ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

I agree, ENSO is very similar to '08, maybe a tab warmer currently and like in '08 I don't see any rapid widespread warm up to indicate that we will have a weak El Nino by the heart of hurricane season, but what is scarier looking is how much warmer the Atlantic MDR is compared to this time of the year in '08.

May 8th, 2008


May 9th, 2009

[cycloneye]

Here is another graphic that shows how the nino 3.4 area has behaved since 2004 until today.

[cycloneye]

Australian 5/11/11 update of ENSO

No surprise here as we know La Nina is fading and Neutral conditions will take over during the Summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Issued on Wednesday 11 May | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The 2010−11 La Niña event is nearing its end, with most indicators approaching neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, with neutral conditions likely to persist through the austral winter.

Steady warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean since mid-January has resulted in near-normal ocean temperatures. Atmospheric indicators of La Niña are now responding to these changes in the ocean and an active Madden Julian Oscillation, resulting in a weakening of trade winds, changes in cloudiness and an easing of typical La Niña pressure patterns. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which recorded its highest April value since 1971, has dropped from above +25 to +11 in the past fortnight.

[xironman]

Does anyone know the skill of the POAMA model on that site? Seems like an outlier.

[cycloneye]

CFS model continues to forecast neutral conditions for the summer and fall.

[NDG]

I think I will stick my neck out and say that I feel very confident that ENSO conditions will remain neutral through the hurricane season, this will not be a repeat of 2006 & 2009 in which we saw neutral conditions give in to a weak El Nino by the heart of the hurricane season. I think the reason we will not see a repeat of those years is because we are coming out of a much stronger La Nina episode compared to those two years, by this time in 2006 & 2009 ENSO regions were much warmer already than what they are now.

[xironman]

Neither of of those years even made the Nina threshold http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[NDG]

They may not have been full blown La Ninas but definite weak La Ninas, I remember clearly that both winters of 05/06 & 08/09 were very dry here in FL & most of gulf coast, typical of La Nina winters.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/16/11 Weekly update

Is now almost neutral.

Niño 4= -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.4ºC
Niño 3= -0.2ºC
Niño1+2= 0.9ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

ECMWF latest update on May 15 shows Neutral to weak el nino conditions during the summer,then going down to only Neutral by the fall.

[xironman]

Do you know when the regular Euro update happens? Really need to wait through the Spring uncertainty to get a decent forecast. Obviously I am a fan of this turning into a weak nino as that results in wild east coast winter weather. Note how the wind anomalies are turn more favorable for at least some warming.

[cycloneye]

To answer your question,they always release the new updates on the 22nds of the month.

[cycloneye]

All ENSO models May update

The majority are in Neutral status when the peak of the season is around (ASO)

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... pdate.html

[cycloneye]

ECMWF May update is Warm Neutral,but not going into El Nino status.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/23/11 Weekly Update=Nino 3.4 up to -0.2C
Last week,it was at -0.4C. In other words,ENSO is in Neutral status,but unofficially,until they proclaim it in the next couple of weeks.

Niño 4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4= -0.2ºC
Niño 3= 0.0ºC
Niño1+2= 0.5ºC



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Australian ENSO Update at 5/25/11=La Nina reign is over

Neutral conditions are taking over.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Kingarabian]

So with a neutral ENSO, does that typically mean a bit more e-pac activity than we had in last years season?

[cycloneye]

So with a neutral ENSO, does that typically mean a bit more e-pac activity than we had in last years season?

Yes,more active EPAC with Neutral ENSO.

[NDG]

So with a neutral ENSO, does that typically mean a bit more e-pac activity than we had in last years season?

Yes,more active EPAC with Neutral ENSO.

Yes a little more active than last year, but I believe NOAA forecasts that it will still stay below average.

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think we might get into an El Nino this year?