND IN-SPITE OF ITS FOCUS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP PRODUCE GOOD CONVECTION OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEVERTHELESS DRIER
AIR REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THIS
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE CHIEF PROBLEM IN ASCERTAINING THE AMOUNT
AND PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THAT HEATING
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANY
MOISTURE WEAKNESS AT MID LEVELS AND WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST
SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. MEANWHILE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE BANDING ACROSS THEM DUE TO THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...MAKING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THEM...EVEN IF THE STRONG HEATING FOUND ONLY IN THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO IS LACKING. DRYING RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ECMWF DOES NOT
MOVE TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE
WEEK AS WITH THE GFS MODEL...BUT INSTEAD DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...CARRYING THE SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE IT GENERATES OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HENCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR THE TIME BEING AND THE FORECAST MAY
TURN WETTER AS ACTUAL SITUATION BECOMES APPARENT.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TKPK...WHERE MVFR CONDS
HAVE PERSISTED AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 08/12Z DUE
TO CIGS BELOW 3 KFT. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH
HEIGHT ABOVE 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY TRANQUIL...BUT WAVES FROM
THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 75 / 0 0 0 10
STT 84 74 85 77 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

It looks like things will be very wet in the comming days in the Eastern Caribbean,especially from next Sunday and beyond. I will post updates about this as time goes by for the Caribbean folks to prepare for this event.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
232 PM AST SUN MAY 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE AREA
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAINTAINING A VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH NO RAIN OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST FOR TOO LONG. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BEGINNING ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DOMINATING
THE LOCAL AREA...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...INTENSIFY AND DEEPEN. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RULE
THE WEATHER LOCALLY DURING THE NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...WITH PW VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.2 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE...AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS IS A TYPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE MONTH OF MAY
LOCALLY...WHERE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS COMBINE WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH NORMALLY INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
AS WE MOVES TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THRU 16Z MON ALL PR AND ST. THOMAS TERMINALS.
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRAS AT STX/NCM/KPK TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SCT-NMRS AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR OF PR MON-THU
WITH JPS LIKELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING MVFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 75 84 / 0 20 10 30
STT 76 85 75 83 / 10 10 10 10

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sat-2pmET Sun) for
Sun May 8 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.6C 91F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 30.8C 88F
Crown Point, Tobago 30.6C 87F
Point Salines, Grenada 30.4C 87F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.9C 88F
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.1C 88F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.4C 88F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.3C 88F trace
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 31.5C 89F

Melville Hall, Dominica 30.1C 86F 4.0mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 30.0C 86F 3.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.8C 86F 0.2mm
VC Bird, Antigua 28.4C 83F 0.8mm
St Croix, VI 29.4C 85F trace
St Thomas, VI 30.0C 86F
San Juan, PR 28.9C 84F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.4C 88F
Kingston, Jamaica 31.6C 89F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.1C 92F
Havana, Cuba 32.3C 90F
Key West, FL 29.4C 85F
Marathon, FL 31.6C 89F
Miami, FL 32.8C 91F trace
Nassau, Bahams 30.2C 86F
Hamilton, Bermuda 23.3C 74F 0.8mm

