WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is starting to look rather organized now, some good outflow along the eastern portion of it right now.

[Macrocane]

Looks promising, yeah it only needs to improve the outflow in the western part and it could start a steady strengthening, of course that's my unofficial opinion.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to fair by JTWC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
142.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 141.2E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 19/1631Z
AMSR-E 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH
CURVED BANDING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT IS STILL MINIMAL TO THE NORTH OF 98W. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WEST. SURFACE PRESSURES AT
PTYA AND PGUA HAVE DECREASED ONE TO TWO MILLIBARS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS TO AROUND 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 98W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[phwxenthusiast]

EURO showing a potent system out of this one, yikes!

[P.K.]

18Z:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 142E ALMOST STATIONARY

[cycloneye]

Organizing at a good rate.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[StormingB81]

ECMWF has it coming towards Okinawa on Memorial Day Weekend..yea that forecast can change...lol

[StormingB81]

ECMWF has it coming towards Okinawa on Memorial Day Weekend..yea that forecast can change...lol

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Infdidoll]

So if the rapture doesn't get us tomorrow, then a typhoon may get us next week?

In all seriousness, looks like a fun one to track! On satellite, looks like outflow is starting to take shape.

[cycloneye]

Guam NWS Special Statement

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
926 AM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

PMZ161-171-201100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
926 AM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W IS INTENSIFYING AND DRIFTING WESTWARD
TOWARD FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP...

SLOWLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W IS CENTERED NEAR 8.5 AND
141.5E EARLY THIS FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF FAIS ATOLL AND WERE MOVING WESTWARD. GUSTY WINDS TO
TO 40 MPH AND ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 900 AM CHST...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.5
DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.5 DEGREES EAST. SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THIS IS APPROXIMATELY...110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
AND 495 MILES EAST OF KOROR.


HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY
GO THROUGH DIURNAL CYCLES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE YAP STATE AREA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM
THE YAP WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE ON GUAM...THE LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AND
THE YAP STATE RADIO STATION. SMALL BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION AND STAY IN PROTECTED WATERS OR IN PORT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SMALL BOATS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

[StormingB81]

You know I would not be suprised at all if we had our first warning from JTWC at 6pm tonight this is looking good. going to be a long week...bringing in the official start to typhoon season wioth a bang.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 141.5E TO 10.2N 138.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 192330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 141.3E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAPID
DEVELOPMENT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC TURNING
OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ALONG WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. LOW LEVEL INFLOW LINES ARE EVIDENT WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO BE
SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 192235Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC AND
POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, AND IS GETTING GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE, IT WILL GAIN
LATITUDE AND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. OUTFLOW MAY EVEN START
TO VENT INTO A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INITIALIZING WELL AS THE
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE STRONGER THAN THE 18Z MODELS HAD AT 00Z,
THEREFORE GUIDANCE IS SPARSE. GFS AND ECMWF, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
NOGAPS, HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA AND
INTENSIFYING AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER: NEAR TAUS 48-
60. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH BEFORE THAT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210100Z.
//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
111 PM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

PMZ161-171-201100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
111 PM CHST FRI MAY 20 2011

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 98W AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP...

AT NOON CHST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W WAS CENTERED NEAR 8.7 AND
141.3E. HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
AND FAIS AND SOUTHEAST OF YAP. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND ROUGH SEAS
OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE LIKELY NEAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT 1200 PM CHST...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W WAS NEAR LATITUDE 8.7
DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3 DEGREES EAST. SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THIS IS APPROXIMATELY...90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
AND 480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR.


THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY GO
THROUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING AND STRENGTHENING PERIODS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE YAP STATE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOVEMENT IS
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 MPH.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR WEATHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE FROM
THE YAP WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE ON GUAM...THE LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AND
THE YAP STATE RADIO STATION. SMALL BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION AND STAY IN PROTECTED WATERS OR IN PORT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SMALL BOATS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AND UPDATE THIS STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

[oaba09]

This thing organized pretty fast......I guess the summer season will be a short one this year...

[climateconcern23]

98w upgraded to good already.
-JTWC

[climateconcern23]

this system gonna be an enormous threat to the Philippines. BTW ECMWF has show that it will not make landfall to any part of Philippine islands.