First Tropical Wave! (Dropped from Surface Analysis)

[cycloneye]

Here is the first tropical wave in the charts.It will be in the 2:05 PM EDT discussion.Of course,nothing will develop from it,but is a sign that we are almost on hurricane season time.

[Macrocane]

Well it was about time, I was kind of worried that they hadn't showed yet.

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion about the first wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ...OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NE BRAZIL WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 7N38W TO 2N42W. THE WAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A LOW
AMPLITUDE MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ON SATELLITE
DATA WITH THE WAVE EMERGING FROM WEST AFRICA ON MAY 12. THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS THIS WAVE LACKS OF CYCLONIC
CURVATURE...WITH NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS.
VERY WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

5/16/11 at 8:05 AM EDT


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 02N48W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A NORTHWARD
BULGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS ALSO INDICATES
WEAK TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

[cycloneye]

We can continue tracking the first tropical wave. 5/16/11 at 2:05 PM EDT


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL
FROM 10N44W TO 1N48W. THE WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 5-8 KT.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A BROAD MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS REVEALS
VERY LITTLE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
THE AXIS...AND ENE WINDS UP TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE REMAINING
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 7N BETWEEN 43W-53W
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

[cycloneye]

5/16/11 at 8:05 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N44W
TO 2N48W DRIFTING WESTWARD. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD MOISTURE
SURGE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

[cycloneye]

5/17/11 at 2:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N48W 3N39W.

[cycloneye]

5/17/11 at 8:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN SECTIONS OF COASTAL BRAZIL AND SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA
ELSEWHERE OVER LAND FROM 3S TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST BETWEEN
45W AND 57W.

[cycloneye]

5/17/11 at 2:05 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA MOVING W AT 5 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

[cycloneye]

5/17/11 at 8:05 PM EDT It's crawling westward.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AS OF 21 UTC...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 54W AND S
OF 9N THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA MOVING W AT 5 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

[cycloneye]

5/18/11 at 2:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL SURINAME. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM LAND TO 8N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W...
AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 56W.

[cycloneye]

5/18/11 at 8:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/556 TO THE SOUTH
OF 11N. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
NORTHERN BRAZIL ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 52W IN FRENCH
GUIANA AND 60W IN GUYANA.

[cycloneye]

5/18/11 at 2:05 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
THROUGH GUYANA MOVING W AT 10 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-9N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

[cycloneye]

5/18/11 at 8:05 EDT Hey peeps,you can chime in and comment about this first wave of 2011.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA DRIFTING W AT LESS THAN 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
NARROW AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM
E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 9N.

[RL3AO]

Whats there to talk about? Its a wave over South America. Wait until it hit the EPac.

[cycloneye]

5/19/11 at 2:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N. THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

[cycloneye]

5/19/11 at 8:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. THE WAVE STRADDLES THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

[cycloneye]

5/19/11 at 2:05 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING W AT
10 KT. THE WAVE EXTENDS OVER VENEZUELA TO 4N. IT IS EMBEDDED IN
A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 60W-64W.

[cycloneye]

5/19/11 at 8:05 PM EDT Wave was relocated back three longitudes.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED ALONG 62W/63W S OF 13N TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY..AND HOVMOLLER PLOTS MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

[cycloneye]

5/20/11 at 2:05 AM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM
5N TO 9N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W.