ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 92L-Models
507
WHXX01 KWBC 231555
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1555 UTC MON MAY 23 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110523 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110523 1200 110524 0000 110524 1200 110525 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 56.5W 28.2N 54.8W 27.9N 54.6W 27.6N 55.0W
BAMD 28.1N 56.5W 27.6N 52.6W 27.7N 50.4W 28.2N 49.4W
BAMM 28.1N 56.5W 27.8N 53.8W 27.3N 52.7W 26.8N 51.6W
LBAR 28.1N 56.5W 27.7N 53.3W 28.1N 51.1W 29.2N 50.0W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110525 1200 110526 1200 110527 1200 110528 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 55.5W 27.8N 56.2W 29.2N 57.3W 30.3N 59.2W
BAMD 28.8N 49.1W 30.2N 48.5W 31.2N 48.9W 32.7N 51.1W
BAMM 26.9N 50.8W 28.7N 49.5W 30.5N 50.7W 32.4N 54.0W
LBAR 31.0N 49.7W 34.8N 51.0W 37.2N 52.8W 38.9N 55.5W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 29.0N LONM12 = 60.0W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 65.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 231555
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1555 UTC MON MAY 23 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110523 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110523 1200 110524 0000 110524 1200 110525 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 56.5W 28.2N 54.8W 27.9N 54.6W 27.6N 55.0W
BAMD 28.1N 56.5W 27.6N 52.6W 27.7N 50.4W 28.2N 49.4W
BAMM 28.1N 56.5W 27.8N 53.8W 27.3N 52.7W 26.8N 51.6W
LBAR 28.1N 56.5W 27.7N 53.3W 28.1N 51.1W 29.2N 50.0W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 34KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110525 1200 110526 1200 110527 1200 110528 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.3N 55.5W 27.8N 56.2W 29.2N 57.3W 30.3N 59.2W
BAMD 28.8N 49.1W 30.2N 48.5W 31.2N 48.9W 32.7N 51.1W
BAMM 26.9N 50.8W 28.7N 49.5W 30.5N 50.7W 32.4N 54.0W
LBAR 31.0N 49.7W 34.8N 51.0W 37.2N 52.8W 38.9N 55.5W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 17KTS 16KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 29.0N LONM12 = 60.0W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 65.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Yeah that is a bit of a surprise I've gotta be honest, not really heard anything about this, mind youI've been too busy looking at the WPAC.
Unlikely to do anything in that position but then again its early in the 'season' so to speak and transition systems do happen from time to time so I'll not rule it totally out...
Unlikely to do anything in that position but then again its early in the 'season' so to speak and transition systems do happen from time to time so I'll not rule it totally out...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion
I'm sure that they're just doing a bit of limbering up with a real live low pressure area out there. Development chances look slim.
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Yeah wxman57, a nice bit of testing can be done with this system before the real fun and games begin some point in the near future.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Models
Well,maybe not a total surprise to have this invest as some models have been showing something in the Atlantic for the past couple of days.
CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
ECMWF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-en ... =Animation
ECMWF ensembles
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-en ... =Animation
GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation
ECMWF
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-en ... =Animation
ECMWF ensembles
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-en ... =Animation
GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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- HURAKAN
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL
BE ISSUED TUESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:i supprise to see area as invest but nhc saw something we didnt know
Well its one of those systems that could possibly go sub-tropical, it does happen from time to time...however its just as likely a case that the NHC are just 'testing' things out for the season with a real low pressure system that is out there.
Looks totally cold cored for now though...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Discussion
18:00z Best track
AL, 92, 2011052318, 01, CARQ, 0, 280N, 548W, 25, 1008, LO
AL, 92, 2011052318, 01, CARQ, 0, 280N, 548W, 25, 1008, LO
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L-Models
The 12z ECMWF shows the low pressure in the next 24 hours,but weakens after that.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:23/1745 UTC 28.0N 54.6W ST1.5 92L -- Atlantic
25 knots
I'm surprised they have given it ST status, I know its just estimates but it really doesn't look much like even a slightly warm cored system to me, then again these systems are best not judged by what they look like most of the time.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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