WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[CrazyC83]

Looks to have peaked at about 60 kt IMO at 0600Z, and is down since.

[cycloneye]

The system covers a big area.Moisture is plenty to feed into the center and shut out any dry air that entrained earlier.

[KWT]

Does look like its suffering somewhat from shear at the moment, though that being said the actual circulation looks pretty good, esp at mid levels.

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:00 UTC Warning=50kts

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 22 May 2011
<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25'(10.4°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E240km(130NM)
W200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30'(11.5°)
E132°35'(132.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°35'(12.6°)
E130°40'(130.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°20'(14.3°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

[GCANE]

It looks like the anti-cyclone has move farther away west from the LLC and a UL jet may be over it.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[KWT]

The thing is it seems to have quiten a good structue, just seems to have lost some of its convection. I think it'll probably bounce back strongly based on that.

Either way gonna have to watch this system closely over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Infdidoll,StormingBBI in Okinawa and Rob in Japan,read the blue sentence at the below discussion by JTWC at 1800z warning.

PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.2N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.8N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.1N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.4N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 134.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 221702Z AMSR-E
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 221614Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 04W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE EAST OF TAIWAN TOWARD
OKINAWA AND WESTERN HONSHU AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS NOW SUPPORTING A
RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND TRACK EAST OF LUZON. THIS FORECAST IS,
THEREFORE, POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND EAST. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR
115 KNOTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

I see they are still calling for that pretty agressive 115kts, may not be a bad call if it can just sort itself out a little over the next 2-3 days...

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, cycloneye. Already started making preparations here. I think I may go shopping today before word gets out. Having a pretty good-sized population that are new here or have never experienced a typhoon, things are going to get crazy here in a few days. This one is particularly worrisome being that it looks like it could stay over open water.

[cycloneye]

Visible image.

[JTE50]

Thanks, cycloneye. Already started making preparations here. I think I may go shopping today before word gets out. Having a pretty good-sized population that are new here or have never experienced a typhoon, things are going to get crazy here in a few days. This one is particularly worrisome being that it looks like it could stay over open water.

Any US Airlines fly in there?

[StormingB81]

I have everything charged and all non parrishables bought..I got the typhoon lights ready to go so I will just wait..even if this one doesnt come we already have our typhoon kit all ready.

[cycloneye]

Dvorak SSD T numbers are now up to 65kts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

22/2032 UTC 10.9N 134.7E T4.0/4.0 SONGDA -- West Pacific

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, cycloneye. Already started making preparations here. I think I may go shopping today before word gets out. Having a pretty good-sized population that are new here or have never experienced a typhoon, things are going to get crazy here in a few days. This one is particularly worrisome being that it looks like it could stay over open water.

Any US Airlines fly in there?

Unfortunately, they don't, but here are the carriers serviced at Naha:

Airlines Servicing Naha Airport Main terminal – Japan Domestic flights
ANA (All Nippon Airways) – Haneda (Tokyo), Itami, Kansai, Kobe, Fukuoka, Nagoya (Chubu), Niigata, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Ishigaki, Miyako,

JAL (Japan Airlines) - Haneda (Tokyo), Itami, Kansai, Kobe, Fukuoka, Nagoya (Chubu),

JTA (Japan Transocean Air) - Haneda (Tokyo), Kansai, Kobe, Fukuoka, Fukushima, Komatsu, Okayama, Takamatsu, Matsuyama, Kochi, Kitakyusyu, Ishigaki, Miyako, Kumejima

RAC (Ryukyu Air Commuter) – Amami, Kumejima, Yoron, Minami Daitou, Kita Daitou, Aguni, Yonaguni

Skymark Airlines – Haneda (Tokyo)


Airlines Servicing Naha Airport International terminal
China Airline – Taipei Taiwan *daily
Hong Kong Express Airways - Hong Kong *daily
Asiana Airline - Seoul Korea
China Eastern Airline - Shang Hai


Let me know if you're coming this way and need any help with travel plans accommodations, etc.

[Infdidoll]

Thanks, cycloneye. Already started making preparations here. I think I may go shopping today before word gets out. Having a pretty good-sized population that are new here or have never experienced a typhoon, things are going to get crazy here in a few days. This one is particularly worrisome being that it looks like it could stay over open water.

Any US Airlines fly in there?

Also to note, it seems most U.S. Airlines flights go into Tokyo, following by a fairly short ANA or Al Nippon hop to Okinawa.

[KWT]

Nice convective burst I see with this system near the center, will be interesting to see what it looks like in 24hr.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:00 UTC Warning=50kts

Still no upgrade to Typhoon status.

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 23 May 2011
<Analyses at 23/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°50'(10.8°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E240km(130NM)
W200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E130°05'(130.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

[rdhdstpchld]

New here - just a random deployed spouse sitting on Okinawa watching another holiday weekend go down the crapper...LOL. At least it will be more than just crummy rainstorms...Infidoll - agreed on the commissary thing...tho it's funny to watch the locals chuckle at us as we stock up. They don't shut down until the eye is upon us...I on the other hand, will have kids in house for three days prior and after - and probably miss a few days of school out of the deal too...blech