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Today (May 8) was a very warm day in Central America especially in terms of maximum temperatures, only Costa Rica and Panama had cooler than normal highs though the lows were pretty warm.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15°C (59°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.0°C (39.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.9°C (51.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F) Warmest for 2011.
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 25.
La Esperanza, Honduras 12°C (54°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 29°C (84°F) Warmest for 2011.
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 20°C (68°F) Warmest for 2011.
Panama city, Panama 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.5°C (61.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.5°C (88.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.5°C (103.1°F) 8th consecutive day with highs above 100°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F) 7th consecutive day with highs above 100°F
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28°C (82°C)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26°C (79°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Moisture will slowly increase in the Eastern Caribbean area in the comming days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST MON MAY 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE TAIL OF A
SUB TROPICAL JET SWINGS ACROSS PUERTO RICO THURSDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRAVELS THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM FLORIDA ON TUESDAY
TO HISPANIOLA EARLY THURSDAY AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY
MORNING. A SECOND JET FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND
AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTH TO 32 NORTH BEFORE
TURNING EAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BRIDGE THE TROUGH
BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND A LOW ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST
LEAVING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN A LIGHT WIND
PATTERN AND BETWEEN A RATHER DRY AIR MASS AND THE TROPICAL AIR TO
THE SOUTH. A RIDGE FROM A 1034 MB HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DISSIPATED EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING ONLY MODERATE SHOWERS
SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX AND THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND INDICATED THE GENERAL EXTENT OF THE MOIST
AIR. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA
WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY. BUT MODELS AGREE THAT THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MID LEVELS
WILL SEE ONLY A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE. POPS WERE KEPT
IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ARRIVAL OF
ENOUGH MOISTURE...CONSIDERING THAT NO SHOWERS WERE SEEN
YESTERDAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT MID CLOUDS WILL BLOCK ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO PREVENT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL WEAK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...THUS
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD AND DEEPER CONVECTION WITH MORE
PROBABILITY OF LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE TAIL OF A JET PASSES BY. UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE HIT AND MISS WITH STRONG BANDS OF
DIVERGENCE THAT ARE RARELY OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE TIME OF
BEST CONVECTION AND THE BEST HUMIDITY IS ALWAYS SOUTH OR EAST OF
THE AREA SO...AT THIS TIME...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
LOOKS VERY LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 09/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO THROUGH
ABOUT 09/24Z. ALSO...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TKPK...TNCM...AND TISX. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR
LESS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 3 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER WITH HEIGHT AFTER 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN SWELL FROM
THE STRONG LOW SINKING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ARRIVE IN
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 74 / 10 10 20 50
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 20 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST MON MAY 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. AN INVERTED SFC TROF WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEPER OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SHEARLINE MOVES NORTHWARD AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING
TROF ACROSS THE ATLC. ANTICIPATE THINGS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH THU LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD AS
INVERTED TROF MOVES ACROSS PR INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. ON TUE-WED...
CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND MOVE GENERALLY EAST WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU WHEN A SIG S/W
TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INVERTED SFC TROF INTO
THE MONA PASSAGE. TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DECREASING. HOWEVER...EXPECT WILL SEE
DAILY CONVECTION UNDER A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE TAF
SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEA BREEZES DEVELOPED ALONG THE
COASTS PUSHING WINDS TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION AT NEAR 10KTS. AS A
RESULT...ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AT LEAST
THROUGH 09/21Z. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
TKPK AND TNCM NEAR SHWRS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISHING 1-3 FT TONIGHT BUT FCST TO BUILD AGAIN
UP TO 6 FT ATLC WATERS FRI IN NORTH SWELLS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 20 40 50 50
STT 75 84 74 84 / 20 30 50 50

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Sun-2pmET Mon) for
Mon May 9 2011

RAINS LASH ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.2C 92F (month 53.5mm)
Maraval, NW Trinidad 33.1C 92F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 89F

Point Salines, Grenada 29.8C 86F
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.6C 87F 16.4mm (month 162.9mm)
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 31.1C 88F 6.5mm
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 30.5C 87F
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.4C 89F 0.1mm
LeLamentin, Martinique 31.2C 88F 0.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 27.6C 82F 35.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 25.6C 78F 103.0mm (month 107.3mm)
West End, Anguilla 28.9C 84F
St Croix, VI 29.4C 85F
St Thomas, VI 30.6C 87F
San Juan, PR 29.4C 85F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 30.1C 86F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.6C 91F
Key West, FL 28.9C 84F
Marathon, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 33.9C 93F

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 PM AST MON MAY 9 2011

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED
ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BY THE THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSE TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
SEGMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PROVIDING GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC ACROSS THE FA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW E OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND TRIGGER ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA ALONG AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT A MOIST WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FA...TYPICAL FOR THIS MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND THE
VI TAF SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. AFT 10/16Z BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH ABOUT 10/22Z. EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 3
KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER WITH HEIGHT AFTER 3 KFT.

