WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[climateconcern23]

98w

[phwxenthusiast]

excuse me sir, but you have to follow the rules for creating a thread, especially the title...

anway, yes, there's a new invest out there: 98W

from NRLMRY...

btw, 00z Euro developing a TS at around 120 hour and moving westward, possibility towards the Philippines.... not sure though if this current Invest is the one Euro's hinting at...

[dexterlabio]

So I'm here again for the shear tendency. Hoho.



Yes, Euro shows something forming next week and tracking west to northwest towards Northern PI or Taiwan (?) but I don't think this is the invest euro is talking about.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like it could be something on down the road.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looking semi organized this morning...

[climateconcern23]

Hi Mr. phwxenthusiast,

Thanks for reminding me about the rule. c:


climateconcern23

[climateconcern23]

98w seems disorganizing on its past 3hrs previewed.

[phwxenthusiast]

no problem...!

i think we'll see it flare up again today...

CMC and UKMET still liking this current threat... EURO still has that TS for next week as well...

[dexterlabio]

There was slight change in the euro models, something will develop near Visayas and track WNW towards Bicol area. So we can see that models change from time to time so I think we should not focus on the long-range forecast tracks as for now. They could be backing out on this later on, but definitely it would be good to observe and wait for the developments.

[phwxenthusiast]

i'm telling you, this EURO has become one stubborn model... LOL
the next TS keeps on being pushed back to 240hr...

[Extratropical94]

GFS really picking up, moderate tropical storm on next Thursday.

[phwxenthusiast]

yup both the GFS and the EURO seemed to have jumped on board... genesis likely within the next 2 days woot!

[cycloneye]

It looks better than a few days ago.

[oaba09]

There was slight change in the euro models, something will develop near Visayas and track WNW towards Bicol area. So we can see that models change from time to time so I think we should not focus on the long-range forecast tracks as for now. They could be backing out on this later on, but definitely it would be good to observe and wait for the developments.

This is the reason why I don't read into long range models too much....

[climateconcern23]

98w began to develop slightly while still off ssw of guam.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 142.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN
ANTICYCLONIC POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. A 182016Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED FEATURE WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY
VALUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA
OUTLINES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THIS
SUPPORTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. DUE TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

[dexterlabio]

So the euro shows a track almost similar to Aere.

[ManilaTC]

GFS really picking up, moderate tropical storm on next Thursday.

Hey man, can you supply me with a link for this one? NCEP and GFS models?

[Extratropical94]

No problem, try this page here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed with GFS really picking up on this NGPS not so much, that was kind of the same way with the initiation for Aere, just FYI.