
WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm (1102/04W)

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Wondering how much we're going to have to worry about this one in Okinawa...Might be a tense weekend! Better prepare for the worst and hope for the best, I guess. Been quite a while since Okinawa has been directly hit by a major typhoon. I'd also be sweating bullets if I were in the Aparri area. Impressive system.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Hey everyone, PHWxenthusist94 posted another great video, just wanted to share it here... He really gives a great shoutout to storm2k on here.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOSYcNWcICg[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOSYcNWcICg[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Infdidoll wrote:Wondering how much we're going to have to worry about this one in Okinawa...Might be a tense weekend! Better prepare for the worst and hope for the best, I guess. Been quite a while since Okinawa has been directly hit by a major typhoon. I'd also be sweating bullets if I were in the Aparri area. Impressive system.
Same here, the uncertainty really is making life a little stressful.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
JMA Upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm Songda
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 22 May 2011
<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°10'(10.2°)
E135°55'(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 22 May 2011
<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°10'(10.2°)
E135°55'(135.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10'(11.2°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°10'(12.2°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)
<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)
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WTPQ20 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1102 SONGDA (1102) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 10.2N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 11.2N 133.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241200UTC 12.2N 131.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251200UTC 13.5N 129.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1102 SONGDA (1102) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 10.2N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 11.2N 133.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 241200UTC 12.2N 131.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 251200UTC 13.5N 129.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
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JTWC at 55/70 knots:
WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.7N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.2N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.7N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.7N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 135.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Songda looks kinda weird in the latest satpics. I don't know if it's me. Can somebody tell why the deep convection became somewhat "scattered"? 

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
The 12:00 UTC JMA 5 day track.


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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
JTWC 12:00 UTC track comes very close to the NE tip.


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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Looks like a small hot-tower on feeder band.
Core has heated up to 2C.


Core has heated up to 2C.

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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Songda reminds me of Super Typhoon Pongsona back in December 2002 which hit Guam. Pongsona was forecast to recurve east of Guam and the Marianas and head out to the open pacific but instead Pongsona hit guam directly with 130 knots sustained 1 minute winds! We experience heavy damage but I think where ever songda hits,she will be more powerful ,and more destructive because of that large path of warm water and little interaction with land.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun May 22, 2011 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SONGDA - Severe Tropical Storm (1102/04W)
Defiantly do think by 00Z or 10PST we will see this upgraded to typhoon. Given the amount of convection, ASCAT imagery is showing upwards of 50kts away from the core right now as well.
*Also a little nowcasting, YAP and Palau continue to report only 10kt winds but both show CB in all quadrants the last several hours.

*Also a little nowcasting, YAP and Palau continue to report only 10kt winds but both show CB in all quadrants the last several hours.

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It also looks kinda disorganized for me, maybe because the deep convection is scattered and somewhat dissociated at the center. Though those "chunks" of deep convective clouds seem to be wrapping around a center. I don't know if it got sheared or there is something else going on with it.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re:
dexterlabio wrote:It also looks kinda disorganized for me, maybe because the deep convection is scattered and somewhat dissociated at the center. Though those "chunks" of deep convective clouds seem to be wrapping around a center. I don't know if it got sheared or there is something else going on with it.
Another factor on what may have occured with the system in the past 6 hours is some dry air entered into the big circulation as this system covers a big area.
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