[Macrocane]

It was a warm day in most of Central America today, even the lows have been uncomfortable warm, last night I had to turn on my A/C because of it. Only Panama experienced cooler than normal highs today.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18°C (64°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 4.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26°C (79°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 20.
San Salvador, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F) Warmest for 2011.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.9°C (78.6°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 3.
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.2°C (100.8°F) 9th consecutive day with highs above 100°F
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29.4°C (84.9°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F) 8th consecutive day with highs above 100°F
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Esteli, Nicaragua 28°C (82°C)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.7°C (83.7°F) 2nd coolest for 2011.
Boquete, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Increasing shower activity is forecast for today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
VIRGINIA IS BRINGING THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM FLORIDA...ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TO NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IN A WIDE CYCLONIC ARC. THE JET SINKS SOUTH TOWARD THE
AREA BUT ONLY THE TAIL BRUSHES PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SECOND JET IN A TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHING CUTS ACROSS A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN A
STRONG LOW TO THE NORTH AND A WEAKER LOW ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING UP CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
THAT FORMS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WHERE WINDS FROM THE TWO SYSTEMS
MEET IN THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THEN MOISTURE CONTINUES NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA IN FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A LARGE HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
THAT IS BUTTRESSED BY A MIGRATING HIGH THAT BUILDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR HAS SHOWN MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY AND IS INDICATIVE
OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF TODAY`S AIR MASS. SOUNDERS IN
SAINT CROIX AND SAN JUAN CONFIRM THAT PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE IS
APPROACHING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL FUEL GOOD CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG CAPPING AT 800 MB WILL REDUCE THE INTENSITY OF THESE
SHOWERS FOR A WHILE BUT STILL EXPECT SOME LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS RISING TURRETS COOL AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP.
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. CURRENT
MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AROUND 2 INCHES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AN
EVEN MORE DRAMATIC RECOVERY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN SOUTHEAST FLOW RENEWS THE MOISTURE FLOW. MODELS ARE CHANGING
LITTLE AT THE MOMENT. THE STRONG LOW AT THE SURFACE IS UNDER AN
EQUALLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT TOGETHER FAVORS A
TROUGH THAT BRIDGES THE USUAL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS ABLE TO
ATTRACT THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN TO
FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH THERE. THIS KEEPS MOISTURE IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A STRONG HIGH IN THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC IS BUTTRESSED BY A MIGRATING HIGH THAT MOVES OFFSHORE
FROM THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...BUILDING AS IT GOES...AND CREATES
THE SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHEAST COAST...INCLUDING SAN JUAN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND THE VI TAF
SITES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR TKPK AND
POSSIBLE FOR TNCM OVERNIGHT. AFT 10/16Z BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PR THROUGH
ABOUT 11/00Z. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 KTS OR LESS
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 3 KFT...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER
WITH HEIGHT AFTER 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALSO SEND
SOME HIGHER SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. EXPECT MINIMAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERIODS OF AROUND 11 SECONDS. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL SEAS OF GENERALLY 4 FEET OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 75 / 20 40 40 20
STT 84 75 84 76 / 20 40 20 30

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

PRC009-035-043-069-075-095-113-149-151-102200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0076.110510T1854Z-110510T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-VILLALBA PR-MAUNABO PR-HUMACAO PR-
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-YABUCOA PR-
254 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...MAUNABO...HUMACAO...JUANA
DIAZ...PONCE AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 253 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN
GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1800 6668 1815 6667 1814 6653 1818 6635
1813 6607 1805 6615 1809 6622 1804 6631

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE REINFORCED
BY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER IT WILL
BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LOCAL REGION BY THURSDAY.
IN DOING SO...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA WILL BE
BETTER POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUING THOUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...VEERING WINDS AND PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT DEEP TROPICAL ITCZ
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. MEANWHILE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER ACROSS
THE EAST ATLANTIC IS SEPARATED BY STRONG SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCING
A SURFACE TROUGH AND LIGHT/CONVERGENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND SOME EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE BEING
STEERED BY THE PREVAILING SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND CONTINUED
TO AFFECT MOST OF THE MUNICIPALITIES ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
OF PUERTO RICO...WHILE DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER LAND.

HOWEVER...THE LOCAL SCENARIO AS WELL AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH
TEN TO SUGGEST THAT THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSTM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z. AS A RESULT...TEMPO PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDS ARE PSBL NEAR SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...
TIST AND TISX. VCSH INCLUDED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES...THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL NE WNDS AT AROUND 10 KTS FROM SFC-3 KFT...
BECOMING SSW AT AROUND 10 KTS BTWN 3-10 KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 84 / 40 40 20 70
STT 74 84 74 81 / 40 30 40 70

