Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Low pressure in the Eastern Caribbean is what GFS shows for next weekend.Let's see if is only going to be a rainmaker or is more than that.

[xironman]

Euro shows an old low pressure hanging around the northern gulf a the end of next week.

[cycloneye]

This GFS run in a very long range form may be the first true sign that things may start to jell in the Caribbean by the last days of this month.Of course,is long range,so caution has to be taken,and is better to wait a few more days to see if this model continues to show it and if other models join.



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[cycloneye]

For a second day in a row,GFS shows lower pressures in the Western Caribbean.As I said in the countdown thread,time may be running out to have development before June 1rst,but let's see if the models turn bullish about this.



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[Ivanhater]

There are signs pointing to some mischief in the Western Caribbean soon.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS showing a tropical storm near the end of May

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[cycloneye]

Nothing solid yet that may indicate tropical development before June 1,only lower pressures in the Caribbean.But we will continue to watch the models to see if they turn more bullish or not in the comming days.



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[ROCK]

yeah loses it in the 6z also... I would watch the CMC as we get another week under our belt. Just a hunch...

[cycloneye]

Did someone mentioned CMC? Something moves over me in PR and develops to the north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

Did someone mentioned CMC? Something moves over me in PR and develops to the north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

now if I could only do that with lotto numbers...

[cycloneye]

Despite sporadic scenarios that GFS,CMC and NOGAPS have been showing,there is anything solid that may show tropical development for the rest of May for the EPAC and Atlantic.And the ECMWF hasn't showed anything yet either. Let's see if the models reach a consensus on something developing in the comming days on both the EPAC and Atlantic,or we will be looking at a slow start for both basins.

[ROCK]

18z GFS basically lower pressures across the carib in the long range.....still 4-6 weeks before we see something IMO....

water is toasty though...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

GFS shows a small disturbance developing in the EPAC 7 days from now. Let's see if other models join on this.



Graphic uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Finnally,ECMWF shows something in the Atlantic just SSE of Bermuda at 120 hours. Something tropical, subtropical or not?



And at 144 hours.

[Huracan Gorges]

GFS showing A Low presssure system Develope During the Carribbean the Next 7 Days From Now...........The Ilands Of the Carribbean sould monitor this Models during the Uppcomming Days And Weeks.......

[Huracan Gorges]

The GFS shows a small Disturbance during the The next 7 Days From Now ......Interesting........The Carribbean should monitor this Situcion and fallow the Cumputer Models.....

[cycloneye]

Bienvenido a el foro.Te va a gustar este sitio ya que tiene muchos foros sobre el tiempo y el ambiente es tranquilo.Si tienes preguntas,no dejes de hacerlas,porque se te van a contestar.Aqui tenemos muchos proffesionales meteorologos que nos ayudan a analizar todo sobre los huracanes y el tiempo en general.No dejes de ir a ese sitio que te di en el link para que pongas las observaciones en tu area.

Welcome to storm2k.I am in San Juan so we are on the same place.Enjoy the board and any questions that you may have,dont hesitate to ask.Also,there is a thread for all who live in the Caribbean and Central America,where you can stop by and post weather observations from Bayamon.That thread is located at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[Steve H.]

NOGAPS showing some sort of disturbance in the Caribbean, then approaching Cuba. Getting closer to that time of year.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles are showing lower pressures in the Caribbean on the long range.But the other models continue quiet,so nothing is imminent to develop anytime soon.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Dean. First week of June development is not that rare. It certainly looks like pressures will be lowering in the West Caribbean a good bit, so it could spark something.