WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[GCANE]

[rdhdstpchld]

FWIW - this just came out on email...again, FWIW...still not sure how this will or will not matter...it's not very clear; sure would have been nice to have a sentence saying "...which would mean XYZ for Okinawa" -- but whatever....figured maybe some of you could extrapolate something useful out of it...



There has been an update to the forecasted path of Tropical Storm Songda. It
appears that the cold frontal system blocking the path of this storm will
move out, allowing this storm to continue to move Northwest and turn at a
much later point.

Attached is the latest forecast chart from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
The CPA to Kadena is currently 323 NM to the Southwest at 28/1500L. As newer
forecast models come in we will be able to better predict this storm's
movement and whether or not it will affect us.

[oaba09]

PAGASA is now closely monitoring this system...



Tropical Storm "CHEDENG" has accelerated slightly as it continues to move in a West Northwest direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 795 kms East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Coordinates: 11.2°N, 133.8°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 120 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
540 kms East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Wednesday morning:
360 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Thursday morning:
265 km North Northeast of Virac, Cantanduanes or
250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora

[RobWESTPACWX]

GCANE, could you please post the link to this product?

[ManilaTC]

GCANE, could you please post the link to this product?

Its at http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

[ManilaTC]

806
FXXT03 EGRR 230600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.05.2011



SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SONGDA ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 134.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.05.2011 10.6N 134.1E STRONG
12UTC 23.05.2011 11.4N 132.3E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.05.2011 12.1N 130.9E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.05.2011 11.8N 129.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.05.2011 12.1N 127.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.05.2011 12.7N 126.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.05.2011 13.7N 125.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.05.2011 14.9N 123.9E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.05.2011 17.0N 122.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.05.2011 18.6N 121.0E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.05.2011 19.7N 121.2E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2011 20.9N 122.2E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2011 22.6N 122.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

This model forecast brings it across Cagayan-Isabela in Northern Luzon.
This storm MAY turn even more west than previously thought.

[KWT]

Microwave imkagery looks abit better then I was expecting, an eye is present there which suggests 60kts is a good call.

Track does seem to suggest Luzon is going to need to watch this closely, these systes typically can go either way from this position.

[dexterlabio]

It seems that the whole system is tearing apart (?) but theres a burst of deep convection at the center. Is it because of the shear, and will it affect the storm's intensity?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Pat or Phwxentusist posted this earlier today, another good update since he is covering for me while I can't post these videos. I think its a great run down on the system. Let us know what you think!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcsznZ9EXOA[/youtube]

[ManilaTC]

I posted this track map on my tumblr site.
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_llng0lDQPy1qk1jcvo1_500.jpg

[ManilaTC]

This is from the 0600Z warnings by the way
With this disclaimer:

DISCLAIMER: DO NOT USE FOR LIFE OR DEATH DECISIONS. FOR INFORMATION USE ONLY. PLEASE RELY ON YOUR LOCAL WARNING AGENCIES FOR FURTHER ADVISE.

[oaba09]

STS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 23 May 2011
<Analyses at 23/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°35'(11.6°)
E132°10'(132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE280km(150NM)
SW200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°40'(12.7°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°25'(16.4°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Radius of probability circle 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N24°40'(24.7°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(15kt)
Radius of probability circle 560km(300NM)

[HURAKAN]

latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 12.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.7N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 14.4N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.1N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 131.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

[oaba09]

based on the latest sat loops, it seems to be moving westwards at the moment...

[oaba09]

ECMWF's forecast for friday

[KWT]

Strong system there on the ECM hitting Luzon, personally I think thats probably what will happen as well...

JWTC track will only have to be slightly shifted westwards for there to be effects on Luzon.

[dexterlabio]

based on the latest sat loops, it seems to be moving westwards at the moment...

Yes it appears to be going westwards. Songda had some issues with its circulation within the past few hours and maybe that affected its motion. Sometimes I thought this storm is going to be torn apart because of the previous sat images but the most recent satpic somehow shows that the storm is again pulling itself together. Here is the recent satellite pic from PAGASA.