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-045-051-105-135-137-102300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0009.110510T2009Z-110510T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
COMERIO
NARANJITO
TOA ALTA
DORADO
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 400 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED
TO INDICATE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER RIO DE LA
PLATA AT COMERIO AND TOA ALTA...WHICH IS LEADING TO RAPID RISES IN
THE RIO DE LA PLATA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN MEASURED IN SOME AREAS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1823 6624 1827 6622 1831 6623 1834 6626
1839 6627 1843 6627 1848 6627 1848 6623
1841 6623 1836 6622 1831 6619 1827 6619
1820 6622 1820 6624

$$

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

PRC007-019-025-041-045-063-077-085-129-102215-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-110510T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-
JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
344 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...
JUNCOS...GURABO...SAN LORENZO AND LAS PIEDRAS

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 340 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES
AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO
RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
EXTENDED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6634 1830 6597 1824 6586 1815 6592
1814 6614 1818 6635

$$

FIGUEROA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

NWS extended the Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-045-051-105-135-137-110100-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110511T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
647 PM AST TUE MAY 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
COMERIO
NARANJITO
TOA ALTA
DORADO
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

* AT 640 PM AST...THE LATEST READINGS OF THE U.S.G.S RIVER SENSOR AT
RIO DE LA PLATA INDICATED THAT THE RIVER LEVELS REMAINED ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE THOUGH FALLING SLOWLY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING BUT
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THOSE
REASONS THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM AST...FOR THE
RIO DE LA PLATA AND ITS TRIBUTARIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (rain is 8pmET Mon-8pmET Tues) for
Tue May 10 2011

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 33.8C 93F trace
Maraval, NW Trinidad 31.9C 90F
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 90F
Point Salines, Grenada 31.1C 88F

Grantley ADams, Barbados 30.8C 87F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.8C 87F
Hewannora Airport, St Lucia 31.1C 88F 5.6mm
Vigie Airport, St Lucia 31.4C 89F trace

Melville Hall, Dominica 31.6C 89F trace
LeLamentin, Martinique 33.2C 92F 0.4mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.9C 86F 2.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.6C 89F trace
St Croix, VI 29.4C 85F 1.8mm
St Thomas, VI 30.0C 86F trace
San Juan, PR 29.4C 85F 0.8mm

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.3C 88F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 32.9C 91F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 32.8C 91F
Havana, Cuba 33.3C 92F
Marathon, FL 32.2C 90F
Key West, FL 30.0C 86F
Miami, FL 31.6C 89F
Hamilton, Bermuda 22.1C 72F 0.3mm

Queen Beatrix, Aruba 33.1C 92F

-justin-

[Macrocane]

Hi, today was another warm day in most of Central America although El Salvador experienced today a small relief from the heat of the previous days as we had a cloudy morning and a rainy afternoon in fact the minimum temperatures registered today in El Salvador occurred after the storm and not before dawn as usual.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 18°C (64°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 4 and yesterday.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.1°C (50.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.1°C (57.4°F) Warmest for 2011.
San Miguel, El Salvador 25.4°C (77.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.3°C (61.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.9°C (78.6°F) Warmest for 2011, tied April 3 and yesterday.
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.1°C (97.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30.6°C (87.1°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°C)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.3°C (73.9°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More rain is expected for today in Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED MAY 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTH OF
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CONVERGENT WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND
THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. ANOTHER AREA
THAT WAS AFFECTED BY SHOWERS WAS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO BE STEER BY THE
PREVAILING SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND CONTINUED TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE MUNICIPALITIES ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...WHILE DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE TO
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON TUESDAY...SOILS HAVE
BECOME SATURATED THEREFORE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES TO OCCUR.

THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A PERSISTENT
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 11/16Z. TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEAR SHRA/TSTM...MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TIST AND TISX FROM
11/16Z THROUGH AT LEAST 11/23Z. VCSH INCLUDED FOR THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN SMALL AND LIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MARINERS WILL
BE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
A LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 1200 NM NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHERN SWELLS. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 82 74 84 / 20 70 30 40
STT 75 84 74 84 / 40 70 30 40

[cycloneye]

Now that we need the radar in this rainy weather pattern these days,is out.Hopefully,it is fixed as soon as posible.Here is a message about this:

MESSAGE DATE: MAY 10 2011 20:30:00
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN HAS LOST
THE DATA FEED FROM THE FAA/NWS SAN JUAN WSR-88D. THIS APPEARS TO BE
DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE PROBLEM. THE FAA AOCC...LOCAL FAA
TECHNICIANS AND THE PHONE COMPANY HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED. NO TIME FOR
DATA RESTORATION IS YET KNOWN.