WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 08.9N 138.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 10.0N 136.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[cycloneye]

Latest

Sandy,you posted a very old image as NRL site is having some problems at their front page.Here is the latest image.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Long range for GFS shows it tracking up here towards the Kanto Plain, yet I don't think it will get that far, the JET on that day per GFS is lingering directly over honshu, so given that it should just skirt the southern end of Japan, very long range and will be ET by that time. But something to think about if it does get out that far..... Could bring some heavy precip for the tsunami hit areas.





Also was any one else having issues with getting on storm2k?

[StormingB81]

There is a wide range of models going from way west of Okinawa to Way East of okinawa....should be an intresting week of trackign this especially sicne it seems all our in line with saying it will be a major typhoon..

[RobWESTPACWX]

phwxenthusiast posted this to westernpacific.com while I am unable too, really a great video! So thanks!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NikH09G_pcM[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

There is a wide range of models going from way west of Okinawa to Way East of okinawa....should be an intresting week of trackign this especially sicne it seems all our in line with saying it will be a major typhoon..

That is a big concern here as well, two storms in May raising the COR condition is pretty incredible.

[Infdidoll]

phwxenthusiast posted this to westernpacific.com while I am unable too, really a great video! So thanks!

Great job phwxenthusiast! Thanks for keeping up the great updates!

[StormingB81]

We were "joking" yesterday saying that of all storms this one would hit just to mess with our long holiday weekend...not that we want it or wishing it but that would be our luck!

[RobWESTPACWX]

A little now casting.. But had a pk wind gust 34kts in Yap 30 min ago, at 1231Z, so seeing some tropical storm strengths gust.

METAR PTYA 211252Z 13015G27KT 10SM -SHRA BKN015CB OVC120 26/25 A2966 RMK PK WND 13034/31 TSE50 CB VC ALQDS SLP044 T02590246

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 09.2N 137.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 10.1N 135.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[StormingB81]

starting to look better organized the last couple of hours

[cycloneye]

JTWC Upgrades to Tropical Storm

But JMA still has it as TD.

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 9.2N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.8N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.4N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.9N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.2N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.6N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 137.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

wow look at that 120 hr forecast 105g130..

[cycloneye]

The graphic has been updated to reflect the 1500z JTWC warning.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

And here is the 1500z JTWC prognostic reasoning discussion.

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (FOUR) 04W
/WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM SOUTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211113Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP NEAR CPA
TIME (11Z) INDICATED A MSLP OF 999 MB AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22
KNOTS WITH AN OBSERVED MAX GUST OF 42 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
REGION OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING DEVELOPMENT, HAS RELAXED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS MINIMAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND UNDER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. IN PARTICULAR, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE NEAR TAU 48, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
POLEWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY TAU 48, WITH GFS AND JGSM TRACKING THE
SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD AND GFDN AND WBAR TRACKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. THIS FORECAST FAVORS EGRR, ECMWF, AND
NOGAPS, WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH CONSENSUS AND HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 04W IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STR AND STEADILY
INTENSIFY UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED

[ManilaTC]

Ive been looking for this kinds of images from the JTWC ever since i heard of them. Where did you get this man?

[cycloneye]

ClarkEligue,they had it last night at their site.

[cycloneye]

Loop from Yap. Looks better which each new frame.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamyap.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Typically JTWC does not post that product because it is not designed for briefing purposes, its more a less a tool for forecasting but the general public does not understand that since we all know some times storms do completely opposite of what the models say. That is why I was surprised it was posted.

[HURAKAN]

Latest